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Groups > comp.lang.forth > #18361
| From | rickman <gnuarm@gmail.com> |
|---|---|
| Newsgroups | comp.lang.forth |
| Subject | Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? |
| Date | 2012-12-31 11:20 -0500 |
| Organization | A noiseless patient Spider |
| Message-ID | <kbse01$bcb$1@dont-email.me> (permalink) |
| References | (16 earlier) <1679421.j6LZisYWN8@sunwukong.fritz.box> <kbl6h1$6kf$2@dont-email.me> <5365015.aUjuCcv3Ms@sunwukong.fritz.box> <kbq9hj$etg$1@dont-email.me> <2871139.ljD5axdcV5@sunwukong.fritz.box> |
On 12/30/2012 5:41 PM, Bernd Paysan wrote: > rickman wrote: >>> That's German PV. Our weather in south Germany is not that bad as in >>> northern Germany (where it is rainy and windy all year long, which is >>> why wind energy there is much better). In good climate, you harvest >>> twice as much, and in a desert or similar, 3 times as much (if you >>> have clouds and rain for a month per year, you don't lose much). >> >> I don't follow. Your earlier post shows the price per kWHr of PV to >> be >> more than twice the cost of the alternatives. This is not cost >> effective. > > Depends. You still have the 80-20-rule: Only 20% of the power is needed > all day long, 80% needs to be relatively flexible peak power. Can we define the 80/20 rule a bit better? Are you suggesting this applies to a household or to an entire city? All short term fluctuations at a city level would be averaged out so that you would be able to see only daily cycles and affects due to weather, etc. I can't imagine that there would be a 5 to 1 variation in power level over the course of a day during high demand days. Today is a good example. During the day people are using ovens, washers, etc, and at night the heat runs a lot more. If anything there may be a bit more demand at night, but nothing like 5 to 1. > Solar > does not compete with nuclear, because nuclear power stations should not > go up and down with their output. Coal can go up and down slowly, but > you don't want to use them for peak power, as then your power plant cost > is about 4 times as high as it is for constant power (you have it shut > down for half the day, and the other half of the day you ramp it slowly > up to peak and then down again). That's why people use gas engines for > peak power: They are pretty cheap (significantly cheaper than a coal > power plant) and more efficient (and therefore mostly offsetting the > higher cost of gas). However, PV energy is very nice as peak power: It > is produced during those part of the day when it is actually needed. > >> Are you trying to say it is cost effective in other >> locations, just not Germany? > > Yes. I even posted a worldwide map, I post it again: > > http://www.energieinfo.de/eglossar/sonneneinstrahlung.html > > The text is in German, the map is in colors. Should be not so difficult > to understand ;-). > > In Nevada, a solar power plant can compete with an all-day-round running > coal plant, and it produces the power when it's needed, no need to worry > about the night. That may be true in Nevada, but if so, why aren't they building them. I guess this is just starting to happen. >>> Watt peak. The peak is quite different from the average. It's dark >>> at night, and in the morning and evening, the panel shows to the >>> wrong >>> side. And there may be clouds. >> >> Ok, I guess it is obvious that a PV system is sized to the "peak" >> wattage it would put out. The manufacturer can't control your >> installation. > > That's only part of the problem. Right now, when I look outside, there > is not even a sun on the sky. The pale thing up on the sky now is > called "moon", and it is of no use for PV. ;-) I think you figured out > that you can only have 4 hours of peak power on average at your place, > so that would be an average output of just 16.67%. If the cost of installing PV can be cut in half (using the numbers you pointed out the other day), I will be willing to add PV to any of my houses. At current prices I'm not willing to make a 20 year investment. >>> No. AFAIK, companies like First Solar already build plants in >>> Nevada: >>> >>> http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/first-solar-sells-50- > mw- >>> nevada-power-plant_100006200/#axzz2GOUuS2Qv >>> >>> They do make the panels themselves, which means they are probably >>> more expensive than the cheap Chinese panels we use in Germany. >> >> If they are selling electricity from PV they have to be subsidized. > > Why do you think so? Your numbers show the cost of PV to be more than twice that of coal, etc. I think Nevada also has pretty inexpensive coal. So even with a 2:1 improvement in the energy collected, it is going to be more expensive than coal power. >> We had a PV plant in my hometown, Frederick, MD called Solarex. > > Can you go back to the map: > > http://www.energieinfo.de/eglossar/sonneneinstrahlung.html > > Maryland on this map has about 1400 sun hours per year, a bit more than > Germany, but not 2000-3000 (effective, as you can't cost-efficiently > turn your modules, the theoretical 4380 hours per year can't be > achieved) as you can have in dry regions. > >> BP bought them a few years ago and eventually halted their new >> buildout in mid-project and tore it down. > > You should know that the panel prices dropped by a factor of 10 in the > last 10 years - and the biggest drop came when the Chinese entered the > market. A few years ago, an American company: way more expensive > panels. I'm sure it was much more the cost of manufacturing than it had to do with the solar flux at the factory. >> They ended up moving them to Canada. > > Oh, i.e. to a place with even less sunshine than Maryland. How does > that make sense? Maybe the Canadians have some subsidy. How does the solar flux at the manufacturing plant make a difference? They can ship these things anywhere they want. >> They had a large panel array on top of the building facing the highway >> where everyone could see it. I think that was all left behind. Not >> sure if the new owners will be using it or not, it is over 20 years >> old. > > Oh. 20 years ago, solar pannels were really, really expensive. You > would put them on desktop calculators or in space, maybe on a hut out in > the middle of nowhere (where it still is cheaper than 100 miles of line > to get the hut connected). > >> If PV is going to become viable, does it really need hand holding? > > It needs some kicking to get started. Are you familiar with the concept > of investment? You have a great idea, and to make it viable, you need > money, maybe lots of money. You need to improve the implementation, you > need to build factories, you need to build a market by making customers. > This all doesn't happen on its own, it needs some kicking. Companies like BP are already in the business. I don't think BP needs hand holding or third party capital. If it can be profitable, then companies like BP only need to turn the crank and they will make money. If it is not profitable subsidies will only help them get market share early in the game until it does become profitable and everyone else jumps in. I don't see a reason to use tax money to help any given company get early market share. > All our energy sources we have used up to now needed a hell lot kicking, > because this all doesn't happen overnight. If you want to start such an > industry, you need billions of dollars. If you don't invest, it will > not happen. Who is "you"? I don't need to give BP my money to help them make more money. They have much more than I do anyway. If something is profitable there will be many, many investors lining up to give them money. >> We have offered subsidies and loan guarantees and found a lot of >> political pushback when some of the companies failed. Some of the >> names are a bit famous at this point, for having failed. > > All our German PV panel companies failed (recently), the windmill makers > are still doing well, as is the biggest AC converter company. The > Chinese panel makers pushed our panel makers out. If you want to push a > concept, you should not push a particular company, you should let the > market sort it out. So Germany is giving the Chinese subsidies? I think this is an example of why subsidies often don't work. >> I don't think many people think going green is a bad thing, the >> economics are just not practical at this time. > > I understand that. Fiscal cliff included ;-). The fiscal cliff is just politics. By economics, I mean the profit/loss of using green technologies. I don't believe in subsidies, but I do believe in making companies pay for the pollution they create, *all* pollution. If the only way to do that is to add taxes, then I would support taxes on polluters like coal. Then things like PV can be price competitive on an open market. >>> If you like a map, take e.g. this one: >>> >>> http://www.energieinfo.de/eglossar/sonneneinstrahlung.html >>> >>> They don't go into any further details above 2000 full sunny hours >>> per year. >> >> No, I don't see any details at all, no price of the plant, no price of >> the electricity sold, just 50 MW. > > No, that one is a quite different link, you really should look at it. > The other one didn't have much detail, it was just a proof of existence > - there *are* people who do build PV power plants in the US, in places > where it should make sense *now*, even in the bad economy the US > currently is in. Ok, so maybe the numbers are much better in Arizona. So why isn't it being done? The economy has little to do with it. There is still all sorts of capital available if you can make money with it. That's what it comes down to, does it make money? If the answer is yes, it will get built. That's why we have so many coal, petroleum and nuclear fired plants. They are terrible in terms of pollution, but they make money. >> I'm not sure how good the 1.1 or the 1.2 numbers are. I translated >> that into US dollars and I get a 10 year amortization period using >> $0.15 per kWHr and I'm pretty sure this is way high for generation >> costs. > > If you apply German sun hours, this calculation is about right, which is > why we have 11.3 Eurocents/kWh guaranteed for the next 20 years. You > can calculate for a long amorization, and money is dead cheap now (if > you can guarantee that you will pay it back; which, due to the > guaranteed price, you can. Our banks absolutely love to invest money > into green energy due to that fact). > > In Nevada, you can calculate around $0.07 for the kWh. > >> I'm >> billed around $0.07 or $0.08 per kWHr. > > This is a lot cheaper than anywhere in Europe, we have at least $0.20 in > the cheapest parts for normal households. Big industry pays less, > though. Really, not including distribution or transmission? We are now billed separately for this in Maryland. >> I get $0.15 by dividing my >> bill by the kWHr which includes all sorts of non-sense and only >> applies if I actually go off-grid. > > That's a more reasonable figure. This all sorts of non-sense are > actually real costs, very likely fixed. We don't have much fixed per- > year costs in our bills anymore, maximizing the incentive for everybody > to reduce consumption. Though, of course, about 50% of the cost to be > on-grid is really the cost for the grid. Some are fixed costs and of course, profit. But others are fees for promoting energy conservation, for example. Or the PURPA cogeneration surcharge which is around a penny per kWh, IIRC. This is the state response to a federal requirement. Md had built a cogeneration plant in Cumberland (sort of in the boonies) to burn trash and produce electricity. Somehow this is supposed to not produce carbon or something. We pay for all these "green" efforts on our bill. >> But that means I have to store day power for >> night use and you already talked about that. > > Yes, that's the cheaper part. As you are in Maryland, you probably need > to store for several days, as this isn't a desert - this would be not > that cheap. If you are in Nevada or such like, you need only store the > fraction of day use you actually use at night - it's a lot less. Yes, > you will have some cloudy days a year, but then you can use a small > Diesel generator as backup (having such a backup is a good idea if you > go off-grid); that would cost about $500, equivalent for 4kWh of battery > storage. > >> The bottom line is it can take some 15 or even 20 years for PV to even >> pay for itself. BTW, I assumed 4 hours a day at full peak wattage for >> a long term average. Is that close to what you measure? > > I measure ~3 hours a day of full peak wattage for long term average. > >> I expect our weather is similar to yours. > > Your figure matches with the map. 4 hours a day full peak wattage is > likely a good guess for Maryland. > >>> When the subsidy program started, at about .5€/kWh, the break-even >>> point was beyond 15 years, it's now just a bit below 10 years at >>> .11€/kWh for big plants (big plants are somewhat cheaper than the >>> examples, but not >>> that much). Due to the guaranteed price, and since all parts have 20 >>> years warranty, the banks are more than happy to give a low-interest >>> rate credit. >> >> Again, I'm missing something. If PV is more expensive than the other >> forms of power, how can their be *any* break-even point? > > As there is a guaranteed price for green energy (depending on how you > generate it), there *is* a break-even point. This guaranteed price > stays constant for 20 years after you built the plant, afterwards you > can sell for market price. So *who* is guarantying the price? If the government is doing it, then that is another subsidy. >> The warranty >> is a big issue. I don't think that is done here, but I'll look into >> it. > > No, this is a pretty unique program in Germany. For consumer installation that will be a big deal here too. >> Better would be a lease arrangement where I am not a utility at all. >> I let them put the panels on my property and they sell me electricity, >> but pay me rent. That seems very fair to me. I get two prices >> guaranteed for 20 years and don't have to worry about the hardware or >> fluctuating markets. If I could get electricity at even $0.15 per >> kWHr for 20 years (no additional charges) that would be close to a >> breakeven for now and eventually profitable, especially after I get >> the rent check each quarter. > > What rent check? The price for a square mile of Nevada desert is three > squirrels and a dead rattlesnake. If you have a desert in your country, > there's no better way than putting the PV there, and maybe a few large > high voltage DC lines across the country to get it distributed. > > As the grid costs about as much as the energy itself, going off-grid is > the only other viable alternative. Then they have to pay for transmission. My point is that when PV becomes truly competitive, it will need to be located near the consumer. Rather than the consumer investing and installing, the power company or third parties will rent your available space, install the equipment and then sell you the power at a guarantied price. They make all the profit, but they take all the risk. Any excess power is sold back to the grid for more profit. They would then have every incentive to optimize the efficiency and minimize the cost of power. In the US utilities are regulated and allowed a given, fixed profit based on the amount of capital invested. They have little incentive to be inventive or take risk and often drive costs up to make more profit. Private companies thrive on taking risks with big payoffs. I think it will be important to modify the current economic model to promote decentralized power generation. Rick
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The huge Gavino off topic thread was: any misc chip desktop pc yet? rickman <gnuarm@gmail.com> - 2012-12-21 16:57 -0500
Re: The huge Gavino off topic thread was: any misc chip desktop pc yet? the_gavino_himself <visphatesjava@gmail.com> - 2012-12-23 23:13 -0800
Re: The huge Gavino off topic thread was: any misc chip desktop pc yet? Mark Wills <forthfreak@gmail.com> - 2012-12-24 00:43 -0800
Re: The huge Gavino off topic thread was: any misc chip desktop pc yet? rickman <gnuarm@gmail.com> - 2012-12-24 10:34 -0500
Re: The huge Gavino off topic thread was: any misc chip desktop pc yet? the_gavino_himself <visphatesjava@gmail.com> - 2012-12-24 14:28 -0800
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? the_gavino_himself <visphatesjava@gmail.com> - 2012-12-23 22:37 -0800
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? the_gavino_himself <visphatesjava@gmail.com> - 2012-12-23 22:51 -0800
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? Brad Eckert <hwfwguy@gmail.com> - 2012-12-20 08:27 -0800
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? albert@spenarnc.xs4all.nl (Albert van der Horst) - 2012-12-20 18:44 +0000
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? Bernd Paysan <bernd.paysan@gmx.de> - 2012-12-20 21:37 +0100
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? the_gavino_himself <visphatesjava@gmail.com> - 2012-12-23 22:34 -0800
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? rickman <gnuarm@gmail.com> - 2012-12-24 01:47 -0500
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? the_gavino_himself <visphatesjava@gmail.com> - 2012-12-23 23:18 -0800
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? Bernd Paysan <bernd.paysan@gmx.de> - 2012-12-24 15:53 +0100
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? the_gavino_himself <visphatesjava@gmail.com> - 2012-12-24 14:26 -0800
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? Bernd Paysan <bernd.paysan@gmx.de> - 2012-12-25 00:09 +0100
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? Mark Wills <forthfreak@gmail.com> - 2012-12-24 15:29 -0800
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? rickman <gnuarm@gmail.com> - 2012-12-26 10:18 -0500
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? "A. K." <akk@nospam.org> - 2012-12-27 00:35 +0100
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? Bernd Paysan <bernd.paysan@gmx.de> - 2012-12-27 02:25 +0100
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? "A. K." <akk@nospam.org> - 2012-12-27 21:13 +0100
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? Bernd Paysan <bernd.paysan@gmx.de> - 2012-12-27 23:06 +0100
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? "A. K." <akk@nospam.org> - 2012-12-28 01:24 +0100
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? Bernd Paysan <bernd.paysan@gmx.de> - 2012-12-28 23:39 +0100
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? "A. K." <akk@nospam.org> - 2012-12-29 00:32 +0100
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? Bernd Paysan <bernd.paysan@gmx.de> - 2012-12-29 01:05 +0100
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? "A. K." <akk@nospam.org> - 2012-12-29 10:20 +0100
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? rickman <gnuarm@gmail.com> - 2012-12-28 11:03 -0500
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? rickman <gnuarm@gmail.com> - 2012-12-27 16:50 -0500
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? Bernd Paysan <bernd.paysan@gmx.de> - 2012-12-28 02:37 +0100
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? "A. K." <akk@nospam.org> - 2012-12-28 09:15 +0100
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? rickman <gnuarm@gmail.com> - 2012-12-28 11:15 -0500
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? Bernd Paysan <bernd.paysan@gmx.de> - 2012-12-29 01:01 +0100
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? rickman <gnuarm@gmail.com> - 2012-12-30 15:52 -0500
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? Bernd Paysan <bernd.paysan@gmx.de> - 2012-12-30 23:41 +0100
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? rickman <gnuarm@gmail.com> - 2012-12-31 11:20 -0500
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? "A. K." <akk@nospam.org> - 2012-12-31 18:21 +0100
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? rickman <gnuarm@gmail.com> - 2012-12-31 15:41 -0500
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? "A. K." <akk@nospam.org> - 2013-01-01 03:32 +0100
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? Bernd Paysan <bernd.paysan@gmx.de> - 2013-01-02 01:46 +0100
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? rickman <gnuarm@gmail.com> - 2013-01-03 22:36 -0500
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? Brad Eckert <hwfwguy@gmail.com> - 2013-01-08 08:25 -0800
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? rickman <gnuarm@gmail.com> - 2013-01-08 12:46 -0500
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? gavino_himself <visploveslisp@gmail.com> - 2013-01-08 11:38 -0800
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? Brad Eckert <hwfwguy@gmail.com> - 2013-01-09 08:19 -0800
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? rickman <gnuarm@gmail.com> - 2013-01-09 17:52 -0500
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? gavino_himself <visploveslisp@gmail.com> - 2013-01-09 19:45 -0800
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? rickman <gnuarm@gmail.com> - 2013-01-10 17:41 -0500
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? gavino_himself <visploveslisp@gmail.com> - 2013-01-13 18:29 -0800
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? rickman <gnuarm@gmail.com> - 2013-01-14 09:29 -0500
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? gavino_himself <visploveslisp@gmail.com> - 2013-01-14 14:42 -0800
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? rickman <gnuarm@gmail.com> - 2013-01-14 18:25 -0500
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? "A. K." <akk@nospam.org> - 2012-12-31 01:38 +0100
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? Bernd Paysan <bernd.paysan@gmx.de> - 2012-12-31 02:54 +0100
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? Bernd Paysan <bernd.paysan@gmx.de> - 2013-01-05 03:17 +0100
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? rickman <gnuarm@gmail.com> - 2013-01-08 21:23 -0500
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? Bernd Paysan <bernd.paysan@gmx.de> - 2013-01-10 03:44 +0100
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? rickman <gnuarm@gmail.com> - 2013-01-10 18:03 -0500
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? Bernd Paysan <bernd.paysan@gmx.de> - 2013-01-11 02:52 +0100
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? rickman <gnuarm@gmail.com> - 2013-01-13 17:11 -0500
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? gavino_himself <visploveslisp@gmail.com> - 2013-01-13 18:30 -0800
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? Jason Damisch <jasondamisch@yahoo.com> - 2013-01-13 22:54 -0800
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? rickman <gnuarm@gmail.com> - 2013-01-14 09:30 -0500
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? gavino_himself <visploveslisp@gmail.com> - 2013-01-14 14:42 -0800
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? Jason Damisch <jasondamisch@yahoo.com> - 2013-01-14 15:58 -0800
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? Bernd Paysan <bernd.paysan@gmx.de> - 2013-01-15 02:02 +0100
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? Jason Damisch <jasondamisch@yahoo.com> - 2013-01-14 16:13 -0800
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? albert@spenarnc.xs4all.nl (Albert van der Horst) - 2013-01-14 11:10 +0000
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? rickman <gnuarm@gmail.com> - 2013-01-14 09:50 -0500
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? rickman <gnuarm@gmail.com> - 2013-01-14 09:55 -0500
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? Andrew Haley <andrew29@littlepinkcloud.invalid> - 2013-01-14 09:12 -0600
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? Bernd Paysan <bernd.paysan@gmx.de> - 2013-01-14 22:09 +0100
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? rickman <gnuarm@gmail.com> - 2013-01-14 16:17 -0500
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? Bernd Paysan <bernd.paysan@gmx.de> - 2013-01-14 21:20 +0100
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? rickman <gnuarm@gmail.com> - 2013-01-14 16:26 -0500
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? Bernd Paysan <bernd.paysan@gmx.de> - 2013-01-15 02:31 +0100
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? the_gavino_himself <visphatesjava@gmail.com> - 2012-12-23 23:15 -0800
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? visualforth@rocketmail.com - 2012-12-20 17:33 -0800
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? rickman <gnuarm@gmail.com> - 2012-12-21 17:09 -0500
Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? the_gavino_himself <visphatesjava@gmail.com> - 2012-12-23 22:46 -0800
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