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For weather forecasting, precise observations matter more than butterflies. Researchers find that minimizing initial errors on scales around 100km is more likely to extend the accuracy of forecasts at lead times longer than 3–4 hours than efforts to minimize initial errors on much smaller scales

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For weather forecasting, precise observations matter more than 
butterflies. Researchers find that minimizing initial errors on scales 
around 100km is more likely to extend the accuracy of forecasts at lead 
times longer than 3–4 hours than efforts to minimize initial errors on 
much smaller scales
> http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/thunderstorms-dont-get-butterflies.html


> Abstract
>
> One important limitation on the accuracy of weather forecasts is
> imposed by unavoidable errors in the specification of the
> atmosphere’s initial state. Much theoretical concern has been focused
> on the limits to predictability imposed by small-scale errors,
> potentially even those on the scale of a butterfly. Very modest
> errors at much larger scales may nevertheless pose a more important
> practical limitation. We demonstrate the importance of large-scale
> uncertainty by analyzing ensembles of idealized squall-line
> simulations. Our results imply that minimizing initial errors on
> scales around 100 km is more likely to extend the accuracy of
> forecasts at lead times longer than 3–4 hours than efforts to
> minimize initial errors on much smaller scales. These simulations
> also demonstrate that squall lines, triggered in a horizontally
> homogeneous environment with no initial background circulations, can
> generate a background mesoscale kinetic energy spectrum roughly
> similar to that observed in the atmosphere.
>
> Citations
>
> Thunderstorms Don’t Get Butterflies by Dale R. Durran and Jonathan A.
> Weyn published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
> doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00070.1

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For weather forecasting, precise observations matter more than butterflies. Researchers find that minimizing initial errors on scales around 100km is more likely to extend the accuracy of forecasts at lead times longer than 3–4 hours than efforts to minimize initial errors on much smaller scales Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2016-02-26 16:35 -0600
  Re: For weather forecasting, precise observations matter more than butterflies. Researchers find that minimizing initial errors on scales around 100km is more likely to extend the accuracy of forecasts at lead times longer than 3–4 hours than efforts to minimize initial errors on much smaller scales jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-02-26 22:55 +0000
  Re: For weather forecasting, precise observations matter more than butterflies. Researchers find that minimizing initial errors on scales around 100km is more likely to extend the accuracy of forecasts at lead times longer than 3-4 hours than efforts noTthaTguY <abu.kuanysh05@gmail.com> - 2016-02-26 16:52 -0800
    Re: For weather forecasting, precise observations matter more than butterflies. Researchers find that minimizing initial errors on scales around 100km is more likely to extend the accuracy of forecasts at lead times longer than 3-4 hours than efforts "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2016-02-27 13:05 -0800
      Re: For weather forecasting, precise observations matter more than butterflies. Researchers find that minimizing initial errors on scales around 100km is more likely to extend the accuracy of forecasts at lead times longer than 3-4 hours than efforts noTthaTguY <abu.kuanysh05@gmail.com> - 2016-02-27 16:39 -0800
  Re: For weather forecasting, precise observations matter more than butterflies. Researchers find that minimizing initial errors on scales around 100km is more likely to extend the accuracy of forecasts at lead times longer than 3-4 hours than efforts "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2016-02-27 13:06 -0800

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