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Groups > sci.physics > #545708
| From | R Kym Horsell <kym@kymhorsell.com> |
|---|---|
| Newsgroups | sci.physics |
| Subject | Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? |
| Date | 2016-01-15 22:35 +0000 |
| Organization | kymhorsell.com |
| Message-ID | <n7bs7k$176i$1@gioia.aioe.org> (permalink) |
| References | <W9ednfWWSLJIvArLnZ2dnUU7-emdnZ2d@giganews.com> |
Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> wrote: > Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? ... There's certainly some evidence for this. We have reasonable estimates of human populations from 0-2000ad for example and we can compare that against the proxy global temps from the Vostok ice cores. The table that my database spits out is: Year pop bn Vostok delaTS (C) 1102 0.3226 -0.78 1069 0.32775 -0.78 1038 0.3355 -0.17 1006 0.3435 -0.25 1133 0.3629 -0.17 1398 0.3763 -1.61 1162 0.4006 -0.1 1369 0.40965 -0.9 1255 0.4176 -1.23 1427 0.41882 -1.39 1285 0.4272 -0.18 1224 0.43368 -1.54 1313 0.435575 -0.02 1193 0.4409 -0.85 1341 0.44185 -0.6 1455 0.4653 -1.08 1481 0.50846 -0.08 1506 0.54234 0.18 1623 0.54772 -0.22 1530 0.5517 0.35 1599 0.56336 -0.48 1553 0.56925 0.23 1575 0.57861 -0.75 1646 0.59592 -0.75 1669 0.65756 -1.09 1692 0.89896 -0.95 1716 0.9938 0.36 1739 1.0594 0.02 1760 1.13054 -0.81 1780 1.24134 0 1801 1.3466 0 And a TS-sensitive regression finds the model deltaTS = 0.596689*pop - 0.853777 where Pr(beta)>0 is 95.0243% Spearman corr = .32379 (> 5% 2-sided crit val .306) So there is some prima facie evidence that temps at Vostok (several km up and near the S pole) were rising about .6C per billion human population between ~1000ad and ~1850ad. Because warming tends at the S Pole may not be numerically very close to the global avgerate temperature or warming in any temperate region we can check the Vostok result with another model. I.e. the world population against the long-running Central England Temperature record. When we do that (much bigger overlap since CET runs 1659- ; so I won't list the raw data) we get the model CET = 0.381433*pop + 8.68655 Pr(beta>0) = 98.68% (beta 95% confidence interval .045 to .717 ) (Spearman corr fails) Which is remarkably similar to the prev value despite CET being an actual avg temp in deg C and deltaTS being a proxy and as at a location that varies from -50C to 0C each year. -- Wood is highly ecological, since trees are a renewable resource. If you cut down a tree, another will grow in its place. And if you cut down the new tree, still another will grow. And if you cut down that tree, yet another will grow, only this one will be a mutation with long, poisonous tentacles and revenge in its heart, and it will sit there in the forest, cackling and making elaborate plans for when you come back. -- Dave Barry, "Postpetroleum Guzzler"
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Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2016-01-13 22:19 -0600
Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-01-14 04:59 +0000
Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? James McGinn <jimmcginn9@gmail.com> - 2016-01-15 13:58 -0800
Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? Sergio <invalid@invalid.com> - 2016-01-15 16:04 -0600
Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? R Kym Horsell <kym@kymhorsell.com> - 2016-01-15 22:35 +0000
Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-01-16 00:18 +0000
Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2016-01-15 18:36 -0600
Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-01-16 01:39 +0000
Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2016-01-15 22:23 -0600
Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-01-16 07:01 +0000
Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2016-01-16 10:03 -0800
Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? benj <none@gmail.com> - 2016-01-16 14:07 -0500
Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? jc_lavau <NolavauSpamjac@cleube-internet.effer> - 2016-01-27 08:59 +0100
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