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Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age?

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R Kym Horsell <kym@kymhorsell.com> wrote:
> Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> wrote:
>> Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age?
> ...
> 
> There's certainly some evidence for this.
> 
> We have reasonable estimates of human populations from 0-2000ad for example
> and we can compare that against the proxy global temps from the Vostok ice cores.
> 
> The table that my database spits out is:
> 
> Year            pop bn          Vostok delaTS (C)
> 1102            0.3226          -0.78
> 1069            0.32775         -0.78
> 1038            0.3355          -0.17
> 1006            0.3435          -0.25
> 1133            0.3629          -0.17
> 1398            0.3763          -1.61
> 1162            0.4006          -0.1
> 1369            0.40965         -0.9
> 1255            0.4176          -1.23
> 1427            0.41882         -1.39
> 1285            0.4272          -0.18
> 1224            0.43368         -1.54
> 1313            0.435575        -0.02
> 1193            0.4409          -0.85
> 1341            0.44185         -0.6
> 1455            0.4653          -1.08
> 1481            0.50846         -0.08
> 1506            0.54234         0.18
> 1623            0.54772         -0.22
> 1530            0.5517          0.35
> 1599            0.56336         -0.48
> 1553            0.56925         0.23
> 1575            0.57861         -0.75
> 1646            0.59592         -0.75
> 1669            0.65756         -1.09
> 1692            0.89896         -0.95
> 1716            0.9938          0.36
> 1739            1.0594          0.02
> 1760            1.13054         -0.81
> 1780            1.24134         0
> 1801            1.3466          0
> 
> 
> And a TS-sensitive regression finds the model
> 
> deltaTS = 0.596689*pop - 0.853777
> where Pr(beta)>0 is 95.0243%
> Spearman corr = .32379 (> 5% 2-sided crit val  .306)
> 
> So there is some prima facie evidence that temps at
> Vostok (several km up and near the S pole) were rising
> about .6C per billion human population between ~1000ad and ~1850ad.
> 
> Because warming tends at the S Pole may not be numerically
> very close to the global avgerate temperature or warming in
> any temperate region we can check the Vostok result with another
> model. I.e.  the world population against the long-running Central 
> England Temperature record.
> 
> When we do that (much bigger overlap since CET runs 1659- ; so I
> won't list the raw data) we get the model
> 
> CET = 0.381433*pop + 8.68655
> Pr(beta>0) = 98.68%
> (beta 95% confidence interval  .045 to .717 )
> (Spearman corr fails)
> 
> Which is remarkably similar to the prev value despite CET being
> an actual avg temp in deg C and deltaTS being a proxy and as
> at a location that varies from -50C to 0C each year.

It is far more probable that a warming Earth allowed for increased
population than it is an increased population warmed the Earth.

99% of convicted murders ate potatoes within a week of commiting their
crime, therefor eating potatoes causes murder.


-- 
Jim Pennino

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Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2016-01-13 22:19 -0600
  Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-01-14 04:59 +0000
  Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? James McGinn <jimmcginn9@gmail.com> - 2016-01-15 13:58 -0800
  Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? Sergio <invalid@invalid.com> - 2016-01-15 16:04 -0600
  Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? R Kym Horsell <kym@kymhorsell.com> - 2016-01-15 22:35 +0000
    Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-01-16 00:18 +0000
      Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2016-01-15 18:36 -0600
        Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-01-16 01:39 +0000
          Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2016-01-15 22:23 -0600
            Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-01-16 07:01 +0000
  Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2016-01-16 10:03 -0800
    Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? benj <none@gmail.com> - 2016-01-16 14:07 -0500
  Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? jc_lavau <NolavauSpamjac@cleube-internet.effer> - 2016-01-27 08:59 +0100

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