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Re: The Lisp Curse

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* Dmitry A. Kazakov, on 02.07.2011 15:30:
> On Sat, 02 Jul 2011 12:23:35 +0200, Alf P. Steinbach /Usenet wrote:
>
>> * Dmitry A. Kazakov, on 02.07.2011 09:49:
>>> On Sat, 02 Jul 2011 00:32:56 +0200, Alf P. Steinbach /Usenet wrote:
>>>
>>>> On the other hand, computing power is necessary for intelligence, because it's
>>>> necessary for quickly performing large associative searches (like set
>>>> intersections) in an extremely large model of the external world.
>>>>
>>>> Just to get an idea of what that means, put down a hypothesis of each neuron
>>>> communicating 100 bytes per second on average. I dunno, perhaps it's just 1, it
>>>> doesn't matter much. Assume, like, 1 trillion neurons in your brain. Then,
>>>> what's going on there, is like 100 trillion bytes, or 10^11 bytes, being sent
>>>> around per second. So for your PC you need a bus with that capacity, but as of
>>>> 2011 your PC's bus doesn't shuffle hundreds of trillions of bytes per second;
>>>> it's more like just hundreds of millions... That's the VON NEUMANN BOTTLENECK,
>>>> the result of extreme centralization: currently a factor of 1 million short.
>>>>
>>>> And that translates to at least some years, probably a decade or two.
>>>
>>> I would not be so sure.
>>
>> As I read this you mean "I would not be so sure that AI will be achieved in a
>> decade or two".
>>
>> If that's what you mean then that's profoundly silly, arguing against an idiot's
>> position that nobody's argued for.
>>
>> But if you mean that you're not so sure that it will take that long, then why?
>
> I meant that so long nobody knows what the intelligence algorithmically is.
> In this context estimations of necessary power are meaningless. It is like
> an alchemist guessing how much wood he would need to heat the cauldron in
> order to produce one ounce of gold.

Oh, I wouldn't have guessed that meaning, it's too meaningless to me, sorry.

Probably, as seen from my perspective, the insight that you're lacking is that 
many aspects of intelligence are well understood, and that one such aspect is 
the need for a large, detailed model of the world (where "world" means whatever 
environment that the intelligence interacts with), a model that supports almost 
instant association actions and (possibly vague) set intersection.

You can compare this to, not alchemist as you mentioned (which has the wrong 
kind of connotations) but  --  scientific or engineering-like chemists. Your 
task as a fumbling beginner engineering chemist is to produce hydrogen from 
water. You have no idea how to do that, but even though you're pretty clueless 
about the process you're able to calculate that you will need *at least* as many 
kilograms of water as the number of kilograms of hydrogen to produce.

This will under-estimate the amount of water that you need, severely.

But it isn't an estimate that tells you how much is sufficient: it only tells 
you that that amount, at the very least, is required, and its valid and it's 
entirely correct, for you do need at least that much water.


>> The fly's nervous system reportedly has only millions of neurons, but still
>> seems to be "smarter and more complicated than any computer built so far",
>> according to Ann-Shynn Chiang of the National Tsing Hua University in Taiwan,
>> who did some breaktrough work on mapping a fly brain's neural net, published
>> this February[1].
>
> [...]
>
>> [1]<url: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/12/101202124108.htm>
>
> Yes, I remember the publication of 2006 the page refers to.

I'm impressed, I don't see any reference to 2006.

The journal reference of the original research:
[
Ann-Shyn Chiang, Chih-Yung Lin, Chao-Chun Chuang, Hsiu-Ming Chang, Chang-Huain 
Hsieh, Chang-Wei Yeh, Chi-Tin Shih, Jian-Jheng Wu, Guo-Tzau Wang, Yung-Chang 
Chen et al.
Three-Dimensional Reconstruction of Brain-wide Wiring Networks in Drosophila at 
Single-Cell Resolution.
Current Biology, December 2, 2010 DOI: 10.1016/j.cub.2010.11.056
]

It says "December 2, 2010", but perhaps based on earlier work that you remember?


> Stimulating a
> fly with 100% controlled input and comparing its behavior with the models
> looks a productive approach.

I agree with your idea for one productive approach, I think that would be good 
and necessary. Another approach, that might be also employed, might be to 
computationally evolve the model based on how the model fares in some virtual 
environment (that might ultimately be replaced with robot). This way it could 
possibly be evolved forward much faster, e.g. with many sims in parallel. And 
perhaps equally important, as opposed to the Reality comparision, it might be 
possible to evolve smaller parts of the model independently, at least some part 
of the way. Which might make the difference between publishing in one's own life 
or after. ;-)


Cheers,

- Alf

-- 
blog at <url: http://alfps.wordpress.com>

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Re: The Lisp Curse Mentifex <mentifex@myuw.net> - 2011-06-29 15:41 -0700
  Re: The Lisp Curse "Fuschia, President-Elect of the Bright Purplish-Green Council" <fp-eotbp-gc@ibm.com> - 2011-06-29 19:16 -0400
  Re: The Lisp Curse "Dmitry A. Kazakov" <mailbox@dmitry-kazakov.de> - 2011-06-30 09:47 +0200
    Re: The Lisp Curse BGB <cr88192@hotmail.com> - 2011-06-30 02:27 -0700
      Re: The Lisp Curse "Dmitry A. Kazakov" <mailbox@dmitry-kazakov.de> - 2011-06-30 14:28 +0200
        Re: The Lisp Curse BGB <cr88192@hotmail.com> - 2011-06-30 14:06 -0700
          Re: The Lisp Curse "Dmitry A. Kazakov" <mailbox@dmitry-kazakov.de> - 2011-07-01 23:25 +0200
            Re: The Lisp Curse "Alf P. Steinbach /Usenet" <alf.p.steinbach+usenet@gmail.com> - 2011-07-02 00:32 +0200
              Re: The Lisp Curse "Dmitry A. Kazakov" <mailbox@dmitry-kazakov.de> - 2011-07-02 09:49 +0200
                Re: The Lisp Curse "Alf P. Steinbach /Usenet" <alf.p.steinbach+usenet@gmail.com> - 2011-07-02 12:23 +0200
                Re: The Lisp Curse "Dmitry A. Kazakov" <mailbox@dmitry-kazakov.de> - 2011-07-02 15:30 +0200
                Re: The Lisp Curse "Alf P. Steinbach /Usenet" <alf.p.steinbach+usenet@gmail.com> - 2011-07-02 17:06 +0200
                Re: The Lisp Curse "Dmitry A. Kazakov" <mailbox@dmitry-kazakov.de> - 2011-07-02 18:09 +0200
                Re: The Lisp Curse James Waldby <not@valid.invalid> - 2011-07-02 17:23 +0000
                Re: The Lisp Curse "Dmitry A. Kazakov" <mailbox@dmitry-kazakov.de> - 2011-07-02 20:50 +0200
                Re: The Lisp Curse luser droog <mijoryx@yahoo.com> - 2011-07-17 22:14 -0700
                Re: The Lisp Curse Ben Bacarisse <ben.usenet@bsb.me.uk> - 2011-07-18 14:10 +0100
                Re: The Lisp Curse Willem <willem@toad.stack.nl> - 2011-07-18 14:13 +0000
                Re: The Lisp Curse Ben Bacarisse <ben.usenet@bsb.me.uk> - 2011-07-18 16:18 +0100
                Re: The Lisp Curse "Alf P. Steinbach /Usenet" <alf.p.steinbach+usenet@gmail.com> - 2011-07-02 19:47 +0200
                Re: The Lisp Curse "Dmitry A. Kazakov" <mailbox@dmitry-kazakov.de> - 2011-07-02 20:56 +0200
                Re: The Lisp Curse "Alf P. Steinbach /Usenet" <alf.p.steinbach+usenet@gmail.com> - 2011-07-02 23:01 +0200
                Re: The Lisp Curse "Dmitry A. Kazakov" <mailbox@dmitry-kazakov.de> - 2011-07-03 10:45 +0200
                Re: The Lisp Curse BGB <cr88192@hotmail.com> - 2011-07-02 10:00 -0700
                Re: The Lisp Curse luser droog <mijoryx@yahoo.com> - 2011-07-17 04:09 -0700
                Re: The Lisp Curse "James" <no@spam.invalid> - 2011-07-03 12:06 -0700
            Re: The Lisp Curse BGB <cr88192@hotmail.com> - 2011-07-01 21:22 -0700
              Re: The Lisp Curse "Dmitry A. Kazakov" <mailbox@dmitry-kazakov.de> - 2011-07-02 09:47 +0200
                Re: The Lisp Curse BGB <cr88192@hotmail.com> - 2011-07-02 02:10 -0700
                Re: The Lisp Curse "Dmitry A. Kazakov" <mailbox@dmitry-kazakov.de> - 2011-07-02 15:29 +0200
                Re: The Lisp Curse BGB <cr88192@hotmail.com> - 2011-07-02 10:03 -0700
                Re: The Lisp Curse "Dmitry A. Kazakov" <mailbox@dmitry-kazakov.de> - 2011-07-02 20:47 +0200
                Re: The Lisp Curse BGB <cr88192@hotmail.com> - 2011-07-02 20:29 -0700
                Re: The Lisp Curse "Dmitry A. Kazakov" <mailbox@dmitry-kazakov.de> - 2011-07-03 10:53 +0200
                Re: The Lisp Curse tm <thomas.mertes@gmx.at> - 2011-07-03 23:42 -0700
        Re: The Lisp Curse Fritz Wuehler <fritz@spamexpire-201107.rodent.frell.theremailer.net> - 2011-07-03 14:40 +0200

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