Groups > sci.physics > #591590 > unrolled thread

99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record

Started by	Sergio <invalid@invalid.com>
First post	2016-08-01 23:40 -0500
Last post	2016-09-19 21:24 +0000
Articles	20 on this page of 31 — 9 participants

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  99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record Sergio <invalid@invalid.com> - 2016-08-01 23:40 -0500
    Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record "Friendly Neighborhood Vote Wrangler Emeritus, DoW #1" <FNVWe@altusenetkooks.xxx> - 2016-08-02 07:17 +0200
      Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record "Friendly Neighborhood Vote Wrangler Emeritus, DoW #1" <FNVWe@altusenetkooks.xxx> - 2016-08-02 08:39 +0200
        Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record "Friendly Neighborhood Vote Wrangler Emeritus, DoW #1" <FNVWe@altusenetkooks.xxx> - 2016-08-03 07:28 +0200
          Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record "Friendly Neighborhood Vote Wrangler Emeritus, DoW #1" <FNVWe@altusenetkooks.xxx> - 2016-08-03 08:14 +0200
            Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2016-08-03 14:03 -0700
              Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-08-03 21:49 +0000
                also, Antarctican peninsulA noTthaTguY <abu.kuanysh05@gmail.com> - 2016-08-04 12:33 -0700
              Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2016-08-06 14:16 -0700
                Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record benj <benj@nobody.net> - 2016-08-06 19:17 -0400
                Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record benj <benj@nobody.net> - 2016-08-06 19:19 -0400
    Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record The Starmaker <starmaker@ix.netcom.com> - 2016-08-02 13:16 -0700
      m, the bell rings like this noTthaTguY <abu.kuanysh05@gmail.com> - 2016-08-02 16:00 -0700
    Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record Sergio <invalid@invalid.com> - 2016-08-24 21:05 -0500
    Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2016-08-25 13:20 -0700
      Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-08-25 21:17 +0000
        Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2016-08-26 12:12 -0700
          Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-08-26 19:41 +0000
            Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2016-09-03 14:20 -0700
              Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-09-03 21:55 +0000
          Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record "hanson" <hanson@quick.net> - 2016-08-26 13:46 -0700
      Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record "hanson" <hanson@quick.net> - 2016-08-25 16:17 -0700
    Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record James McGinn <jimmcginn9@gmail.com> - 2016-09-03 10:43 -0700
      Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2016-09-03 14:29 -0700
        Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-09-03 21:57 +0000
          Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2016-09-03 15:49 -0700
            Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record "hanson" <hanson@quick.net> - 2016-09-03 17:31 -0700
          Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2016-09-04 10:30 -0700
            Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-09-04 18:48 +0000
              Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2016-09-19 13:53 -0700
                Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-09-19 21:24 +0000

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#591590 — 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record

From	Sergio <invalid@invalid.com>
Date	2016-08-01 23:40 -0500
Subject	99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record
Message-ID	<nnp87s$nbg$1@gioia.aioe.org>

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/99-percent-chance-2016-will-be-the-hottest-year-on-record/

Odds are increasing that 2016 will be the hottest year on the books, as
April continued a remarkable streak of record-warm months.

Last month was rated as the warmest April on record by both NASA and the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which released their
data this week. In the temperature annals kept by NOAA, it marked the
12th record warmest month in a row.

Global temperatures have been hovering around 1.5°C (2.7°F) above
pre-industrial averages—a threshold that’s being considered by
international negotiators as a new goal for limiting warming.

While an exceptionally strong El Niño has provided a boost to
temperatures in recent months, the primary driver has been the heat that
has built up from decades of unabated greenhouse gas emissions.

How global temperatures have differed from average so far this year.
Credit: NOAA
Nearing 1.5°C

NOAA announced its temperature data for April on Wednesday, with the
month measuring 1.98°F (1.1°C) above the 20th century average of 56.7°F
(13.7°C). It was warmer than the previous record-hot April of 2010 by
0.5°F (0.3°C).

NASA’s data showed the month was about the same amount above the average
from 1951-1980. The two agencies use different baselines and process the
global temperature data slightly differently, leading to potential
differences in the exact temperatures anomalies for each month and year.

Both agencies’ records show that global temperatures have come down
slightly from the peaks they hit in February and March, which ranked as
the most anomalously warm months by NASA and NOAA, respectively.

Climate Central has reanalyzed the temperature data from recent months,
averaging the NASA and NOAA numbers and comparing it to the average from
1881-1910 to show how much temperatures have risen from a period closer
to preindustrial times.

The analysis shows that the year-to-date temperature through April is
1.45°C above the average from that period. Governments have agreed to
limit warming this century to less than 2°C from pre-industrial times
and are exploring setting an even more ambitious goal of 1.5°C, which
temperatures are currently close to.

A year-to-date look at 2016 global temperatures compared to recent years.
Click image to enlarge.

“The fact that we are beginning to cross key thresholds at the monthly
timescale is indeed an indication of how close we are getting to
permanently exceeding those thresholds,” Michael Mann, a climate
scientist at Penn State, said in an email.

It will take a significant effort to further limit emissions of carbon
dioxide and other heat-trapping gases to realize those goals, experts
say. Carbon dioxide levels at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii are
already poised to stay above 400 parts per million year-round. They have
risen from a pre-industrial level of 280 ppm and from 315 ppm just since
the mid-20th century.
Hottest Year?

As El Niño continues to rapidly decay, monthly temperature anomalies are
slowly declining. They are still considerably higher than they were just
last year, the current title-holder for the hottest year on record.

Given the head start this year has over last, there is a more than 99
percent chance that 2016 will best 2015 as the hottest year on the
books, according to Gavin Schmidt, head of NASA’s Goddard Institute for
Space Studies, which keeps the agencies temperature data.

If 2016 does set the mark, it will be the third record-setting year in a
row.

It is likely, though, that the streak would end with this year, as a La
Niña event is looking increasingly likely to follow El Niño, and it
tends to have a cooling effect on global temperatures.

But even La Niña years today are warmer than El Niño years of previous
decades—a clear sign of how much human caused-warming has increased
global temperatures. In fact, the planet hasn’t seen a record cold year
since 1911.

This article is reproduced with permission from Climate Central. The
article was first published on May 18, 2016.

[toc] | [next] | [standalone]

#591606

From	"Friendly Neighborhood Vote Wrangler Emeritus, DoW #1" <FNVWe@altusenetkooks.xxx>
Date	2016-08-02 07:17 +0200
Message-ID	<cddc68b63e53f76c5f24c1a5e7664cae@dizum.com>
In reply to	#591590

Time to spin the kooks up again. Melt, kooks, melt. <snicker>

Sergio, in <news:nnp87s$nbg$1@gioia.aioe.org> did thusly jump head
first into the wood chipper again:

> <snip warmist alarmist bullshit>

Don't believe the hype... the below is from a prior post I'd made:
Message-ID: <e9391f0d9dc4a4b79fa3520f972fe2f2@dizum.com>
\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Let's look at absolute proof that the Klimate Katastrophe Kooks have
fiddled with the temperature records as means of pushing their
libtarded politicized AGW scam via hysterical alarmist
proclamations... take a look at the data in the URL  below...

<http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0beta/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0beta5.txt>

That's the complete UAH lower troposphere temperature dataset.

The sums of all values for the columns is:
Globe: 7.46 C
Globe Land: 10.88 C
Globe Ocean: 6.11 C
Northern Hemisphere: 9.95 C
Northern Hemisphere Land: 11.68 C
Northern Hemisphere Ocean: 8.87 C
Southern Hemisphere: 4.77 C
Southern Hemisphere Land: 8.85 C
Southern Hemisphere Ocean: 3.88 C

Does anyone believe the planet has heated up by an average 7.46 C
(13.43 F) from December 1978 to 2016 to date?

Does anyone believe the Northern Hemisphere Land has heated up by an
average 11.68 C (21.02 F) from December 1978 to 2016 to date?

Or is the more likely scenario that the Klimate Katastrophe Kooks have
been bumping up the numbers for the past four years or so, so they can
bleat out yet another alarmist "warmust monf eva! DUUURRRH!" lie?

The averages from December 1978 through December 2011:
Globe: -0.0074811083
Globe Land: -0.0063224181
Globe Ocean: -0.0080352645
Northern Hemisphere: -0.0088161209
Northern Hemisphere Land: -0.0083375315
Northern Hemisphere Ocean: -0.0091435768
Southern Hemisphere: -0.0067506297
Southern Hemisphere Land: -0.0022921914
Southern Hemisphere Ocean: -0.0077329975

Does... does that show a *negative* average for all categories from
December 1978 through December 2011? LOL

But that'd mean the planet was actually 397 months * -0.0074811083 C /
month = -2.9699999951 C (5.346 F) *cooler* on average than the 1978
average by December 2011. That's not reflected on the very graphs the
Klimate Katastrophe Kooks use.

The average from January 2012 through 2016 to date:
Globe: 0.2005769231
Globe Land: 0.2575
Globe Ocean: 0.1788461538
Northern Hemisphere: 0.2586538462
Northern Hemisphere Land: 0.2882692308
Northern Hemisphere Ocean: 0.2403846154
Southern Hemisphere: 0.1432692308
Southern Hemisphere Land: 0.1876923077
Southern Hemisphere Ocean: 0.1336538462

Well, that makes it pretty easy to see when they started fudging the
numbers so they could keep bleating alarmist bullshit about each month
being a new record, eh? LOL

The average from January 2014 through 2016 to date:
Globe: 0.2896428571
Globe Land: 0.305
Globe Ocean: 0.2842857143
Northern Hemisphere: 0.3742857143
Northern Hemisphere Land: 0.3664285714
Northern Hemisphere Ocean: 0.3803571429
Southern Hemisphere: 0.2053571429
Southern Hemisphere Land: 0.1667857143
Southern Hemisphere Ocean: 0.2132142857

The average from January 2015 through 2016 to date:
Globe: 0.371875
Globe Land: 0.413125
Globe Ocean: 0.356875
Northern Hemisphere: 0.4975
Northern Hemisphere Land: 0.52625
Northern Hemisphere Ocean: 0.48
Southern Hemisphere: 0.248125
Southern Hemisphere Land: 0.1575
Southern Hemisphere Ocean: 0.26625

Does anyone believe that the planet has been heating up by 0.371875 C
(0.6694 F) *per* *month* on average since January 2015? That'd mean
the planet's heated up by 10.7104 F on average since January 2015.
Anyone gullible enough to believe that? Anyone? Anyone?

Does anyone believe that Northern Hemisphere Land is heating up by
0.52625 C (0.9473 F) *per* *month* on average since January 2015?
That'd mean the Northern Hemisphere Land has heated up by 15.1568 F on
average since January 2015. Anyone stupid and gullible enough to
believe that? Anyone? Anyone?

Just how gullible do these morons think people are? LOL

SPNAK! on the Klimate Katastrophe Kooks.

As the anthropogenic global warming scam is exposed, the kooktards
pushing the scam get more hysterical and alarmist... and now we see
that it's reaching the point where they're making a ludicrous
laughingstock of themselves.

Now bleat, morons. Your religiously held belief in AGW has yet again
been exposed to the light of truth, and it's dying, shriveling up
before your eyes.

<snicker>
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\

I've got the underlying (read: unmanipulated) data from RSS, UAH,
NASA, NOAA and NSIDC... every data set shows the planet is cooling,
has been for ~18 years, and will continue to do so for a very long
time, given that solar and orbital forcing are the main drivers, and
those are both in slowly-intensifying cooling stages.

I've got peer-reviewed studies proving that CO2 causes global cooling
and can explain in detail the mechanism by which it does so... one of
those studies is from NASA.

I've also got quotes from climate researchers proving they know it's
cooling... one of them (Asher Minns, from the scandal-rocked
University of East Anglia) notably mentioned that telling people to
prepare for global warming *and* an ice age could cause problems for
the climate community's credibility... you'll note he didn't state
'global cooling', he specifically said "an ice age".

Don't be a chump, you're being lied to.

-- 

Kensi the moron (aka Paul G. Derbyshire) wrote:
================================
The sphere's Gaussian curvature is 1/r^2, and its area is 4*pi*r^2, so
the curvature is 4*pi
================================

Kensi the moron (aka Paul G. Derbyshire) said the Gaussian curvature =
1 / r^2 *and* the Gaussian curvature = 4 * pi.

Therefore, 1 / r^2 = 4 * pi
Therefore, r = 0.28209479176

Kensi the moron (aka Paul G. Derbyshire) says every sphere in the
entire universe has a radius of 0.28209479176. Of course, being a
moron, kensi didn't specify the units.

The moron also said the Gaussian curvature of a sphere is dependent
upon that sphere's radius. Wholly incorrect.

Kensi the moron (aka Paul G. Derbyshire) was corrected:
================================
Did... did you just say "the Gaussian curvature = 1/r^2" *and* "the
Gaussian curvature = 4*pi" therefore "1/r^2 = 4*pi"? Now you
backpedal, LunkHead.

You mean the Gaussian curvature = 1/r^2 * (4*pi*r^2) therefore =
(4*pi), and therefore the Gaussian curvature of a sphere is
independent of r due to its symmetry, thereby proving your original
"The sphere's Gaussian curvature is 1/r^2" blather *wrong*?
================================

But Kensi the moron (aka Paul G. Derbyshire) persists in insisting
that what he wrote isn't fucked up, and that the Gaussian curvature of
a sphere *does* depend upon its radius, because he doesn't understand
the equations he's trying to use, he doesn't know the difference
between 'constant curvature' and 'Gaussian curvature', he doesn't know
what an integral is, and he's a halfwit who can't figure out even
basic geometry problems.

Now remember, this is the same moron who k'lames he's an
astrophysicist... yet he's stated that the Riemann curvature tensor
concept being the central mathematical tool in the theory of general
relativity and the modern theory of gravity, and the curvature of
space-time being described by the geodesic deviation equation, is
"science fiction" and "a howler".

In addition, the moron k'lamed that 4-D Minkowski space-time was
mostly positive Gaussian curvature, with only small areas of negative
Gaussian curvature, which proves the moron has no idea of the effects
of mass or magnetism upon the 4-D Minkowski space-time manifold.

He has k'lamed that the Gaussian curvature of the universe is
predominantly positive, which means Lunkhead believes that massive
objects such as planets, stars and black holes ride *above* the
tangential plane of the 4-D Minkowski space-time manifold, thereby
making the planes of principal curvature positive Gaussian curvature,
and thus causing gravity to *repel*. It also means LunkHead believes
the universe to be finite, and therefore it cannot be expanding.

Lunkhead the moron (aka Paul G. Derbyshire) has k'lamed that magnetism
has "*no* effect" upon the 4-D Minkowski space-time manifold, then
backpedaled and said there was a "small amount of positive curvature
due to the energy density in the field", thereby proving he doesn't
know how magnetism affects the 4-D Minkowski space-time manifold, and
denies the existence of magnetic attraction.

Thus, Kensi the moron (aka Paul G. Derbyshire) has described a
universe in which planets could not maintain their orbits, a universe
in which magnets could not work, and therefore a universe which could
not exist.

Kensi is the same moron who k'lames that snow at a colder temperature
than the surrounding atmosphere is somehow violating the First and
Second Laws of Thermodynamics and giving off "blackbody radiation".

Kensi is the same moron who k'lames that snow gives off "blackbody
radiation" at wavelengths that would put the temperature of the snow
at 489 F.

Kensi attempted to back up his kooky k'lame above by further k'laming
that snow emits at wavelengths which correspond to a variety of
temperatures, presumably from 489 F to -422 F, because the moron
doesn't understand that the Planck curve breaks down under certain
circumstances, meaning snow emits in accordance with the Wien
Displacement Law in a ~2.1251 micron window centered on the ~11-micron
infrared atmospheric window, not Planck's curve.

Kensi is the same moron who first denied the existence of the
~11-micron infrared atmospheric window, then backpedaled and k'lamed
that snow emitted outside that ~11-micron window, and was proven
wrong. Then the spankard moron tried to use the backpedal of
"blackbody radiation" being at a different wavelength than spectral
emission, yet again demonstrating that the moron has no clue how
spectral absorption and emission works.

Kensi is the same moron who k'lamed heat flows from cooler to warmer;
that in a solid, molecules are "flying-and-bouncing-around-the-place",
that heat is "stirring up the molecules" and putting the molecules on
a "somewhat different trajectory", thereby demonstrating that LunkHead
cannot even grasp such basic topics as what heat is.

Kensi is the same moron who denies the NASA SABER study proving that
CO2 is a global *cooling* gas _because_ of the ~11-micron infrared
atmospheric window.

The reality exposed by the NASA SABER study also proves the Klimate
Katastrophe Kook Anthropogenic Global Warming k'lame of CO2 being a
global warming gas is a fairy tale that violates the First and Second
Laws of Thermodynamics, thus destroying CO2-induced AGW, yet this same
moron continues to cling to his delusions.

Kensi is the same moron who continues to cling to his delusion that
global warming causes more intense hurricanes, despite three
peer-reviewed studies proving the exact opposite.

Kensi is not an astrophysicist, he's far too stupid to be. He's just a
lumpy dumpy frumpy slumpy shroomtard loser trying to pretend that he's
intelligent... and failing badly.

That would be because Kensi is a moron with an underpowered brain that
struggles (and fails) to understand reality. Kensi the moron is Paul
G. Derbyshire.

Paul G. Derbyshire
9 Bennett St
Pembroke, Ontario, Canada K8A 3Y6
(613) 732-3590
twisted0n3@gmail.com

From	"reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com>
Date	2016-08-03 14:03 -0700
Message-ID	<e08436ad-79b4-46c1-98d4-ee7090ec6d8f@googlegroups.com>
In reply to	#591739

From	jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com
Date	2016-08-03 21:49 +0000
Message-ID	<0g5a7d-nm8.ln1@mail.specsol.com>
In reply to	#591770

From	noTthaTguY <abu.kuanysh05@gmail.com>
Date	2016-08-04 12:33 -0700
Subject	also, Antarctican peninsulA
Message-ID	<b4a9de9a-5c9e-4a23-b676-64409f69921b@googlegroups.com>
In reply to	#591779

From	benj <benj@nobody.net>
Date	2016-08-06 19:17 -0400
Message-ID	<57a67021$0$1664$c3e8da3$12bcf670@news.astraweb.com>
In reply to	#592127

From	The Starmaker <starmaker@ix.netcom.com>
Date	2016-08-02 13:16 -0700
Message-ID	<57A0FF8A.2E01@ix.netcom.com>
In reply to	#591590

99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record

Contents

#591590 — 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record

#591606

#591611

#591731

#591739

#591770

#591779

#591898 — also, Antarctican peninsulA

#592127

#592142

#592143

#591679

#591695 — m, the bell rings like this

#594599

#594691

#594699

#594789

#594798

#595714

#595720