Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world?s coasts by the end of the century?sooner than previously anticipated

From	R Kym Horsell <kym@kymhorsell.com>
Newsgroups	sci.physics, alt.global-warming
Subject	Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world?s coasts by the end of the century?sooner than previously anticipated
Date	2015-07-26 21:57 +0000
Organization	SDF Public Access UNIX System, Est. 1987
Message-ID	<mp3l4n$50m$3@odin.sdf-eu.org> (permalink)
References	(17 earlier) <mp34oi$4fb$1@dont-email.me> <mp35s4$4ep$1@dont-email.me> <mp37mj$fl2$1@dont-email.me> <mp3arr$4ep$13@dont-email.me> <mp3coi$4gs$1@dont-email.me>

Cross-posted to 2 groups.

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In alt.global-warming Unum <noneof@yourbusiness.com> wrote:
> On 7/26/2015 2:03 PM, D'Oh D'Oh Dobranski wrote:
>> On 7/26/2015 11:09 AM, Unum wrote:
>>> On 7/26/2015 12:38 PM, D'Oh D'Oh Dobranski wrote:
>>>> On 7/26/2015 10:19 AM, Unum wrote:
>>>>> On 7/25/2015 1:07 PM, D'Oh D'Oh Dobranski wrote:
>>>>>> On 7/25/2015 10:44 AM, Unum wrote:
>>>>>>> On 7/25/2015 12:00 PM, D'Oh D'Oh Dobranski wrote:
>>>>>>>> On 7/25/2015 9:32 AM, Unum wrote:
>>>>>>>>> On 7/25/2015 10:03 AM, Wally W. wrote:
>>>>>>>>>> On Sat, 25 Jul 2015 09:54:45 -0500, Unum wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>> On 7/25/2015 3:28 AM, Paul /D\ubrin wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>> On Thu, 23 Jul 2015 23:23:22 -0500, Unum wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 7/23/2015 9:22 PM, D'Oh D'Oh Dobranski wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 7/23/2015 7:18 PM, Sam Wormley wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 7/23/15 8:06 PM, D'Oh D'Oh Dobranski wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> You mean the journal 'Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics',
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> where the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> status is currently 1st stage 'discussion paper'.  The paper
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> has a
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> long ways to go before acceptance for final publication,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> if and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> when
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it passes 1st and 2nd stages of review, including revisions,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> etc.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> That may not happen until long after events like Paris
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 2015.  Oh
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> wait, there's your answer right there for hyping a
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> pre-publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> draft in the media.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>      Hey Chomp, Did you find anything in the content that
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> wasn't
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>      scientifically correct?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> -- Kevin Trenberth
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Hilarious to see him cite Trenberth! Next week the chumpsky will
>>>>>>>>>>>>> attack
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Trenberth.
>>>>>>>>>>>> Chom knows that the rational (scientific) attitude is to examine
>>>>>>>>>>>> ideas,
>>>>>>>>>>>> not the person.
>>>>>>>>>>> Obvious lie, on alt.global-warming chumpsky has attempted to
>>>>>>>>>>> smear Chris Turney and John Cook in just the past couple of days.
>>>>>>>>>> Lessee ... did Unum's post examine the idea or the person?
>>>>>>>>> Apparently chumpsky didn't "find anything in the content that wasn't
>>>>>>>>> scientifically correct". So what idea are you referring to?
>>>>>>>> In order to take Hansen seriously one has to imagine that SLR --
>>>>>>>> which
>>>>>>>> has
>>>>>>>> shown no acceleration since the end of the Maunder minimum -- will
>>>>>>>> somehow, at
>>>>>>>> some point, begin to exponentially increase over the next 85 years,
>>>>>>>> Redraw
>>>>>>>> the exponential curve in your head as many times as necessary in
>>>>>>>> order to
>>>>>>>> acheive suspension of disbelief.
>>>>>>>> https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CKudLCwWwAIH8SP.png:large
>>>>>>> Presumably assumes the ice sheets on Greenland and the Antarctic
>>>>>>> melt into the ocean at increasing rates as many studies predict.
>>>>>> WTF does "presumably assumes" mean?  Is that what yer regard as sciency
>>>>>> language, lil buddy?
>>>>> You didn't like my choice of words? Oh darn!
>>>>>>> Meanwhile, apparently you didn't "find anything in the content
>>>>>>> that wasn't scientifically correct".
>>>>> Now we get a tedious parsing of some other words with an obvious
>>>>> and clear meaning.
>>>> Hey, ice sheets will melt faster, and I mean definitely maybe!  Yer
>>>> unambiguously ambiguous language is the language of equivocating
>>>> fruitcakes
>>>> and weasels.
>>>>>> First define what is meant by "scientifically correct". To me it
>>>>>> should mean
>>>>>> that you have some evidence that nobody has been able to refute.
>>>>>> Hansen has
>>>>>> been refuted by a number of fellow scientists, therefor one or more of
>>>>>> his
>>>>>> claims fails the criteria.  In reality there is actually no such
>>>>>> thing as
>>>>>> "scientifically correct", only evidence, arguments and claims which
>>>>>> have yet
>>>>>> to be contradicted.
>>>>> It could well be that he's been refuted, but I'm noticing you
>>>>> aren't citing any of it.
>>>> Yer go back and read agin, lil buddy!
>>> All I see is a link to a chart, if that's all you got fine
>>> by me!
>> Keep looking.
> Will I see something that isn't there?
>>>>>> I will be more than happy to oblige once you or Sam clarify what
>>>>>> standard of
>>>>>> evidence is required to satisfy the unscientific criteria of
>>>>>> "scientifically
>>>>>> correct".
>>>>> If it isn't clear to you now, no amount of explanation will help.
>>>> A literal interpretation of "scientifically correct" is "having no
>>>> errors" or
>>>> "conforming to fact".  How exactly do you assert that a future prediction
>>>> involving high uncertainty "conforms to fact" or "has no errors"?
>>> So that's your personal bogus interpretation?
>> Nope, actually the dictionary definition of correct when used in adjective form.
>> "conforming to fact or truth; free from error; accurate"
> I can understand why you would be so desperate to interpret the
> phrase as something impossible to achieve. I'll stick with my perfectly
> reasonable definition below.
>> We'll just say it
>>> means "conforming with the principles of science".
>> So 10ft of SLR by 2100 is "scientifically correct", i.e., conforming to fact
>> or truth, free from error, and accurate?
> Its simply in conformance with observed empirical evidence such as
> accelerating melting of land ice as has been posted here many times.
...

I thought in the past I'd posted some pix about accelerating
SLR showing numbers that agreed with a 2x increase over the past 50y,
but for some reason I can't find the source material on any server.
I can't remember who it was originally for -- I suspect some city
council in Florida. But I just can locate it.

So.... I can unveil new results with old data.

I've worked up another horrendous s/w to smooth and adjust
tide gague data to make it nice like satellite data.

The program tries not to estimate too many parameters, but there
are a few. E.g. a weight is determined for each gague to minimize
the variation in the data over time.

Underneath the adjusting some model is fit. At the moment I'm using
2 flavors -- 2 linear segments and an exponential. Both of these
fit the data better than a single line oeven over the period 1950-2000.

But here is one plot:
<http://graphs.kymhorsell.com/fitexp.gif>

Since it's based on 50 years of data and even back-casts a few decades
(obviosuly doesn't extend back before the war too far)
we can forward cast it a few decades and see what it's predicting:

2050:
SLR   7.3m  to   10.1m    95% CI

And even
2100:
SLR   30.8m  to  63.0m    95%  CI

I figure the predictions may look outrageous, but should go down well
with a crowd very concernedan ice age is starting in the next 30 years
because the sun is predicted to go out.

--
Investors could lose $4.2tn because of climate change, report warns ...
The Guardian, 24 Jul 2015 18:12Z 
Investors could lose $4.2tn due to impact of climate change, report warns. 
Investments in fossil fuel companies face serious risk from global warming, 
research by the Economist Intelligence Unit shows. The future is grim for 
private holdings in fossil ...

Witness Talks Huron Tornado
KELOLAND TV, 24 Jul 2015 23:14Z
From funnel cloud to touch down, a Huron woman says she will not forget 
seeing an actual tornado. Thursday night's twister south of Huron near State 
Highway 37 damaged buildings as well as power lines.

'Brain-Eating' Amoeba Reappears in Louisiana Parish's Water Supply
ABC News, 24 Jul 2015 23:16Z 
A potentially deadly amoeba has been found in the water supply of a parish 
outside New Orleans for the second time in two years, officials said.

America's Cup event cancelled due to extreme weather
TVNZ, 26 Jul 2015 12:35Z 
The America's Cup World Series races in Portsmouth have been cancelled 
because of the weather conditions.

Thread

New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-07-23 15:20 -0600
  Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2015-07-23 22:13 +0000
    Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the worldâ?Ts coasts by the end of the centuryâ?"sooner than previously anticipated "Ringer" <byoung@peoplestel.net> - 2015-07-23 17:48 -0500
      Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world??Ts coasts by the end of the century??"sooner than previously anticipated jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2015-07-24 00:27 +0000
      Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the worldâ?Ts coasts by the end of the centuryâ?"sooner than previously anticipated benj <nobody@gmail.com> - 2015-07-24 00:15 -0400
  Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Simeom <invalid@invalid.com> - 2015-07-23 17:18 -0500
    Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the worlds coasts by the end of the centurysooner than previously anticipated "Ringer" <byoung@peoplestel.net> - 2015-07-23 17:48 -0500
      Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Simeom <invalid@invalid.com> - 2015-07-23 18:26 -0500
      Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Chom Noamsky <moose-riders-suck@bc.commmmm> - 2015-07-23 16:34 -0700
        Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-07-23 18:41 -0600
          Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Chom Noamsky <moose-riders-suck@bc.commmmm> - 2015-07-23 17:57 -0700
            Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-07-23 19:00 -0600
              Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Chom Noamsky <moose-riders-suck@bc.commmmm> - 2015-07-23 18:14 -0700
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-07-23 19:22 -0600
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Simeom <invalid@invalid.com> - 2015-07-23 20:40 -0500
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world?s coasts by the end of the century?sooner than previously anticipated R Kym Horsell <kym@kymhorsell.com> - 2015-07-24 01:44 +0000
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Chom Noamsky <moose-riders-suck@bc.commmmm> - 2015-07-23 19:06 -0700
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-07-23 20:18 -0600
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Chom Noamsky <moose-riders-suck@bc.commmmm> - 2015-07-23 19:22 -0700
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Unum <noneof@yourbusiness.com> - 2015-07-23 23:23 -0500
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Unum <noneof@yourbusiness.com> - 2015-07-25 09:54 -0500
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the worlds coasts by the end of the centurysooner than previously anticipated Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com> - 2015-07-25 11:03 -0400
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Unum <noneof@yourbusiness.com> - 2015-07-25 11:32 -0500
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Chom Noamsky <moose-riders-suck@bc.commmmm> - 2015-07-25 10:00 -0700
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Unum <noneof@yourbusiness.com> - 2015-07-25 12:44 -0500
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world's coasts by the end of the century--sooner than previously anticipated "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2015-07-25 10:54 -0700
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world's coasts by the end of the century--sooner than previously anticipated HVAC <Mr.HVAC@gmail.com> - 2015-07-25 14:28 -0400
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Chom Noamsky <moose-riders-suck@bc.commmmm> - 2015-07-25 11:07 -0700
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Unum <noneof@yourbusiness.com> - 2015-07-26 12:19 -0500
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Chom Noamsky <moose-riders-suck@bc.commmmm> - 2015-07-26 10:38 -0700
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Unum <noneof@yourbusiness.com> - 2015-07-26 13:09 -0500
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the worlds coasts by the end of the centurysooner than previously anticipated Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com> - 2015-07-26 14:27 -0400
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Chom Noamsky <moose-riders-suck@bc.commmmm> - 2015-07-26 12:03 -0700
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Unum <noneof@yourbusiness.com> - 2015-07-26 14:36 -0500
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Chom Noamsky <moose-riders-suck@bc.commmmm> - 2015-07-26 13:38 -0700
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Unum <noneof@yourbusiness.com> - 2015-07-26 17:32 -0500
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Chom Noamsky <moose-riders-suck@bc.commmmm> - 2015-07-26 15:41 -0700
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Unum <noneof@yourbusiness.com> - 2015-07-26 18:37 -0500
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Chom Noamsky <moose-riders-suck@bc.commmmm> - 2015-07-26 18:39 -0700
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Unum <noneof@yourbusiness.com> - 2015-07-26 21:11 -0500
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Chom Noamsky <moose-riders-suck@bc.commmmm> - 2015-07-27 08:57 -0700
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Unum <noneof@yourbusiness.com> - 2015-07-27 17:53 -0500
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world?s coasts by the end of the century?sooner than previously anticipated R Kym Horsell <kym@kymhorsell.com> - 2015-07-26 21:57 +0000
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world?s coasts by the end of the century?sooner than previously anticipated R Kym Horsell <kym@kymhorsell.com> - 2015-07-27 00:17 +0000
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world?s coasts by the end of the century?sooner than previously anticipated R Kym Horsell <kym@kymhorsell.com> - 2015-07-26 21:44 +0000
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Paul Aubrin <chu8i443@free.fr> - 2015-07-25 19:27 +0000
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Unum <noneof@yourbusiness.com> - 2015-07-26 12:29 -0500
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Paul Aubrin <chu8i443@free.fr> - 2015-07-26 18:40 +0000
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Unum <noneof@yourbusiness.com> - 2015-07-26 14:24 -0500
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the worlds coasts by the end of the centurysooner than previously anticipated Desertphile <Desertphile@nospam.org> - 2015-07-29 07:53 -0600
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated benj <nobody@gmail.com> - 2015-07-29 11:07 -0400
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated HVAC <Mr.HVAC@gmail.com> - 2015-07-29 13:15 -0400
                new noTthaTguY <abu.kuanysh05@gmail.com> - 2015-07-29 21:00 -0700
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world¢s coasts by the end of the centurysooner than previously anticipated Desertphile <Desertphile@nospam.org> - 2015-07-29 13:33 -0600
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world?s coasts by the end of the century?sooner than previously anticipated R Kym Horsell <kym@kymhorsell.com> - 2015-07-29 19:48 +0000
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world?s coasts by the end of the century?sooner than previously anticipated R Kym Horsell <kym@kymhorsell.com> - 2015-07-25 21:04 +0000
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Paul Aubrin <chu8i443@free.fr> - 2015-07-25 18:34 +0000
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century---sooner than previously anticipated benj <nobody@gmail.com> - 2015-07-25 16:04 -0400
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2015-07-24 03:18 +0000
          Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2015-07-24 00:51 +0000
        Re: Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Nobody <not@home.anymore> - 2015-07-24 01:49 +0000
      Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated benj <nobody@gmail.com> - 2015-07-24 00:18 -0400
        Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated HVAC <Mr.HVAC@gmail.com> - 2015-07-24 07:32 -0400
  Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Chom Noamsky <moose-riders-suck@bc.commmmm> - 2015-07-23 16:14 -0700
  Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world's coasts by the end of the century--sooner than previously anticipated "hanson" <hanson@quick.net> - 2015-07-24 21:23 -0700
  Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2015-07-25 06:45 +0000
    Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-07-25 10:45 -0600
      Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2015-07-25 16:57 +0000
        Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world's coasts by the end of the century--sooner than previously anticipated noTthaTguY <abu.kuanysh05@gmail.com> - 2015-07-25 20:56 -0700
  Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world's coasts by the end of the century--sooner than previously anticipated Double-A <double-a3@hush.com> - 2015-07-25 13:08 -0700

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