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Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age?

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  Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2016-01-13 22:19 -0600
    Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-01-14 04:59 +0000
    Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? James McGinn <jimmcginn9@gmail.com> - 2016-01-15 13:58 -0800
    Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? Sergio <invalid@invalid.com> - 2016-01-15 16:04 -0600
    Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? R Kym Horsell <kym@kymhorsell.com> - 2016-01-15 22:35 +0000
      Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-01-16 00:18 +0000
        Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2016-01-15 18:36 -0600
          Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-01-16 01:39 +0000
            Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2016-01-15 22:23 -0600
              Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-01-16 07:01 +0000
    Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2016-01-16 10:03 -0800
      Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? benj <none@gmail.com> - 2016-01-16 14:07 -0500
    Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? jc_lavau <NolavauSpamjac@cleube-internet.effer> - 2016-01-27 08:59 +0100

#545264 — Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age?

Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age?
> http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/did-early-agricultural-co2-save-earth-from-an-ice-age.html

> Earth has had a narrow escape from a new ice age possibly due to
> humanity's early CO2 emissions, according to a paper in Nature.
> Modelling studies looking at the link between insolation and CO2
> confirm that we would now be entering an ice age had atmospheric CO2
> concentrations prior to the industrial revolution not risen above
> 240ppm


> Abstract
>
> The past rapid growth of Northern Hemisphere continental ice sheets,
> which terminated warm and stable climate periods, is generally
> attributed to reduced summer insolation in boreal latitudes. Yet such
> summer insolation is near to its minimum at present, and there are no
> signs of a new ice age. This challenges our understanding of the
> mechanisms driving glacial cycles and our ability to predict the next
> glacial inception. Here we propose a critical functional relationship
> between boreal summer insolation and global carbon dioxide (CO2)
> concentration, which explains the beginning of the past eight glacial
> cycles and might anticipate future periods of glacial inception.
> Using an ensemble of simulations generated by an Earth system model
> of intermediate complexity constrained by palaeoclimatic data, we
> suggest that glacial inception was narrowly missed before the
> beginning of the Industrial Revolution. The missed inception can be
> accounted for by the combined effect of relatively high late-Holocene
> CO2concentrations and the low orbital eccentricity of the Earth.
> Additionally, our analysis suggests that even in the absence of human
> perturbations no substantial build-up of ice sheets would occur
> within the next several thousand years and that the current
> interglacial would probably last for another 50,000 years. However,
> moderate anthropogenic cumulative CO2 emissions of 1,000 to 1,500
> gigatonnes of carbon will postpone the next glacial inception by at
> least 100,000 years. Our simulations demonstrate that under natural
> conditions alone the Earth system would be expected to remain in the
> present delicately balanced interglacial climate state, steering
> clear of both large-scale glaciation of the Northern Hemisphere and
> its complete deglaciation, for an unusually long time.
>
> Citation
>
> Critical insolation–CO2 relation for diagnosing past and future
> glacial inception by A.Ganopolski, R.Winkelmann and H. J.Schellnhuber
> published in Nature, doi:10.1038/nature16494
>


-- 

sci.physics is an unmoderated newsgroup dedicated
to the discussion of physics, news from the physics
community, and physics-related social issues.

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#545273

Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> wrote:
> Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age?
>> http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/did-early-agricultural-co2-save-earth-from-an-ice-age.html
> 
>> Earth has had a narrow escape from a new ice age possibly due to
>> humanity's early CO2 emissions, according to a paper in Nature.
>> Modelling studies looking at the link between insolation and CO2
>> confirm that we would now be entering an ice age had atmospheric CO2
>> concentrations prior to the industrial revolution not risen above
>> 240ppm
> 
> 
>> Abstract
>>
>> The past rapid growth of Northern Hemisphere continental ice sheets,
>> which terminated warm and stable climate periods, is generally
>> attributed to reduced summer insolation in boreal latitudes. Yet such
>> summer insolation is near to its minimum at present, and there are no
>> signs of a new ice age. This challenges our understanding of the
>> mechanisms driving glacial cycles and our ability to predict the next
>> glacial inception. Here we propose a critical functional relationship
>> between boreal summer insolation and global carbon dioxide (CO2)
>> concentration, which explains the beginning of the past eight glacial
>> cycles and might anticipate future periods of glacial inception.
>> Using an ensemble of simulations generated by an Earth system model
>> of intermediate complexity constrained by palaeoclimatic data, we
>> suggest that glacial inception was narrowly missed before the
>> beginning of the Industrial Revolution. The missed inception can be
>> accounted for by the combined effect of relatively high late-Holocene
>> CO2concentrations and the low orbital eccentricity of the Earth.
>> Additionally, our analysis suggests that even in the absence of human
>> perturbations no substantial build-up of ice sheets would occur
>> within the next several thousand years and that the current
>> interglacial would probably last for another 50,000 years. However,
>> moderate anthropogenic cumulative CO2 emissions of 1,000 to 1,500
>> gigatonnes of carbon will postpone the next glacial inception by at
>> least 100,000 years. Our simulations demonstrate that under natural
>> conditions alone the Earth system would be expected to remain in the
>> present delicately balanced interglacial climate state, steering
>> clear of both large-scale glaciation of the Northern Hemisphere and
>> its complete deglaciation, for an unusually long time.
>>
>> Citation
>>
>> Critical insolation?CO2 relation for diagnosing past and future
>> glacial inception by A.Ganopolski, R.Winkelmann and H. J.Schellnhuber
>> published in Nature, doi:10.1038/nature16494
>>

About 8,000 Americans are injured by musical instruments each year.


-- 
Jim Pennino

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#545699

On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:19:37 PM UTC-8, Sam Wormley wrote:
> Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age?
> > http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/did-early-agricultural-co2-save-earth-from-an-ice-age.html
> 
> > Earth has had a narrow escape from a new ice age possibly due to
> > humanity's early CO2 emissions, according to a paper in Nature.
> > Modelling studies looking at the link between insolation and CO2
> > confirm that we would now be entering an ice age had atmospheric CO2
> > concentrations prior to the industrial revolution not risen above
> > 240ppm
> 
> 
> > Abstract
> >
> > The past rapid growth of Northern Hemisphere continental ice sheets,
> > which terminated warm and stable climate periods, is generally
> > attributed to reduced summer insolation in boreal latitudes. Yet such
> > summer insolation is near to its minimum at present, and there are no
> > signs of a new ice age. This challenges our understanding of the
> > mechanisms driving glacial cycles and our ability to predict the next
> > glacial inception. Here we propose a critical functional relationship
> > between boreal summer insolation and global carbon dioxide (CO2)
> > concentration, which explains the beginning of the past eight glacial
> > cycles and might anticipate future periods of glacial inception.
> > Using an ensemble of simulations generated by an Earth system model
> > of intermediate complexity constrained by palaeoclimatic data, we
> > suggest that glacial inception was narrowly missed before the
> > beginning of the Industrial Revolution. The missed inception can be
> > accounted for by the combined effect of relatively high late-Holocene
> > CO2concentrations and the low orbital eccentricity of the Earth.
> > Additionally, our analysis suggests that even in the absence of human
> > perturbations no substantial build-up of ice sheets would occur
> > within the next several thousand years and that the current
> > interglacial would probably last for another 50,000 years. However,
> > moderate anthropogenic cumulative CO2 emissions of 1,000 to 1,500
> > gigatonnes of carbon will postpone the next glacial inception by at
> > least 100,000 years. Our simulations demonstrate that under natural
> > conditions alone the Earth system would be expected to remain in the
> > present delicately balanced interglacial climate state, steering
> > clear of both large-scale glaciation of the Northern Hemisphere and
> > its complete deglaciation, for an unusually long time.
> >
> > Citation
> >
> > Critical insolation-CO2 relation for diagnosing past and future
> > glacial inception by A.Ganopolski, R.Winkelmann and H. J.Schellnhuber
> > published in Nature, doi:10.1038/nature16494
> >
> 
> 
> -- 
> 
> sci.physics is an unmoderated newsgroup dedicated
> to the discussion of physics, news from the physics
> community, and physics-related social issues.

Is that Randy Winkelmann or Roger?

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#545702

On 1/13/2016 10:19 PM, Sam Wormley wrote:
> Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age?


no.

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#545708

Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> wrote:
> Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age?
...

There's certainly some evidence for this.

We have reasonable estimates of human populations from 0-2000ad for example
and we can compare that against the proxy global temps from the Vostok ice cores.

The table that my database spits out is:

Year		pop bn		Vostok delaTS (C)
1102            0.3226          -0.78
1069            0.32775         -0.78
1038            0.3355          -0.17
1006            0.3435          -0.25
1133            0.3629          -0.17
1398            0.3763          -1.61
1162            0.4006          -0.1
1369            0.40965         -0.9
1255            0.4176          -1.23
1427            0.41882         -1.39
1285            0.4272          -0.18
1224            0.43368         -1.54
1313            0.435575        -0.02
1193            0.4409          -0.85
1341            0.44185         -0.6
1455            0.4653          -1.08
1481            0.50846         -0.08
1506            0.54234         0.18
1623            0.54772         -0.22
1530            0.5517          0.35
1599            0.56336         -0.48
1553            0.56925         0.23
1575            0.57861         -0.75
1646            0.59592         -0.75
1669            0.65756         -1.09
1692            0.89896         -0.95
1716            0.9938          0.36
1739            1.0594          0.02
1760            1.13054         -0.81
1780            1.24134         0
1801            1.3466          0


And a TS-sensitive regression finds the model

deltaTS = 0.596689*pop - 0.853777
where Pr(beta)>0 is 95.0243%
Spearman corr = .32379 (> 5% 2-sided crit val  .306)

So there is some prima facie evidence that temps at
Vostok (several km up and near the S pole) were rising
about .6C per billion human population between ~1000ad and ~1850ad.

Because warming tends at the S Pole may not be numerically
very close to the global avgerate temperature or warming in
any temperate region we can check the Vostok result with another
model. I.e.  the world population against the long-running Central 
England Temperature record.

When we do that (much bigger overlap since CET runs 1659- ; so I
won't list the raw data) we get the model

CET = 0.381433*pop + 8.68655
Pr(beta>0) = 98.68%
(beta 95% confidence interval  .045 to .717 )
(Spearman corr fails)

Which is remarkably similar to the prev value despite CET being
an actual avg temp in deg C and deltaTS being a proxy and as
at a location that varies from -50C to 0C each year.

-- 
Wood is highly ecological, since trees are a renewable resource.  If    
you cut down a tree, another will grow in its place.  And if you cut
down the new tree, still another will grow.  And if you cut down that
tree, yet another will grow, only this one will be a mutation with
long, poisonous tentacles and revenge in its heart, and it will sit
there in the forest, cackling and making elaborate plans for when you
come back.
-- Dave Barry, "Postpetroleum Guzzler"

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#545740

R Kym Horsell <kym@kymhorsell.com> wrote:
> Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> wrote:
>> Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age?
> ...
> 
> There's certainly some evidence for this.
> 
> We have reasonable estimates of human populations from 0-2000ad for example
> and we can compare that against the proxy global temps from the Vostok ice cores.
> 
> The table that my database spits out is:
> 
> Year            pop bn          Vostok delaTS (C)
> 1102            0.3226          -0.78
> 1069            0.32775         -0.78
> 1038            0.3355          -0.17
> 1006            0.3435          -0.25
> 1133            0.3629          -0.17
> 1398            0.3763          -1.61
> 1162            0.4006          -0.1
> 1369            0.40965         -0.9
> 1255            0.4176          -1.23
> 1427            0.41882         -1.39
> 1285            0.4272          -0.18
> 1224            0.43368         -1.54
> 1313            0.435575        -0.02
> 1193            0.4409          -0.85
> 1341            0.44185         -0.6
> 1455            0.4653          -1.08
> 1481            0.50846         -0.08
> 1506            0.54234         0.18
> 1623            0.54772         -0.22
> 1530            0.5517          0.35
> 1599            0.56336         -0.48
> 1553            0.56925         0.23
> 1575            0.57861         -0.75
> 1646            0.59592         -0.75
> 1669            0.65756         -1.09
> 1692            0.89896         -0.95
> 1716            0.9938          0.36
> 1739            1.0594          0.02
> 1760            1.13054         -0.81
> 1780            1.24134         0
> 1801            1.3466          0
> 
> 
> And a TS-sensitive regression finds the model
> 
> deltaTS = 0.596689*pop - 0.853777
> where Pr(beta)>0 is 95.0243%
> Spearman corr = .32379 (> 5% 2-sided crit val  .306)
> 
> So there is some prima facie evidence that temps at
> Vostok (several km up and near the S pole) were rising
> about .6C per billion human population between ~1000ad and ~1850ad.
> 
> Because warming tends at the S Pole may not be numerically
> very close to the global avgerate temperature or warming in
> any temperate region we can check the Vostok result with another
> model. I.e.  the world population against the long-running Central 
> England Temperature record.
> 
> When we do that (much bigger overlap since CET runs 1659- ; so I
> won't list the raw data) we get the model
> 
> CET = 0.381433*pop + 8.68655
> Pr(beta>0) = 98.68%
> (beta 95% confidence interval  .045 to .717 )
> (Spearman corr fails)
> 
> Which is remarkably similar to the prev value despite CET being
> an actual avg temp in deg C and deltaTS being a proxy and as
> at a location that varies from -50C to 0C each year.

It is far more probable that a warming Earth allowed for increased
population than it is an increased population warmed the Earth.

99% of convicted murders ate potatoes within a week of commiting their
crime, therefor eating potatoes causes murder.


-- 
Jim Pennino

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#545743

On 1/15/16 6:18 PM, jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com wrote:
> It is far more probable that a warming Earth allowed for increased
> population than it is an increased population warmed the Earth.


   Nope -- it's CO2 that's warming the earth and humans have been burning
   tens of millions of years of sequestered carbon in the last 150 years.

   You can read all about it here:
> http://edu-observatory.org/olli/Climate/Week1.pdf

   Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age?
> http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/did-early-agricultural-co2-save-earth-from-an-ice-age.html

 > Earth has had a narrow escape from a new ice age possibly due to
 > humanity's early CO2 emissions, according to a paper in Nature.
 > Modelling studies looking at the link between insolation and CO2
 > confirm that we would now be entering an ice age had atmospheric CO2
 > concentrations prior to the industrial revolution not risen above
 > 240ppm


 > Abstract
 >
 > The past rapid growth of Northern Hemisphere continental ice sheets,
 > which terminated warm and stable climate periods, is generally
 > attributed to reduced summer insolation in boreal latitudes. Yet such
 > summer insolation is near to its minimum at present, and there are no
 > signs of a new ice age. This challenges our understanding of the
 > mechanisms driving glacial cycles and our ability to predict the next
 > glacial inception. Here we propose a critical functional relationship
 > between boreal summer insolation and global carbon dioxide (CO2)
 > concentration, which explains the beginning of the past eight glacial
 > cycles and might anticipate future periods of glacial inception.
 > Using an ensemble of simulations generated by an Earth system model
 > of intermediate complexity constrained by palaeoclimatic data, we
 > suggest that glacial inception was narrowly missed before the
 > beginning of the Industrial Revolution. The missed inception can be
 > accounted for by the combined effect of relatively high late-Holocene
 > CO2concentrations and the low orbital eccentricity of the Earth.
 > Additionally, our analysis suggests that even in the absence of human
 > perturbations no substantial build-up of ice sheets would occur
 > within the next several thousand years and that the current
 > interglacial would probably last for another 50,000 years. However,
 > moderate anthropogenic cumulative CO2 emissions of 1,000 to 1,500
 > gigatonnes of carbon will postpone the next glacial inception by at
 > least 100,000 years. Our simulations demonstrate that under natural
 > conditions alone the Earth system would be expected to remain in the
 > present delicately balanced interglacial climate state, steering
 > clear of both large-scale glaciation of the Northern Hemisphere and
 > its complete deglaciation, for an unusually long time.
 >
 > Citation
 >
 > Critical insolation–CO2 relation for diagnosing past and future
 > glacial inception by A.Ganopolski, R.Winkelmann and H. J.Schellnhuber
 > published in Nature, doi:10.1038/nature16494
 >


-- 

sci.physics is an unmoderated newsgroup dedicated
to the discussion of physics, news from the physics
community, and physics-related social issues.

[toc] | [prev] | [next] | [standalone]

#545765

Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> wrote:
> On 1/15/16 6:18 PM, jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com wrote:
>> It is far more probable that a warming Earth allowed for increased
>> population than it is an increased population warmed the Earth.
> 
> 
>   Nope -- it's CO2 that's warming the earth and humans have been burning
>   tens of millions of years of sequestered carbon in the last 150 years.

We were talking about a period of almost 1,000 years, cut and paste,
spamming shit head.

Learn to read before you knee jerk another cut and paste.


-- 
Jim Pennino

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#545793

On 1/15/16 7:39 PM, jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com wrote:
> We were talking about a period of almost 1,000 years, cut and paste,
> spamming shit head.




   Now, now, jimp, there you go again, you're outta control, your
   language is inappropriate, and your absolute contempt and total
   disgust are addressed in these Anger Management classes. You, jimp,
   need these services:
 > http://yellowpages.com/rancho-cucamonga-ca/anger-management-classes


   Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age?
> http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/did-early-agricultural-co2-save-earth-from-an-ice-age.html

 > Earth has had a narrow escape from a new ice age possibly due to
 > humanity's early CO2 emissions, according to a paper in Nature.
 > Modelling studies looking at the link between insolation and CO2
 > confirm that we would now be entering an ice age had atmospheric CO2
 > concentrations prior to the industrial revolution not risen above
 > 240ppm


 > Abstract
 >
 > The past rapid growth of Northern Hemisphere continental ice sheets,
 > which terminated warm and stable climate periods, is generally
 > attributed to reduced summer insolation in boreal latitudes. Yet such
 > summer insolation is near to its minimum at present, and there are no
 > signs of a new ice age. This challenges our understanding of the
 > mechanisms driving glacial cycles and our ability to predict the next
 > glacial inception. Here we propose a critical functional relationship
 > between boreal summer insolation and global carbon dioxide (CO2)
 > concentration, which explains the beginning of the past eight glacial
 > cycles and might anticipate future periods of glacial inception.
 > Using an ensemble of simulations generated by an Earth system model
 > of intermediate complexity constrained by palaeoclimatic data, we
 > suggest that glacial inception was narrowly missed before the
 > beginning of the Industrial Revolution. The missed inception can be
 > accounted for by the combined effect of relatively high late-Holocene
 > CO2concentrations and the low orbital eccentricity of the Earth.
 > Additionally, our analysis suggests that even in the absence of human
 > perturbations no substantial build-up of ice sheets would occur
 > within the next several thousand years and that the current
 > interglacial would probably last for another 50,000 years. However,
 > moderate anthropogenic cumulative CO2 emissions of 1,000 to 1,500
 > gigatonnes of carbon will postpone the next glacial inception by at
 > least 100,000 years. Our simulations demonstrate that under natural
 > conditions alone the Earth system would be expected to remain in the
 > present delicately balanced interglacial climate state, steering
 > clear of both large-scale glaciation of the Northern Hemisphere and
 > its complete deglaciation, for an unusually long time.
 >
 > Citation
 >
 > Critical insolation–CO2 relation for diagnosing past and future
 > glacial inception by A.Ganopolski, R.Winkelmann and H. J.Schellnhuber
 > published in Nature, doi:10.1038/nature16494
 >



-- 



sci.physics is an unmoderated newsgroup dedicated
to the discussion of physics, news from the physics
community, and physics-related social issues.

[toc] | [prev] | [next] | [standalone]

#545815

Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> wrote:
> On 1/15/16 7:39 PM, jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com wrote:
>> We were talking about a period of almost 1,000 years, cut and paste,
>> spamming shit head.
> 
> 
> 
> 
>   Now, now, jimp, there you go again, you're outta control, your

Fuck off and die, cut and paste, spamming shit head.


-- 
Jim Pennino

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#545855

On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:19:37 PM UTC-8, Sam Wormley wrote:
> Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age?
> > http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/did-early-agricultural-co2-save-earth-from-an-ice-age.html
> 
> > Earth has had a narrow escape from a new ice age possibly due to
> > humanity's early CO2 emissions, according to a paper in Nature.
> > Modelling studies looking at the link between insolation and CO2
> > confirm that we would now be entering an ice age had atmospheric CO2
> > concentrations prior to the industrial revolution not risen above
> > 240ppm
> 
> 
> > Abstract
> >
> > The past rapid growth of Northern Hemisphere continental ice sheets,
> > which terminated warm and stable climate periods, is generally
> > attributed to reduced summer insolation in boreal latitudes. Yet such
> > summer insolation is near to its minimum at present, and there are no
> > signs of a new ice age. This challenges our understanding of the
> > mechanisms driving glacial cycles and our ability to predict the next
> > glacial inception. Here we propose a critical functional relationship
> > between boreal summer insolation and global carbon dioxide (CO2)
> > concentration, which explains the beginning of the past eight glacial
> > cycles and might anticipate future periods of glacial inception.
> > Using an ensemble of simulations generated by an Earth system model
> > of intermediate complexity constrained by palaeoclimatic data, we
> > suggest that glacial inception was narrowly missed before the
> > beginning of the Industrial Revolution. The missed inception can be
> > accounted for by the combined effect of relatively high late-Holocene
> > CO2concentrations and the low orbital eccentricity of the Earth.
> > Additionally, our analysis suggests that even in the absence of human
> > perturbations no substantial build-up of ice sheets would occur
> > within the next several thousand years and that the current
> > interglacial would probably last for another 50,000 years. However,
> > moderate anthropogenic cumulative CO2 emissions of 1,000 to 1,500
> > gigatonnes of carbon will postpone the next glacial inception by at
> > least 100,000 years. Our simulations demonstrate that under natural
> > conditions alone the Earth system would be expected to remain in the
> > present delicately balanced interglacial climate state, steering
> > clear of both large-scale glaciation of the Northern Hemisphere and
> > its complete deglaciation, for an unusually long time.
> >
> > Citation
> >
> > Critical insolation-CO2 relation for diagnosing past and future
> > glacial inception by A.Ganopolski, R.Winkelmann and H. J.Schellnhuber
> > published in Nature, doi:10.1038/nature16494
> >
> 
> 
> -- 
> 
> sci.physics is an unmoderated newsgroup dedicated
> to the discussion of physics, news from the physics
> community, and physics-related social issues.

NO it did little TreBert

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#545868

On 01/16/2016 01:03 PM, reber g=emc^2 wrote:
> On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:19:37 PM UTC-8, Sam Wormley wrote:
>> Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age?
>>> http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/did-early-agricultural-co2-save-earth-from-an-ice-age.html
>>
>>> Earth has had a narrow escape from a new ice age possibly due to
>>> humanity's early CO2 emissions, according to a paper in Nature.
>>> Modelling studies looking at the link between insolation and CO2
>>> confirm that we would now be entering an ice age had atmospheric CO2
>>> concentrations prior to the industrial revolution not risen above
>>> 240ppm
>>
>>
>>> Abstract
>>>
>>> The past rapid growth of Northern Hemisphere continental ice sheets,
>>> which terminated warm and stable climate periods, is generally
>>> attributed to reduced summer insolation in boreal latitudes. Yet such
>>> summer insolation is near to its minimum at present, and there are no
>>> signs of a new ice age. This challenges our understanding of the
>>> mechanisms driving glacial cycles and our ability to predict the next
>>> glacial inception. Here we propose a critical functional relationship
>>> between boreal summer insolation and global carbon dioxide (CO2)
>>> concentration, which explains the beginning of the past eight glacial
>>> cycles and might anticipate future periods of glacial inception.
>>> Using an ensemble of simulations generated by an Earth system model
>>> of intermediate complexity constrained by palaeoclimatic data, we
>>> suggest that glacial inception was narrowly missed before the
>>> beginning of the Industrial Revolution. The missed inception can be
>>> accounted for by the combined effect of relatively high late-Holocene
>>> CO2concentrations and the low orbital eccentricity of the Earth.
>>> Additionally, our analysis suggests that even in the absence of human
>>> perturbations no substantial build-up of ice sheets would occur
>>> within the next several thousand years and that the current
>>> interglacial would probably last for another 50,000 years. However,
>>> moderate anthropogenic cumulative CO2 emissions of 1,000 to 1,500
>>> gigatonnes of carbon will postpone the next glacial inception by at
>>> least 100,000 years. Our simulations demonstrate that under natural
>>> conditions alone the Earth system would be expected to remain in the
>>> present delicately balanced interglacial climate state, steering
>>> clear of both large-scale glaciation of the Northern Hemisphere and
>>> its complete deglaciation, for an unusually long time.
>>>
>>> Citation
>>>
>>> Critical insolation-CO2 relation for diagnosing past and future
>>> glacial inception by A.Ganopolski, R.Winkelmann and H. J.Schellnhuber
>>> published in Nature, doi:10.1038/nature16494
>>>
>>
>>
>> --
>>
>> sci.physics is an unmoderated newsgroup dedicated
>> to the discussion of physics, news from the physics
>> community, and physics-related social issues.
>
> NO it did little TreBert
>
Sam, Herb right on the money again! In case you "scientists" didn't 
notice, agriculture (growing of plants) ABSORBS CO2 and creates oxygen, 
a fact that somehow escaped the political lackey editors at Nature.

They'll obviously publish any pseudoscience so long as it promotes their 
global warming tax scam.

-- 

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    /:/\:\  \     /:/\:\  \     /:|:|  |     ___ /::\__\
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  /:/\:\ \:|__| /:/\:\ \:\__\ /:/ |:| /\__\ \:\/:/  /
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#548506

Le 14/01/2016 05:19, Sam Wormley a écrit :
> Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age?
>> http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/did-early-agricultural-co2-save-earth-from-an-ice-age.html
>>
>
>> Earth has had a narrow escape from a new ice age possibly due to
>> humanity's early CO2 emissions, according to a paper in Nature.
>> Modelling studies looking at the link between insolation and CO2
>> confirm that we would now be entering an ice age had atmospheric CO2
>> concentrations prior to the industrial revolution not risen above
>> 240ppm
>
>
>> Abstract
>>
>> The past rapid growth of Northern Hemisphere continental ice sheets,
>> which terminated warm and stable climate periods, is generally
>> attributed to reduced summer insolation in boreal latitudes. Yet such
>> summer insolation is near to its minimum at present, and there are no
>> signs of a new ice age. This challenges our understanding of the
>> mechanisms driving glacial cycles and our ability to predict the next
>> glacial inception. Here we propose a critical functional relationship
>> between boreal summer insolation and global carbon dioxide (CO2)
>> concentration, which explains the beginning of the past eight glacial
>> cycles and might anticipate future periods of glacial inception.
>> Using an ensemble of simulations generated by an Earth system model
>> of intermediate complexity constrained by palaeoclimatic data, we
>> suggest that glacial inception was narrowly missed before the
>> beginning of the Industrial Revolution. The missed inception can be
>> accounted for by the combined effect of relatively high late-Holocene
>> CO2concentrations and the low orbital eccentricity of the Earth.
>> Additionally, our analysis suggests that even in the absence of human
>> perturbations no substantial build-up of ice sheets would occur
>> within the next several thousand years and that the current
>> interglacial would probably last for another 50,000 years. However,
>> moderate anthropogenic cumulative CO2 emissions of 1,000 to 1,500
>> gigatonnes of carbon will postpone the next glacial inception by at
>> least 100,000 years. Our simulations demonstrate that under natural
>> conditions alone the Earth system would be expected to remain in the
>> present delicately balanced interglacial climate state, steering
>> clear of both large-scale glaciation of the Northern Hemisphere and
>> its complete deglaciation, for an unusually long time.
>>
>> Citation
>>
>> Critical insolation–CO2 relation for diagnosing past and future
>> glacial inception by A.Ganopolski, R.Winkelmann and H. J.Schellnhuber
>> published in Nature, doi:10.1038/nature16494

Hoax, as any other productions from the Intergovernmental Pack of
Carbocentric Crooks.

-- 
http://jacques.lavau.perso.sfr.fr/Physique/Microphysique_contee.pdf
http://deontologic.org/quantic

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