Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet?

From	Bernd Paysan <bernd.paysan@gmx.de>
Newsgroups	comp.lang.forth
Subject	Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet?
Date	2012-12-28 02:37 +0100
Organization	1&1 Internet AG
Message-ID	<1679421.j6LZisYWN8@sunwukong.fritz.box> (permalink)
References	(11 earlier) <1565055.eJtB0LI4z1@sunwukong.fritz.box> <kbfvfq$l5h$4@dont-email.me> <50db89d8$0$6575$9b4e6d93@newsspool3.arcor-online.net> <1576161.7924UsucXs@sunwukong.fritz.box> <kbifqi$sfk$1@dont-email.me>

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rickman wrote:

> On 12/26/2012 8:25 PM, Bernd Paysan wrote:
>>
>> Yes, in the meantime, producing your own PV is cheaper than buying it
>> from the net.  Do you really think it's the green energy that makes
>> things expensive?  Come on, get real.  We have local monopolies, the
>> only choice you have to escape their monopoly price is to make your
>> own
>> electricity.  And it *is* cheaper than what they sell you.
> 
> I think that is unique to Germany because PV is not cost effective
> here.
>   When I was young I heard that PV was not quite cost effective but
>   when
> the cost of oil pushed the price of gas to $1.25 a gallon (about a
> quarter Euro per liter), PV would rule.  Later they said when the
> price
> of gas reached $2.50 PV would rule.  We have seen the cost of oil rise
> so that gas was over $4 a gallon and PV still is not even a break
> even.

Not sure where you live, and when you were young.  The guaranteed price 
for large flat-on-the-ground PV is 11.3 Eurocents/kWh (mounting the 
panels on a roof now is more expensive than the panels).  The lowest net 
price you get in Europe is about 17 Eurocents/kWh.  A gallon is about 
30kWh primary energy, so even if you use a highly efficient gas turbine 
with water cycle (65%), your primary energy break even point is 
2€/gallon, not counting net or anything else.

You have to buy the Chinese panels, 1kWp is about 600€ from BYD.  Get an 
AC converter from CEHE (also Chinese, I don't know the price).  A 
complete 10kWp set (without roof mounting) is 10k€ at the moment, i.e. 
1€/installed Wp (a bit more than 10 years ago, it was roughly an order 
of magnitude more expensive).  You can get about 1000kWh/kWp/year in 
Munich, if you are living in a desert, it can be three times as much, 
and you probably don't have any better use of the real estate, anyways.

IMHO, if you plant that sort of PV modules that are used in Germany now 
around death valley (just a few hundred miles from LA, a really big sink 
for energy), you should be able to compete at 0.04$/kWh.  That's 80¢ per 
gallon, if you have a ultra-high efficient gas turbine power station for 
free (which it isn't, and that's assuming that you recap the cost of 
investment within 10 years; the lifetime is significantly longer).

When did you last pay 80¢ per gallon?

Note that when you want to go full PV in your desert village, you need 
some storage.  Accumulator storage is at the moment around 100€/kWh 
(falling), pumped storage hydroelectricity (that's big infrastructure 
for large grids) are at 71€/kWh (rising).

> I'm told the cost of consumer oriented PV devices is coming down and
> it may reach parity with the grid in the next few years... we'll see.

It has already broken through grid parity last year here.  PV is now 
full swing into really high volume cheap mass production.  The problem I 
can see as investor in the US (without the German system of guaranteed 
price) that when I build a PV plant today, competing favorable with coal 
and gas; next year, I'm competing with next year's PV plants, which cost 
maybe 30% less.

So I guess the US has to wait until PV electricity is either 3 times 
cheaper than fossil energy (which it probably already is), or when the 
price level settled.

-- 
Bernd Paysan
"If you want it done right, you have to do it yourself"
http://bernd-paysan.de/

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any misc chip desktop pc yet? the_gavino_himself <visphatesjava@gmail.com> - 2012-12-17 02:26 -0800
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                Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? rickman <gnuarm@gmail.com> - 2013-01-14 16:17 -0500
                Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? Bernd Paysan <bernd.paysan@gmx.de> - 2013-01-14 21:20 +0100
                Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? rickman <gnuarm@gmail.com> - 2013-01-14 16:26 -0500
                Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? Bernd Paysan <bernd.paysan@gmx.de> - 2013-01-15 02:31 +0100
          Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? the_gavino_himself <visphatesjava@gmail.com> - 2012-12-23 23:15 -0800
      Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? visualforth@rocketmail.com - 2012-12-20 17:33 -0800
        Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? rickman <gnuarm@gmail.com> - 2012-12-21 17:09 -0500
        Re: any misc chip desktop pc yet? the_gavino_himself <visphatesjava@gmail.com> - 2012-12-23 22:46 -0800

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