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Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age?

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Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> wrote:
> Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age?
>> http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/did-early-agricultural-co2-save-earth-from-an-ice-age.html
> 
>> Earth has had a narrow escape from a new ice age possibly due to
>> humanity's early CO2 emissions, according to a paper in Nature.
>> Modelling studies looking at the link between insolation and CO2
>> confirm that we would now be entering an ice age had atmospheric CO2
>> concentrations prior to the industrial revolution not risen above
>> 240ppm
> 
> 
>> Abstract
>>
>> The past rapid growth of Northern Hemisphere continental ice sheets,
>> which terminated warm and stable climate periods, is generally
>> attributed to reduced summer insolation in boreal latitudes. Yet such
>> summer insolation is near to its minimum at present, and there are no
>> signs of a new ice age. This challenges our understanding of the
>> mechanisms driving glacial cycles and our ability to predict the next
>> glacial inception. Here we propose a critical functional relationship
>> between boreal summer insolation and global carbon dioxide (CO2)
>> concentration, which explains the beginning of the past eight glacial
>> cycles and might anticipate future periods of glacial inception.
>> Using an ensemble of simulations generated by an Earth system model
>> of intermediate complexity constrained by palaeoclimatic data, we
>> suggest that glacial inception was narrowly missed before the
>> beginning of the Industrial Revolution. The missed inception can be
>> accounted for by the combined effect of relatively high late-Holocene
>> CO2concentrations and the low orbital eccentricity of the Earth.
>> Additionally, our analysis suggests that even in the absence of human
>> perturbations no substantial build-up of ice sheets would occur
>> within the next several thousand years and that the current
>> interglacial would probably last for another 50,000 years. However,
>> moderate anthropogenic cumulative CO2 emissions of 1,000 to 1,500
>> gigatonnes of carbon will postpone the next glacial inception by at
>> least 100,000 years. Our simulations demonstrate that under natural
>> conditions alone the Earth system would be expected to remain in the
>> present delicately balanced interglacial climate state, steering
>> clear of both large-scale glaciation of the Northern Hemisphere and
>> its complete deglaciation, for an unusually long time.
>>
>> Citation
>>
>> Critical insolation?CO2 relation for diagnosing past and future
>> glacial inception by A.Ganopolski, R.Winkelmann and H. J.Schellnhuber
>> published in Nature, doi:10.1038/nature16494
>>

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-- 
Jim Pennino

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Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2016-01-13 22:19 -0600
  Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-01-14 04:59 +0000
  Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? James McGinn <jimmcginn9@gmail.com> - 2016-01-15 13:58 -0800
  Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? Sergio <invalid@invalid.com> - 2016-01-15 16:04 -0600
  Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? R Kym Horsell <kym@kymhorsell.com> - 2016-01-15 22:35 +0000
    Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-01-16 00:18 +0000
      Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2016-01-15 18:36 -0600
        Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-01-16 01:39 +0000
          Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2016-01-15 22:23 -0600
            Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-01-16 07:01 +0000
  Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2016-01-16 10:03 -0800
    Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? benj <none@gmail.com> - 2016-01-16 14:07 -0500
  Re: Did Early Agricultural CO2 Save Earth From An Ice Age? jc_lavau <NolavauSpamjac@cleube-internet.effer> - 2016-01-27 08:59 +0100

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