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Re: The "Standards" Game

From Pancho <Pancho.Jones@protonmail.com>
Newsgroups comp.os.linux.misc, alt.comp.os.windows-11
Subject Re: The "Standards" Game
Date 2025-09-25 10:10 +0100
Organization A noiseless patient Spider
Message-ID <10b30u4$67lv$2@dont-email.me> (permalink)
References (10 earlier) <68d1d3e6@news.ausics.net> <10atuhj$2tidd$15@dont-email.me> <68d333e6@news.ausics.net> <10b0pk5$3ljbp$1@dont-email.me> <10b0upf$3mjsl$1@dont-email.me>

Cross-posted to 2 groups.

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On 9/24/25 15:21, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

>> I think TNP is also saddling SMRs with the millstone of a 60 year 
>> expected lifespan. Investors don't like this because there is huge 
>> risk some cheaper energy will take away expected profits in the long 
>> term future. Some of the SMR designers are looking at much shorter 
>> expected lifespans, as low as 5 years. If they can get this to work 
>> economically it is more appealing in that it reduces long term 
>> financial risk and the short lifecycle will allow for much more
>> rapid innovation.
>>
> You have no idea how investment works.
> 

I understand investment, structuring finance, valuing future cash-flows, 
I worked for a bank, it is specifically what I did for a living.

> Once built the running costs of a nuclear power station is
> insignificant. ALL the cashflow goes to servicing the debt, and the
> longer it operates the cheaper it can generate electricity once the debt
> is repaid. Contrariwise the longer it takes to build the more the debt
> piles up because its generating no revenue.
> 
> This is exactly how regulatory ratcheting is used to destroy the
> investment value, that and forcing premature cloisure as happened in
> Germany. Where the government was successfully sued for breach of contract.
> 
> What you have stated is exactly the reverse : Nuclear is highly
> attractive to investors like pension funds swinging huge piles of cash
> and looking for a steady 7.5% return over 60 years or more.
> 
> Their only worry is risk. Not of cheaper technology coming along, but
> that *government will change the rules and force closure*.
> 

You are over-complicating it. You don't need to worry about interest, 
inflation, or rate of return, to understand the problem. You just have 
to balance the amount you pay for the plant up front against the 
expected future profits each year, profits for as long as the plant 
operates.

The size of future profits is dominated by how much you can charge for 
electricity. The German case, of the government shutting you down, is 
just a scenario where you can't charge anything for the electricity.

The problem I'm referring to is technological advance. In a reasonable 
world, we would expect future breakthroughs in technology to make 
electricity cheaper. Maybe Fusion, maybe SMRs (like Copenhagen Atomics). 
In 60 years, it is likely something will turn up. I know you agree with 
me, that electricity could be generated cheaper.

So that is the problem for any finance based upon future cashflows from 
the sale of electricity decades in the future. The amount you can sell 
electricity for will likely decrease. The longer in the future, the more 
likely cheaper alternatives will appear.

It is only now that we see that politicians have made such a pig's ear 
of generation that you see big companies, ai data centres, getting 
scared. They know if the governments continue to mess it up, the first 
people to suffer from rationing will be ai data centres.

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Thread

Re: The "Standards" Game not@telling.you.invalid (Computer Nerd Kev) - 2025-09-22 09:17 +1000
  Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-22 11:46 +0100
    Re: The "Standards" Game Paul <nospam@needed.invalid> - 2025-09-22 16:05 -0400
      Re: The "Standards" Game Charlie Gibbs <cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid> - 2025-09-23 00:07 +0000
        Re: The "Standards" Game rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-09-23 03:03 +0000
        Re: The "Standards" Game Daniel70 <daniel47@nomail.afraid.org> - 2025-09-23 21:03 +1000
          Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-23 13:35 +0100
          Re: The "Standards" Game Frank Slootweg <this@ddress.is.invalid> - 2025-09-23 15:23 +0000
            Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-23 17:30 +0100
              Re: The "Standards" Game Frank Slootweg <this@ddress.is.invalid> - 2025-09-23 18:03 +0000
                Re: The "Standards" Game Charlie Gibbs <cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid> - 2025-09-23 18:29 +0000
                Re: The "Standards" Game "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-23 22:17 +0200
                Re: The "Standards" Game Frank Slootweg <this@ddress.is.invalid> - 2025-09-24 18:43 +0000
              Re: The "Standards" Game "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-23 22:15 +0200
              Re: The "Standards" Game "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-23 22:13 +0200
              Re: The "Standards" Game rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-09-24 03:06 +0000
            Re: The "Standards" Game Daniel70 <daniel47@nomail.afraid.org> - 2025-09-26 23:28 +1000
      Re: The "Standards" Game Jeff Barnett <jbb@notatt.com> - 2025-09-22 18:17 -0600
        Re: The "Standards" Game Daniel70 <daniel47@nomail.afraid.org> - 2025-09-23 21:23 +1000
          Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-23 13:37 +0100
            Re: The "Standards" Game "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-23 22:21 +0200
              Re: The "Standards" Game Bobbie Sellers <bliss-sf4ever@dslextreme.com> - 2025-09-23 14:31 -0700
                Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-24 01:29 +0100
                Re: The "Standards" Game rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-09-24 02:59 +0000
                Submarine testing. "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-24 21:54 +0200
              Re: The "Standards" Game Charlie Gibbs <cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid> - 2025-09-23 21:39 +0000
                Re: The "Standards" Game "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-24 01:00 +0200
                Re: The "Standards" Game Charlie Gibbs <cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid> - 2025-09-24 05:05 +0000
                Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-24 01:29 +0100
              Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-24 01:28 +0100
                Re: The "Standards" Game Charlie Gibbs <cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid> - 2025-09-24 05:06 +0000
                Re: The "Standards" Game "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-24 22:26 +0200
                Re: The "Standards" Game Daniel70 <daniel47@nomail.afraid.org> - 2025-09-28 22:52 +1000
                Re: The "Standards" Game Paul <nospam@needed.invalid> - 2025-09-28 12:00 -0400
                Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-28 17:34 +0100
                Re: The "Standards" Game Daniel70 <daniel47@nomail.afraid.org> - 2025-09-29 23:36 +1000
                Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-29 15:45 +0100
                Re: The "Standards" Game Charlie Gibbs <cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid> - 2025-09-28 18:29 +0000
                Re: The "Standards" Game not@telling.you.invalid (Computer Nerd Kev) - 2025-09-29 08:54 +1000
                Re: The "Standards" Game Paul <nospam@needed.invalid> - 2025-09-28 22:51 -0400
                Re: The "Standards" Game Daniel70 <daniel47@nomail.afraid.org> - 2025-09-29 23:46 +1000
                Opening a submarine "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-24 22:02 +0200
                Re: Opening a submarine Bobbie Sellers <bliss-sf4ever@dslextreme.com> - 2025-09-24 15:26 -0700
                Re: Opening a submarine rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-09-24 23:31 +0000
                Re: Opening a submarine "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-25 13:16 +0200
                Re: Opening a submarine The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-25 09:53 +0100
                Re: Opening a submarine "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-25 13:23 +0200
                Re: Opening a submarine The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-25 13:20 +0100
                Re: Opening a submarine "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-25 22:26 +0200
                Re: Opening a submarine The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-26 10:35 +0100
                Re: Opening a submarine "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-26 13:34 +0200
                Re: Opening a submarine The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-26 12:36 +0100
                Re: Opening a submarine rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-09-25 17:23 +0000
                Re: Opening a submarine "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-25 22:31 +0200
                Re: Opening a submarine rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-09-26 04:18 +0000
          Re: The "Standards" Game rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-09-23 16:44 +0000
            Re: The "Standards" Game Daniel70 <daniel47@nomail.afraid.org> - 2025-09-30 00:02 +1000
      Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-23 11:24 +0100
    Re: The "Standards" Game not@telling.you.invalid (Computer Nerd Kev) - 2025-09-23 08:55 +1000
      Re: The "Standards" Game Charlie Gibbs <cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid> - 2025-09-23 00:07 +0000
        Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-23 12:17 +0100
      Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-23 11:58 +0100
        Re: The "Standards" Game not@telling.you.invalid (Computer Nerd Kev) - 2025-09-24 09:57 +1000
          Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-24 01:35 +0100
            Re: The "Standards" Game Computer Nerd Kev <not@telling.you.invalid> - 2025-09-24 12:51 +1000
          Re: The "Standards" Game Charlie Gibbs <cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid> - 2025-09-24 05:06 +0000
            Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-24 11:41 +0100
          Re: The "Standards" Game Pancho <Pancho.Jones@protonmail.com> - 2025-09-24 13:49 +0100
            Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-24 15:21 +0100
              Re: The "Standards" Game Pancho <Pancho.Jones@protonmail.com> - 2025-09-25 10:10 +0100
                Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-25 10:43 +0100
                Re: The "Standards" Game Pancho <Pancho.Jones@protonmail.com> - 2025-09-25 13:16 +0100
                Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-25 14:09 +0100
                Re: The "Standards" Game Pancho <Pancho.Jones@protonmail.com> - 2025-09-26 22:01 +0100
                Re: The "Standards" Game not@telling.you.invalid (Computer Nerd Kev) - 2025-09-26 09:35 +1000
                Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-26 10:56 +0100
          Nuclear plants. "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-24 22:12 +0200
            Re: Nuclear plants. Bobbie Sellers <bliss-sf4ever@dslextreme.com> - 2025-09-24 15:20 -0700
              Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-25 10:11 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. knuttle <keith_nuttle@yahoo.com> - 2025-09-25 07:25 -0400
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-25 12:58 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. Bobbie Sellers <bliss-sf4ever@dslextreme.com> - 2025-09-25 08:11 -0700
                Re: Nuclear plants. knuttle <keith_nuttle@yahoo.com> - 2025-09-25 13:19 -0400
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-25 19:00 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-09-26 04:53 +0000
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-26 11:10 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-26 19:22 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-26 20:23 +0200
                Re: Nuclear plants. Paul <nospam@needed.invalid> - 2025-09-26 17:34 -0400
                Re: Nuclear plants. Charlie Gibbs <cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid> - 2025-09-26 16:36 +0000
                Re: Nuclear plants. Peter Jason <pj@jostle.com> - 2025-10-03 08:59 +1000
                Re: Nuclear plants. "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-10-03 14:20 +0200
                Re: Nuclear plants. Paul <nospam@needed.invalid> - 2025-09-25 19:06 -0400
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-26 10:51 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. Daniel70 <daniel47@nomail.afraid.org> - 2025-10-01 21:52 +1000
                Re: Nuclear plants. "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-10-01 14:28 +0200
                Re: Nuclear plants. Rich <rich@example.invalid> - 2025-10-01 12:44 +0000
                Orbital mechanics. [Was: Nuclear plants.] "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-10-01 19:26 +0200
                Re: Orbital mechanics. [Was: Nuclear plants.] Rich <rich@example.invalid> - 2025-10-02 01:03 +0000
                Re: Orbital mechanics. [Was: Nuclear plants.] "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-10-02 13:45 +0200
                Re: Orbital mechanics. [Was: Nuclear plants.] Rich <rich@example.invalid> - 2025-10-02 18:47 +0000
                Re: Orbital mechanics. [Was: Nuclear plants.] "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-10-02 21:59 +0200
                Re: Orbital mechanics. [Was: Nuclear plants.] "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-10-02 22:11 +0200
                Re: Orbital mechanics. [Was: Nuclear plants.] Rich <rich@example.invalid> - 2025-10-02 22:09 +0000
                Re: Orbital mechanics. [Was: Nuclear plants.] Charlie Gibbs <cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid> - 2025-10-02 20:55 +0000
                Re: Orbital mechanics. [Was: Nuclear plants.] Rich <rich@example.invalid> - 2025-10-02 22:07 +0000
                Re: Orbital mechanics. [Was: Nuclear plants.] vallor <vallor@vallor.earth> - 2025-10-02 06:40 +0000
                Re: Orbital mechanics. [Was: Nuclear plants.] The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-10-02 11:47 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. Bobbie Sellers <bliss-sf4ever@dslextreme.com> - 2025-10-01 09:20 -0700
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-25 18:50 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-26 13:43 +0200
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-26 13:04 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-26 20:24 +0200
              Re: Nuclear plants. "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-25 13:29 +0200
                Re: Nuclear plants. Pancho <Pancho.Jones@protonmail.com> - 2025-09-25 12:53 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-25 13:48 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-25 13:26 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-25 20:44 +0200
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-26 10:21 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-26 13:49 +0200
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-26 13:06 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. Bobbie Sellers <bliss-sf4ever@dslextreme.com> - 2025-09-25 08:17 -0700
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-25 18:54 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-09-25 18:07 +0000
                Re: Nuclear plants. "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-25 20:48 +0200
                Re: Nuclear plants. rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-09-26 04:33 +0000
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-26 10:26 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-27 07:45 +0100
                OT: Re: Nuclear plants. Nuno Silva <nunojsilva@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-27 10:09 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-09-27 02:30 +0000
                Re: Nuclear plants. not@telling.you.invalid (Computer Nerd Kev) - 2025-09-27 10:16 +1000
                Re: Nuclear plants. Daniel70 <daniel47@nomail.afraid.org> - 2025-10-02 22:28 +1000
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-10-02 13:41 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. Bobbie Sellers <bliss-sf4ever@dslextreme.com> - 2025-09-25 13:51 -0700
                Re: Nuclear plants. rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-09-26 04:47 +0000
              Re: Nuclear plants. Paul <nospam@needed.invalid> - 2025-09-25 13:25 -0400
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-25 19:06 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-09-26 04:56 +0000
                Re: Nuclear plants. Bobbie Sellers <bliss-sf4ever@dslextreme.com> - 2025-09-25 22:52 -0700
                Re: Nuclear plants. rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-09-26 06:47 +0000
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-26 11:24 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. Bobbie Sellers <bliss-sf4ever@dslextreme.com> - 2025-09-26 09:34 -0700
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-26 11:23 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-26 11:22 +0100
                Re: OT: Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-27 12:52 +0100
                OT: Re: Nuclear plants. Nuno Silva <nunojsilva@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-27 10:32 +0100
            Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-25 10:00 +0100
              Re: Nuclear plants. "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-25 13:33 +0200
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-25 13:47 +0100
                OT: Re: Nuclear plants. Nuno Silva <nunojsilva@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-27 09:45 +0100
                Re: OT: Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-27 12:36 +0100
                Re: OT: Re: Nuclear plants. Nuno Silva <nunojsilva@invalid.invalid> - 2025-10-03 11:24 +0100
                Re: OT: Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-10-03 11:42 +0100
                Re: OT: Re: Nuclear plants. "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-10-03 14:14 +0200

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