Re: The "Standards" Game

From	The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid>
Newsgroups	comp.os.linux.misc, alt.comp.os.windows-11
Subject	Re: The "Standards" Game
Date	2025-09-24 15:21 +0100
Organization	A little, after lunch
Message-ID	<10b0upf$3mjsl$1@dont-email.me> (permalink)
References	(9 earlier) <10ar9d9$2a86g$1@dont-email.me> <68d1d3e6@news.ausics.net> <10atuhj$2tidd$15@dont-email.me> <68d333e6@news.ausics.net> <10b0pk5$3ljbp$1@dont-email.me>

Cross-posted to 2 groups.

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On 24/09/2025 13:49, Pancho wrote:
> On 9/24/25 00:57, Computer Nerd Kev wrote:
> 
>> Twenty more AP1000s are currently being planned, with six in India,
>> nine in Ukraine, three in Poland, and two in Bulgaria." 
>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AP1000
>> 
>> So in short that bigger design has been a winner in China, where of
>> course there won't be such issues with regulations, and got the 
>> interest of other countries where the rules might be more flexible,
>> but fell in a heap when it was tried in the USA, bankrupting
>> Westinghouse in the process.
>> 
> 
> The UK was also going to build three AP1000s, but these were dropped 
> for business reasons, rather than technological. From what I can
> see, the AP1000 and its derivatives look to be much better value for
> the money than the EPRs we are building at Hinkley and Sizewell.
> 
The UK government still firmly in the pocket of the EU and the renewable
sector, refused to provide any guarantees that the projects would ever
be allowed to operate.

Everyone simply walked away. There were better options elsewhere,
Only EDF stayed, and the cost  and time escalation of the Hinkley
project shows exactly why everyone else walked away.

This was 100% a political decision by the UK government to ostensibly
support nuclear, but in reality make it simply impossible for anyone to
build it at a profitable costm, or indeed at all.

> 
>> So like I say, none of this SMR idea is new. I'm sure companies can
>> _claim_ to build/certify SMRs cheaper than whatever price tag 
>> turned everyone off Westinghouse's AP600 design. But why would the
>>  same approach work now when it didn't back then? It's likely the 
>> prices are under-quoted and the companies will fall in a heap like
>>  Westinghouse when they can't achieve the butter zone of cost and 
>> efficiency that they're aiming for.
>> 
> 
> Yeah, there is a suspicion of wishful thinking. Politicians kicking 
> the can down the road, hoping a new technology will save them from 
> having to make risky decisions. This is what has caused the nuclear 
> industry to stagnate for 30 years. I think SMRs are an interesting 
> idea, but for now the UK should opt for immediately starting on 
> building many AP1000 derivatives.
I told you why we cannot. Despite Brexit we are still tied to Euratom,
and Euratom is there not to ensure large  reactors get built, but to
ensure that they do not.

AP1000 would be fine, So would the Hitachi ABWR, So would the CANDU.
Except the regulations would be used to ensure none of them ever got
built at a price that would be worthwhile

> 
> I think TNP is also saddling SMRs with the millstone of a 60 year 
> expected lifespan. Investors don't like this because there is huge 
> risk some cheaper energy will take away expected profits in the long 
> term future. Some of the SMR designers are looking at much shorter 
> expected lifespans, as low as 5 years. If they can get this to work 
> economically it is more appealing in that it reduces long term 
> financial risk and the short lifecycle will allow for much more
> rapid innovation.
> 
You have no idea how investment works.

Once built the running costs of a nuclear power station is
insignificant. ALL the cashflow goes to servicing the debt, and the
longer it operates the cheaper it can generate electricity once the debt
is repaid. Contrariwise the longer it takes to build the more the debt
piles up because its generating no revenue.

This is exactly how regulatory ratcheting is used to destroy the
investment value, that and forcing premature cloisure as happened in
Germany. Where the government was successfully sued for breach of contract.

What you have stated is exactly the reverse : Nuclear is highly
attractive to investors like pension funds swinging huge piles of cash
and looking for a steady 7.5% return over 60 years or more.

Their only worry is risk. Not of cheaper technology coming along, but
that *government will change the rules and force closure*.

THAT is why the companies all walked away from the UK, that plus
requiring enormous insurance premiums and refusing to underwrite massive
losses from natural disasters etc.

Investors would not take the risk of a power plant the government might
simply close. Or saddle with huge costs for some other reason.

They would rather pitch for government *guaranteed* subsidies for
renewables, which is what the EU Renewable Obligation mandated
governments provide.

Investors were bribed to invest in short term renewables, allowed to
drive a cart and horses through planning, environmental impact and
safety, not required to guarantee supply or decommissioning, while every
possible bureaucratic hurdle was placed in the way of nuclear.

Small reactors that can be built in a couple of years at a highly
predictable cost, and are more or less guaranteed to be cash cows for 60
years are massively attractive to investors.

Large reactors whose costs and build times are dominated by adverse
politics and bureaucracies over which the investors and the builders
have no control are simply too risky in the UK

-- 
Canada is all right really, though not for the whole weekend.

"Saki"

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Thread

Re: The "Standards" Game not@telling.you.invalid (Computer Nerd Kev) - 2025-09-22 09:17 +1000
  Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-22 11:46 +0100
    Re: The "Standards" Game Paul <nospam@needed.invalid> - 2025-09-22 16:05 -0400
      Re: The "Standards" Game Charlie Gibbs <cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid> - 2025-09-23 00:07 +0000
        Re: The "Standards" Game rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-09-23 03:03 +0000
        Re: The "Standards" Game Daniel70 <daniel47@nomail.afraid.org> - 2025-09-23 21:03 +1000
          Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-23 13:35 +0100
          Re: The "Standards" Game Frank Slootweg <this@ddress.is.invalid> - 2025-09-23 15:23 +0000
            Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-23 17:30 +0100
              Re: The "Standards" Game Frank Slootweg <this@ddress.is.invalid> - 2025-09-23 18:03 +0000
                Re: The "Standards" Game Charlie Gibbs <cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid> - 2025-09-23 18:29 +0000
                Re: The "Standards" Game "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-23 22:17 +0200
                Re: The "Standards" Game Frank Slootweg <this@ddress.is.invalid> - 2025-09-24 18:43 +0000
              Re: The "Standards" Game "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-23 22:15 +0200
              Re: The "Standards" Game "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-23 22:13 +0200
              Re: The "Standards" Game rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-09-24 03:06 +0000
            Re: The "Standards" Game Daniel70 <daniel47@nomail.afraid.org> - 2025-09-26 23:28 +1000
      Re: The "Standards" Game Jeff Barnett <jbb@notatt.com> - 2025-09-22 18:17 -0600
        Re: The "Standards" Game Daniel70 <daniel47@nomail.afraid.org> - 2025-09-23 21:23 +1000
          Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-23 13:37 +0100
            Re: The "Standards" Game "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-23 22:21 +0200
              Re: The "Standards" Game Bobbie Sellers <bliss-sf4ever@dslextreme.com> - 2025-09-23 14:31 -0700
                Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-24 01:29 +0100
                Re: The "Standards" Game rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-09-24 02:59 +0000
                Submarine testing. "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-24 21:54 +0200
              Re: The "Standards" Game Charlie Gibbs <cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid> - 2025-09-23 21:39 +0000
                Re: The "Standards" Game "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-24 01:00 +0200
                Re: The "Standards" Game Charlie Gibbs <cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid> - 2025-09-24 05:05 +0000
                Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-24 01:29 +0100
              Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-24 01:28 +0100
                Re: The "Standards" Game Charlie Gibbs <cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid> - 2025-09-24 05:06 +0000
                Re: The "Standards" Game "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-24 22:26 +0200
                Re: The "Standards" Game Daniel70 <daniel47@nomail.afraid.org> - 2025-09-28 22:52 +1000
                Re: The "Standards" Game Paul <nospam@needed.invalid> - 2025-09-28 12:00 -0400
                Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-28 17:34 +0100
                Re: The "Standards" Game Daniel70 <daniel47@nomail.afraid.org> - 2025-09-29 23:36 +1000
                Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-29 15:45 +0100
                Re: The "Standards" Game Charlie Gibbs <cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid> - 2025-09-28 18:29 +0000
                Re: The "Standards" Game not@telling.you.invalid (Computer Nerd Kev) - 2025-09-29 08:54 +1000
                Re: The "Standards" Game Paul <nospam@needed.invalid> - 2025-09-28 22:51 -0400
                Re: The "Standards" Game Daniel70 <daniel47@nomail.afraid.org> - 2025-09-29 23:46 +1000
                Opening a submarine "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-24 22:02 +0200
                Re: Opening a submarine Bobbie Sellers <bliss-sf4ever@dslextreme.com> - 2025-09-24 15:26 -0700
                Re: Opening a submarine rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-09-24 23:31 +0000
                Re: Opening a submarine "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-25 13:16 +0200
                Re: Opening a submarine The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-25 09:53 +0100
                Re: Opening a submarine "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-25 13:23 +0200
                Re: Opening a submarine The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-25 13:20 +0100
                Re: Opening a submarine "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-25 22:26 +0200
                Re: Opening a submarine The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-26 10:35 +0100
                Re: Opening a submarine "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-26 13:34 +0200
                Re: Opening a submarine The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-26 12:36 +0100
                Re: Opening a submarine rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-09-25 17:23 +0000
                Re: Opening a submarine "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-25 22:31 +0200
                Re: Opening a submarine rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-09-26 04:18 +0000
          Re: The "Standards" Game rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-09-23 16:44 +0000
            Re: The "Standards" Game Daniel70 <daniel47@nomail.afraid.org> - 2025-09-30 00:02 +1000
      Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-23 11:24 +0100
    Re: The "Standards" Game not@telling.you.invalid (Computer Nerd Kev) - 2025-09-23 08:55 +1000
      Re: The "Standards" Game Charlie Gibbs <cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid> - 2025-09-23 00:07 +0000
        Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-23 12:17 +0100
      Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-23 11:58 +0100
        Re: The "Standards" Game not@telling.you.invalid (Computer Nerd Kev) - 2025-09-24 09:57 +1000
          Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-24 01:35 +0100
            Re: The "Standards" Game Computer Nerd Kev <not@telling.you.invalid> - 2025-09-24 12:51 +1000
          Re: The "Standards" Game Charlie Gibbs <cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid> - 2025-09-24 05:06 +0000
            Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-24 11:41 +0100
          Re: The "Standards" Game Pancho <Pancho.Jones@protonmail.com> - 2025-09-24 13:49 +0100
            Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-24 15:21 +0100
              Re: The "Standards" Game Pancho <Pancho.Jones@protonmail.com> - 2025-09-25 10:10 +0100
                Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-25 10:43 +0100
                Re: The "Standards" Game Pancho <Pancho.Jones@protonmail.com> - 2025-09-25 13:16 +0100
                Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-25 14:09 +0100
                Re: The "Standards" Game Pancho <Pancho.Jones@protonmail.com> - 2025-09-26 22:01 +0100
                Re: The "Standards" Game not@telling.you.invalid (Computer Nerd Kev) - 2025-09-26 09:35 +1000
                Re: The "Standards" Game The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-26 10:56 +0100
          Nuclear plants. "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-24 22:12 +0200
            Re: Nuclear plants. Bobbie Sellers <bliss-sf4ever@dslextreme.com> - 2025-09-24 15:20 -0700
              Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-25 10:11 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. knuttle <keith_nuttle@yahoo.com> - 2025-09-25 07:25 -0400
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-25 12:58 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. Bobbie Sellers <bliss-sf4ever@dslextreme.com> - 2025-09-25 08:11 -0700
                Re: Nuclear plants. knuttle <keith_nuttle@yahoo.com> - 2025-09-25 13:19 -0400
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-25 19:00 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-09-26 04:53 +0000
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-26 11:10 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-26 19:22 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-26 20:23 +0200
                Re: Nuclear plants. Paul <nospam@needed.invalid> - 2025-09-26 17:34 -0400
                Re: Nuclear plants. Charlie Gibbs <cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid> - 2025-09-26 16:36 +0000
                Re: Nuclear plants. Paul <nospam@needed.invalid> - 2025-09-25 19:06 -0400
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-26 10:51 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. Daniel70 <daniel47@nomail.afraid.org> - 2025-10-01 21:52 +1000
                Re: Nuclear plants. "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-10-01 14:28 +0200
                Re: Nuclear plants. Rich <rich@example.invalid> - 2025-10-01 12:44 +0000
                Orbital mechanics. [Was: Nuclear plants.] "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-10-01 19:26 +0200
                Re: Orbital mechanics. [Was: Nuclear plants.] Rich <rich@example.invalid> - 2025-10-02 01:03 +0000
                Re: Orbital mechanics. [Was: Nuclear plants.] vallor <vallor@vallor.earth> - 2025-10-02 06:40 +0000
                Re: Orbital mechanics. [Was: Nuclear plants.] The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-10-02 11:47 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. Bobbie Sellers <bliss-sf4ever@dslextreme.com> - 2025-10-01 09:20 -0700
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-25 18:50 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-26 13:43 +0200
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-26 13:04 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-26 20:24 +0200
              Re: Nuclear plants. "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-25 13:29 +0200
                Re: Nuclear plants. Pancho <Pancho.Jones@protonmail.com> - 2025-09-25 12:53 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-25 13:48 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-25 13:26 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-25 20:44 +0200
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-26 10:21 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-26 13:49 +0200
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-26 13:06 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. Bobbie Sellers <bliss-sf4ever@dslextreme.com> - 2025-09-25 08:17 -0700
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-25 18:54 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-09-25 18:07 +0000
                Re: Nuclear plants. "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-25 20:48 +0200
                Re: Nuclear plants. rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-09-26 04:33 +0000
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-26 10:26 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-27 07:45 +0100
                OT: Re: Nuclear plants. Nuno Silva <nunojsilva@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-27 10:09 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-09-27 02:30 +0000
                Re: Nuclear plants. not@telling.you.invalid (Computer Nerd Kev) - 2025-09-27 10:16 +1000
                Re: Nuclear plants. Bobbie Sellers <bliss-sf4ever@dslextreme.com> - 2025-09-25 13:51 -0700
                Re: Nuclear plants. rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-09-26 04:47 +0000
              Re: Nuclear plants. Paul <nospam@needed.invalid> - 2025-09-25 13:25 -0400
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-25 19:06 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-09-26 04:56 +0000
                Re: Nuclear plants. Bobbie Sellers <bliss-sf4ever@dslextreme.com> - 2025-09-25 22:52 -0700
                Re: Nuclear plants. rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-09-26 06:47 +0000
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-26 11:24 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. Bobbie Sellers <bliss-sf4ever@dslextreme.com> - 2025-09-26 09:34 -0700
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-26 11:23 +0100
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-26 11:22 +0100
                Re: OT: Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-27 12:52 +0100
                OT: Re: Nuclear plants. Nuno Silva <nunojsilva@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-27 10:32 +0100
            Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-25 10:00 +0100
              Re: Nuclear plants. "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-09-25 13:33 +0200
                Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-25 13:47 +0100
                OT: Re: Nuclear plants. Nuno Silva <nunojsilva@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-27 09:45 +0100
                Re: OT: Re: Nuclear plants. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-09-27 12:36 +0100

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