Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world?s coasts by the end of the century?sooner than previously anticipated

From	R Kym Horsell <kym@kymhorsell.com>
Newsgroups	sci.physics, alt.global-warming
Subject	Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world?s coasts by the end of the century?sooner than previously anticipated
Date	2015-07-27 00:17 +0000
Organization	SDF Public Access UNIX System, Est. 1987
Message-ID	<mp3tah$331$1@odin.sdf-eu.org> (permalink)
References	(18 earlier) <mp35s4$4ep$1@dont-email.me> <mp37mj$fl2$1@dont-email.me> <mp3arr$4ep$13@dont-email.me> <mp3coi$4gs$1@dont-email.me> <mp3l4n$50m$3@odin.sdf-eu.org>

Cross-posted to 2 groups.

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In alt.global-warming R Kym Horsell <kym@kymhorsell.com> wrote:
...
> Underneath the adjusting some model is fit. At the moment I'm using
> 2 flavors -- 2 linear segments and an exponential. Both of these
> fit the data better than a single line oeven over the period 1950-2000.
> But here is one plot:
> <http://graphs.kymhorsell.com/fitexp.gif>
> Since it's based on 50 years of data and even back-casts a few decades
> (obviosuly doesn't extend back before the war too far)
> we can forward cast it a few decades and see what it's predicting:
> 2050:
> SLR   7.3m  to   10.1m    95% CI
> And even
> 2100:
> SLR   30.8m  to  63.0m    95%  CI
> I figure the predictions may look outrageous, but should go down well
> with a crowd very concernedan ice age is starting in the next 30 years
> because the sun is predicted to go out.


Well this is distressing. In the last day an old s/w package
I've been using for 30+ years started SEGFAULTing instead of
politely (it was written in France before France went to Hell on
the manners thing) telling me my problem was ill-conditioned,
and now it seems I've hit a bug in that excellent spreadsheet product
written for PC's.

Clipping a formula into a box on the spreadsheet gets ONE answer,
but it seems to be completely different from the answer if
you clip the formula into a file and feed the file into the spreadsheet.

Do computers do that kind of thing often? :)

Anyway, the results from the model are more mundane than they
first appeared.

2050:
95% ci slr above mid 20th cent  --   24.1-44.4 cm

2100:
95% ci slr above mid 20th cent -- 80.6cm to 2.83m

The SLR doubling time according to the expon fit is around 25-30years.
I.e. between 1950-1975 the pac and atl stations saw about
a 3.5 cm rise. Between 1975 and 2000 that doubled to about 7cm.
We can expect between 2000 and 2025 about 14cm.


--
[Sea level fall.... not.]
Rome's original harbour was Ostia. Claudius constructed the first
harbour on the Portus site, 4 km (2.5 mi) north of Ostia, enclosing an
area of 69 hectares (170 acres), with two long curving moles
projecting into the sea, and an artificial island, bearing a
lighthouse, in the centre of the space between them. The foundation of
this lighthouse was provided by filling one of the massive Obelisk
ships, used to transport an obelisk from Egypt to adorn the spina of
Vatican Circus, built during the reign of Caligula. The harbour thus
opened directly to the sea on the northwest and communicated with the
Tiber by a channel on the southeast.
--wikipedia

The ancient Roman city of Ostia [near Fiumicino, on the other bank of the 
Tiber] was in antiquity situated at the mouth of the river Tiber, some 30 
kilometres to the west of Rome. The shoreline moved seawards, due to silting,
from the Middle Ages until the 19th century. Therefore Ostia is today still 
lying next to the Tiber, but at a distance of some three kilometers from the 
beach. Ostia is Latin for "mouth", the mouth of the Tiber. The river was 
used as harbour, but in the Imperial period two harbour basins were added to 
the north, near Leonardo da Vinci airport. The harbour district was called 
Portus, Latin for "harbour". Ostia is home to a collection of ruins waiting 
to be visited.
-- wikivoyage

Thread

New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-07-23 15:20 -0600
  Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2015-07-23 22:13 +0000
    Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the worldâ?Ts coasts by the end of the centuryâ?"sooner than previously anticipated "Ringer" <byoung@peoplestel.net> - 2015-07-23 17:48 -0500
      Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world??Ts coasts by the end of the century??"sooner than previously anticipated jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2015-07-24 00:27 +0000
      Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the worldâ?Ts coasts by the end of the centuryâ?"sooner than previously anticipated benj <nobody@gmail.com> - 2015-07-24 00:15 -0400
  Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Simeom <invalid@invalid.com> - 2015-07-23 17:18 -0500
    Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the worlds coasts by the end of the centurysooner than previously anticipated "Ringer" <byoung@peoplestel.net> - 2015-07-23 17:48 -0500
      Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Simeom <invalid@invalid.com> - 2015-07-23 18:26 -0500
      Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Chom Noamsky <moose-riders-suck@bc.commmmm> - 2015-07-23 16:34 -0700
        Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-07-23 18:41 -0600
          Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Chom Noamsky <moose-riders-suck@bc.commmmm> - 2015-07-23 17:57 -0700
            Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-07-23 19:00 -0600
              Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Chom Noamsky <moose-riders-suck@bc.commmmm> - 2015-07-23 18:14 -0700
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-07-23 19:22 -0600
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Simeom <invalid@invalid.com> - 2015-07-23 20:40 -0500
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world?s coasts by the end of the century?sooner than previously anticipated R Kym Horsell <kym@kymhorsell.com> - 2015-07-24 01:44 +0000
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Chom Noamsky <moose-riders-suck@bc.commmmm> - 2015-07-23 19:06 -0700
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-07-23 20:18 -0600
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Chom Noamsky <moose-riders-suck@bc.commmmm> - 2015-07-23 19:22 -0700
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Unum <noneof@yourbusiness.com> - 2015-07-23 23:23 -0500
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Unum <noneof@yourbusiness.com> - 2015-07-25 09:54 -0500
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the worlds coasts by the end of the centurysooner than previously anticipated Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com> - 2015-07-25 11:03 -0400
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Unum <noneof@yourbusiness.com> - 2015-07-25 11:32 -0500
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Chom Noamsky <moose-riders-suck@bc.commmmm> - 2015-07-25 10:00 -0700
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Unum <noneof@yourbusiness.com> - 2015-07-25 12:44 -0500
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world's coasts by the end of the century--sooner than previously anticipated "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2015-07-25 10:54 -0700
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world's coasts by the end of the century--sooner than previously anticipated HVAC <Mr.HVAC@gmail.com> - 2015-07-25 14:28 -0400
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Chom Noamsky <moose-riders-suck@bc.commmmm> - 2015-07-25 11:07 -0700
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Unum <noneof@yourbusiness.com> - 2015-07-26 12:19 -0500
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Chom Noamsky <moose-riders-suck@bc.commmmm> - 2015-07-26 10:38 -0700
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Unum <noneof@yourbusiness.com> - 2015-07-26 13:09 -0500
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the worlds coasts by the end of the centurysooner than previously anticipated Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com> - 2015-07-26 14:27 -0400
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Chom Noamsky <moose-riders-suck@bc.commmmm> - 2015-07-26 12:03 -0700
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Unum <noneof@yourbusiness.com> - 2015-07-26 14:36 -0500
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Chom Noamsky <moose-riders-suck@bc.commmmm> - 2015-07-26 13:38 -0700
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Unum <noneof@yourbusiness.com> - 2015-07-26 17:32 -0500
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Chom Noamsky <moose-riders-suck@bc.commmmm> - 2015-07-26 15:41 -0700
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Unum <noneof@yourbusiness.com> - 2015-07-26 18:37 -0500
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Chom Noamsky <moose-riders-suck@bc.commmmm> - 2015-07-26 18:39 -0700
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Unum <noneof@yourbusiness.com> - 2015-07-26 21:11 -0500
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Chom Noamsky <moose-riders-suck@bc.commmmm> - 2015-07-27 08:57 -0700
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Unum <noneof@yourbusiness.com> - 2015-07-27 17:53 -0500
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world?s coasts by the end of the century?sooner than previously anticipated R Kym Horsell <kym@kymhorsell.com> - 2015-07-26 21:57 +0000
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world?s coasts by the end of the century?sooner than previously anticipated R Kym Horsell <kym@kymhorsell.com> - 2015-07-27 00:17 +0000
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world?s coasts by the end of the century?sooner than previously anticipated R Kym Horsell <kym@kymhorsell.com> - 2015-07-26 21:44 +0000
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Paul Aubrin <chu8i443@free.fr> - 2015-07-25 19:27 +0000
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Unum <noneof@yourbusiness.com> - 2015-07-26 12:29 -0500
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Paul Aubrin <chu8i443@free.fr> - 2015-07-26 18:40 +0000
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Unum <noneof@yourbusiness.com> - 2015-07-26 14:24 -0500
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the worlds coasts by the end of the centurysooner than previously anticipated Desertphile <Desertphile@nospam.org> - 2015-07-29 07:53 -0600
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated benj <nobody@gmail.com> - 2015-07-29 11:07 -0400
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated HVAC <Mr.HVAC@gmail.com> - 2015-07-29 13:15 -0400
                new noTthaTguY <abu.kuanysh05@gmail.com> - 2015-07-29 21:00 -0700
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world¢s coasts by the end of the centurysooner than previously anticipated Desertphile <Desertphile@nospam.org> - 2015-07-29 13:33 -0600
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world?s coasts by the end of the century?sooner than previously anticipated R Kym Horsell <kym@kymhorsell.com> - 2015-07-29 19:48 +0000
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world?s coasts by the end of the century?sooner than previously anticipated R Kym Horsell <kym@kymhorsell.com> - 2015-07-25 21:04 +0000
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Paul Aubrin <chu8i443@free.fr> - 2015-07-25 18:34 +0000
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century---sooner than previously anticipated benj <nobody@gmail.com> - 2015-07-25 16:04 -0400
                Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2015-07-24 03:18 +0000
          Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2015-07-24 00:51 +0000
        Re: Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Nobody <not@home.anymore> - 2015-07-24 01:49 +0000
      Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated benj <nobody@gmail.com> - 2015-07-24 00:18 -0400
        Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated HVAC <Mr.HVAC@gmail.com> - 2015-07-24 07:32 -0400
  Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Chom Noamsky <moose-riders-suck@bc.commmmm> - 2015-07-23 16:14 -0700
  Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world's coasts by the end of the century--sooner than previously anticipated "hanson" <hanson@quick.net> - 2015-07-24 21:23 -0700
  Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2015-07-25 06:45 +0000
    Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-07-25 10:45 -0600
      Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world’s coasts by the end of the century—sooner than previously anticipated jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2015-07-25 16:57 +0000
        Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world's coasts by the end of the century--sooner than previously anticipated noTthaTguY <abu.kuanysh05@gmail.com> - 2015-07-25 20:56 -0700
  Re: New research suggests rising oceans could swamp the world's coasts by the end of the century--sooner than previously anticipated Double-A <double-a3@hush.com> - 2015-07-25 13:08 -0700

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