99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record

From	Sergio <invalid@invalid.com>
Newsgroups	sci.physics
Subject	99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record
Date	2016-08-01 23:40 -0500
Organization	Aioe.org NNTP Server
Message-ID	<nnp87s$nbg$1@gioia.aioe.org> (permalink)

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http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/99-percent-chance-2016-will-be-the-hottest-year-on-record/

Odds are increasing that 2016 will be the hottest year on the books, as
April continued a remarkable streak of record-warm months.

Last month was rated as the warmest April on record by both NASA and the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which released their
data this week. In the temperature annals kept by NOAA, it marked the
12th record warmest month in a row.

Global temperatures have been hovering around 1.5°C (2.7°F) above
pre-industrial averages—a threshold that’s being considered by
international negotiators as a new goal for limiting warming.

While an exceptionally strong El Niño has provided a boost to
temperatures in recent months, the primary driver has been the heat that
has built up from decades of unabated greenhouse gas emissions.

How global temperatures have differed from average so far this year.
Credit: NOAA
Nearing 1.5°C

NOAA announced its temperature data for April on Wednesday, with the
month measuring 1.98°F (1.1°C) above the 20th century average of 56.7°F
(13.7°C). It was warmer than the previous record-hot April of 2010 by
0.5°F (0.3°C).

NASA’s data showed the month was about the same amount above the average
from 1951-1980. The two agencies use different baselines and process the
global temperature data slightly differently, leading to potential
differences in the exact temperatures anomalies for each month and year.

Both agencies’ records show that global temperatures have come down
slightly from the peaks they hit in February and March, which ranked as
the most anomalously warm months by NASA and NOAA, respectively.

Climate Central has reanalyzed the temperature data from recent months,
averaging the NASA and NOAA numbers and comparing it to the average from
1881-1910 to show how much temperatures have risen from a period closer
to preindustrial times.

The analysis shows that the year-to-date temperature through April is
1.45°C above the average from that period. Governments have agreed to
limit warming this century to less than 2°C from pre-industrial times
and are exploring setting an even more ambitious goal of 1.5°C, which
temperatures are currently close to.

A year-to-date look at 2016 global temperatures compared to recent years.
Click image to enlarge.

“The fact that we are beginning to cross key thresholds at the monthly
timescale is indeed an indication of how close we are getting to
permanently exceeding those thresholds,” Michael Mann, a climate
scientist at Penn State, said in an email.

It will take a significant effort to further limit emissions of carbon
dioxide and other heat-trapping gases to realize those goals, experts
say. Carbon dioxide levels at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii are
already poised to stay above 400 parts per million year-round. They have
risen from a pre-industrial level of 280 ppm and from 315 ppm just since
the mid-20th century.
Hottest Year?

As El Niño continues to rapidly decay, monthly temperature anomalies are
slowly declining. They are still considerably higher than they were just
last year, the current title-holder for the hottest year on record.

Given the head start this year has over last, there is a more than 99
percent chance that 2016 will best 2015 as the hottest year on the
books, according to Gavin Schmidt, head of NASA’s Goddard Institute for
Space Studies, which keeps the agencies temperature data.

If 2016 does set the mark, it will be the third record-setting year in a
row.

It is likely, though, that the streak would end with this year, as a La
Niña event is looking increasingly likely to follow El Niño, and it
tends to have a cooling effect on global temperatures.

But even La Niña years today are warmer than El Niño years of previous
decades—a clear sign of how much human caused-warming has increased
global temperatures. In fact, the planet hasn’t seen a record cold year
since 1911.

This article is reproduced with permission from Climate Central. The
article was first published on May 18, 2016.

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99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record Sergio <invalid@invalid.com> - 2016-08-01 23:40 -0500
  Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record "Friendly Neighborhood Vote Wrangler Emeritus, DoW #1" <FNVWe@altusenetkooks.xxx> - 2016-08-02 07:17 +0200
    Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record "Friendly Neighborhood Vote Wrangler Emeritus, DoW #1" <FNVWe@altusenetkooks.xxx> - 2016-08-02 08:39 +0200
      Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record "Friendly Neighborhood Vote Wrangler Emeritus, DoW #1" <FNVWe@altusenetkooks.xxx> - 2016-08-03 07:28 +0200
        Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record "Friendly Neighborhood Vote Wrangler Emeritus, DoW #1" <FNVWe@altusenetkooks.xxx> - 2016-08-03 08:14 +0200
          Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2016-08-03 14:03 -0700
            Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-08-03 21:49 +0000
              also, Antarctican peninsulA noTthaTguY <abu.kuanysh05@gmail.com> - 2016-08-04 12:33 -0700
            Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2016-08-06 14:16 -0700
              Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record benj <benj@nobody.net> - 2016-08-06 19:17 -0400
              Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record benj <benj@nobody.net> - 2016-08-06 19:19 -0400
  Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record The Starmaker <starmaker@ix.netcom.com> - 2016-08-02 13:16 -0700
    m, the bell rings like this noTthaTguY <abu.kuanysh05@gmail.com> - 2016-08-02 16:00 -0700
  Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record Sergio <invalid@invalid.com> - 2016-08-24 21:05 -0500
  Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2016-08-25 13:20 -0700
    Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-08-25 21:17 +0000
      Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2016-08-26 12:12 -0700
        Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-08-26 19:41 +0000
          Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2016-09-03 14:20 -0700
            Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-09-03 21:55 +0000
        Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record "hanson" <hanson@quick.net> - 2016-08-26 13:46 -0700
    Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record "hanson" <hanson@quick.net> - 2016-08-25 16:17 -0700
  Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record James McGinn <jimmcginn9@gmail.com> - 2016-09-03 10:43 -0700
    Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2016-09-03 14:29 -0700
      Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-09-03 21:57 +0000
        Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2016-09-03 15:49 -0700
          Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record "hanson" <hanson@quick.net> - 2016-09-03 17:31 -0700
        Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2016-09-04 10:30 -0700
          Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-09-04 18:48 +0000
            Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2016-09-19 13:53 -0700
              Re: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-09-19 21:24 +0000

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