Groups | Search | Server Info | Keyboard shortcuts | Login | Register [http] [https] [nntp] [nntps]

Groups > sci.physics > #557045 > unrolled thread

For weather forecasting, precise observations matter more than butterflies. Researchers find that minimizing initial errors on scales around 100km is more likely to extend the accuracy of forecasts at lead times longer than 3–4 hours than efforts to minimize initial errors on much smaller scales

Back to article view | Back to sci.physics

Contents

  For weather forecasting, precise observations matter more than butterflies. Researchers find that minimizing initial errors on scales around 100km is more likely to extend the accuracy of forecasts at lead times longer than 3–4 hours than efforts to minimize initial errors on much smaller scales Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2016-02-26 16:35 -0600
    Re: For weather forecasting, precise observations matter more than butterflies. Researchers find that minimizing initial errors on scales around 100km is more likely to extend the accuracy of forecasts at lead times longer than 3–4 hours than efforts to minimize initial errors on much smaller scales jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-02-26 22:55 +0000
    Re: For weather forecasting, precise observations matter more than butterflies. Researchers find that minimizing initial errors on scales around 100km is more likely to extend the accuracy of forecasts at lead times longer than 3-4 hours than efforts noTthaTguY <abu.kuanysh05@gmail.com> - 2016-02-26 16:52 -0800
      Re: For weather forecasting, precise observations matter more than butterflies. Researchers find that minimizing initial errors on scales around 100km is more likely to extend the accuracy of forecasts at lead times longer than 3-4 hours than efforts "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2016-02-27 13:05 -0800
        Re: For weather forecasting, precise observations matter more than butterflies. Researchers find that minimizing initial errors on scales around 100km is more likely to extend the accuracy of forecasts at lead times longer than 3-4 hours than efforts noTthaTguY <abu.kuanysh05@gmail.com> - 2016-02-27 16:39 -0800
    Re: For weather forecasting, precise observations matter more than butterflies. Researchers find that minimizing initial errors on scales around 100km is more likely to extend the accuracy of forecasts at lead times longer than 3-4 hours than efforts "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2016-02-27 13:06 -0800

#557045 — For weather forecasting, precise observations matter more than butterflies. Researchers find that minimizing initial errors on scales around 100km is more likely to extend the accuracy of forecasts at lead times longer than 3–4 hours than efforts to minimize initial errors on much smaller scales

For weather forecasting, precise observations matter more than 
butterflies. Researchers find that minimizing initial errors on scales 
around 100km is more likely to extend the accuracy of forecasts at lead 
times longer than 3–4 hours than efforts to minimize initial errors on 
much smaller scales
> http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/thunderstorms-dont-get-butterflies.html


> Abstract
>
> One important limitation on the accuracy of weather forecasts is
> imposed by unavoidable errors in the specification of the
> atmosphere’s initial state. Much theoretical concern has been focused
> on the limits to predictability imposed by small-scale errors,
> potentially even those on the scale of a butterfly. Very modest
> errors at much larger scales may nevertheless pose a more important
> practical limitation. We demonstrate the importance of large-scale
> uncertainty by analyzing ensembles of idealized squall-line
> simulations. Our results imply that minimizing initial errors on
> scales around 100 km is more likely to extend the accuracy of
> forecasts at lead times longer than 3–4 hours than efforts to
> minimize initial errors on much smaller scales. These simulations
> also demonstrate that squall lines, triggered in a horizontally
> homogeneous environment with no initial background circulations, can
> generate a background mesoscale kinetic energy spectrum roughly
> similar to that observed in the atmosphere.
>
> Citations
>
> Thunderstorms Don’t Get Butterflies by Dale R. Durran and Jonathan A.
> Weyn published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
> doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00070.1

-- 

sci.physics is an unmoderated newsgroup dedicated
to the discussion of physics, news from the physics
community, and physics-related social issues.

[toc] | [next] | [standalone]

#557053

Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> wrote:
> For weather forecasting, precise observations matter more than 
> butterflies.

Puerile.


>> One important limitation on the accuracy of weather forecasts is
>> imposed by unavoidable errors in the specification of the
>> atmosphere?s initial state.

You mean what it is right now?

If the claims of a global average temperature to hundredths of a degree
were true, this should be trivial.


-- 
Jim Pennino

[toc] | [prev] | [next] | [standalone]

#557099 — Re: For weather forecasting, precise observations matter more than butterflies. Researchers find that minimizing initial errors on scales around 100km is more likely to extend the accuracy of forecasts at lead times longer than 3-4 hours than efforts

well, Squally, there is more than one butterfly

> > simulations. Our results imply that minimizing initial errors on
> > scales around 100 km is more likely to extend the accuracy of
> > forecasts at lead times longer than 3-4 hours than efforts to
> > minimize initial errors on much smaller scales. These simulations
> > also demonstrate that squall lines, triggered in a horizontally
> > homogeneous environment with no initial background circulations, can
> > generate a background mesoscale kinetic energy spectrum roughly
> > similar to that observed in the atmosphere.
> >
> > Citations
> >
> > Thunderstorms Don't Get Butterflies by Dale R. Durran and Jonathan A.
> > Weyn published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
> > doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00070.1
> 
> -- 
> 
> sci.physics is an unmoderated newsgroup dedicated
> to the discussion of physics, news from the physics
> community, and physics-related social issues.

[toc] | [prev] | [next] | [standalone]

#557346 — Re: For weather forecasting, precise observations matter more than butterflies. Researchers find that minimizing initial errors on scales around 100km is more likely to extend the accuracy of forecasts at lead times longer than 3-4 hours than efforts

On Friday, February 26, 2016 at 4:52:05 PM UTC-8, noTthaTguY wrote:
> well, Squally, there is more than one butterfly
> 
> > > simulations. Our results imply that minimizing initial errors on
> > > scales around 100 km is more likely to extend the accuracy of
> > > forecasts at lead times longer than 3-4 hours than efforts to
> > > minimize initial errors on much smaller scales. These simulations
> > > also demonstrate that squall lines, triggered in a horizontally
> > > homogeneous environment with no initial background circulations, can
> > > generate a background mesoscale kinetic energy spectrum roughly
> > > similar to that observed in the atmosphere.
> > >
> > > Citations
> > >
> > > Thunderstorms Don't Get Butterflies by Dale R. Durran and Jonathan A.
> > > Weyn published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
> > > doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00070.1
> > 
> > -- 
> > 
> > sci.physics is an unmoderated newsgroup dedicated
> > to the discussion of physics, news from the physics
> > community, and physics-related social issues.
When you can see halve of the universe all at once you have no problem seeing the weather. Chicago makes this reality.TreBert

[toc] | [prev] | [next] | [standalone]

#557423 — Re: For weather forecasting, precise observations matter more than butterflies. Researchers find that minimizing initial errors on scales around 100km is more likely to extend the accuracy of forecasts at lead times longer than 3-4 hours than efforts

how much of Universe can be seen,
one mile over sealevel

> When you can see halve of the universe all at once you have no problem seeing the weather. Chicago makes this reality.TreBert

[toc] | [prev] | [next] | [standalone]

#557347 — Re: For weather forecasting, precise observations matter more than butterflies. Researchers find that minimizing initial errors on scales around 100km is more likely to extend the accuracy of forecasts at lead times longer than 3-4 hours than efforts

On Friday, February 26, 2016 at 2:35:26 PM UTC-8, Sam Wormley wrote:
> For weather forecasting, precise observations matter more than 
> butterflies. Researchers find that minimizing initial errors on scales 
> around 100km is more likely to extend the accuracy of forecasts at lead 
> times longer than 3-4 hours than efforts to minimize initial errors on 
> much smaller scales
> > http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/thunderstorms-dont-get-butterflies.html
> 
> 
> > Abstract
> >
> > One important limitation on the accuracy of weather forecasts is
> > imposed by unavoidable errors in the specification of the
> > atmosphere's initial state. Much theoretical concern has been focused
> > on the limits to predictability imposed by small-scale errors,
> > potentially even those on the scale of a butterfly. Very modest
> > errors at much larger scales may nevertheless pose a more important
> > practical limitation. We demonstrate the importance of large-scale
> > uncertainty by analyzing ensembles of idealized squall-line
> > simulations. Our results imply that minimizing initial errors on
> > scales around 100 km is more likely to extend the accuracy of
> > forecasts at lead times longer than 3-4 hours than efforts to
> > minimize initial errors on much smaller scales. These simulations
> > also demonstrate that squall lines, triggered in a horizontally
> > homogeneous environment with no initial background circulations, can
> > generate a background mesoscale kinetic energy spectrum roughly
> > similar to that observed in the atmosphere.
> >
> > Citations
> >
> > Thunderstorms Don't Get Butterflies by Dale R. Durran and Jonathan A.
> > Weyn published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
> > doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00070.1
> 
> -- 
> 
> sci.physics is an unmoderated newsgroup dedicated
> to the discussion of physics, news from the physics
> community, and physics-related social issues.

[toc] | [prev] | [standalone]

Back to top | Article view | sci.physics

csiph-web