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New Study Narrows Gap Between Models And Reality

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  New Study Narrows Gap Between Models And Reality Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-08-03 08:52 -0500
    Re: New Study Narrows Gap Between Models And Reality gilber34 <invalid@invalid.com> - 2015-08-03 10:10 -0500
    Re: New Study Narrows Gap Between Models And Reality "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2015-08-03 09:58 -0700
      Re: New Study Narrows Gap Between Models And Reality Double-A <double-a3@hush.com> - 2015-08-03 10:56 -0700
      Re: New Study Narrows Gap Between Models And Reality HVAC <Mr.HVAC@gmail.com> - 2015-08-03 14:55 -0400
        Re: New Study Narrows Gap Between Models And Reality "hanson" <hanson@quick.net> - 2015-08-03 13:52 -0700
    Re: New Study Narrows Gap Between Models And Reality jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2015-08-03 18:03 +0000

#510936 — New Study Narrows Gap Between Models And Reality

New Study Narrows Gap Between Models And Reality
> http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/new-study-narrows-gap-between-models-and-reality.html



> A new study led by a University of York scientist addresses an
> important question in climate science: how accurate are climate model
> projections? If temperature calculations for models are brought into
> line with the way temperatures are calculated in the real world then
> models and reality are brought closer together

> Abstract
>
> The level of agreement between climate model simulations and observed
> surface temperature change is a topic of scientific and policy
> concern. While the Earth system continues to accumulate energy due to
> anthropogenic and other radiative forcings, estimates of recent
> surface temperature evolution fall at the lower end of climate model
> projections. Global mean temperatures from climate model simulations
> are typically calculated using surface air temperatures, while the
> corresponding observations are based on a blend of air and sea
> surface temperatures. This work quantifies a systematic bias in
> model-observation comparisons arising from differential warming rates
> between sea surface temperatures and surface air temperatures over
> oceans. A further bias arises from the treatment of temperatures in
> regions where the sea ice boundary has changed. Applying the
> methodology of the HadCRUT4 record to climate model temperature
> fields accounts for 38% of the discrepancy in trend between models
> and observations over the period 1975-2014.
>
> Citation
>
> Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended
> land air and ocean sea surface temperatures by Kevin Cowtan, Zeke
> Hausfather, Ed Hawkins, Peter Jacobs, Michael E. Mann, Sonya K.
> Miller, Byron A. Steinman, Martin B. Stolpe and Robert G. Way,
> published in Geophysical Research Letters, 2015; DOI:
> 10.1002/2015GL064888
>


-- 

sci.physics is an unmoderated newsgroup dedicated
to the discussion of physics, news from the physics
community, and physics-related social issues.

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#510948

On 8/3/2015 8:52 AM, Sam Wormley wrote:
> New Study Narrows Gap Between Models And Reality

>
>> Abstract
>>
>> The *level of agreement* between climate *model* *simulations* and observed
>> *surface temperature change* is a topic of scientific and policy
>> concern. While the Earth system continues to *accumulate* energy due to
>> anthropogenic and *other* *radiative forcings*, *estimates* of recent
>> surface temperature *evolution* fall at the lower end of climate model
>> *projections*. Global mean temperatures from climate *model* *simulations*
>> are typically calculated using *surface air temperatures*, while the
>> corresponding *observations* are based on a *blend* of air and sea
>> surface temperatures.

*weasel words*  not quantifiable, conjecture, judgemental, or not real

First Big Problem: they are using *surface air temperatures*. the mass 
difference between air and water/ground is 1,000 to 1.

Second Big Problem: The Models are Wrong. Real measurements blow them 
out of the water.

Third Big Problem: less than 0.1% of the earth surface is "measured", 
the rest of the data is "filled in" which is "guessed at", which leaves 
99.90 %  of the data is NOT MEASURED.

Fourth Big Problem:  at best they use averaged daily temperatures, 
disregarding the daily varance of (10 to 40 C), at worst they use yearly 
averaged temperatures and ignore the huge varance (30 to 70 C), then 
they average it all, and use that average to project future,  ignoreing 
the HUGE noise varance of already double and tripple averaged temperatures.

Conclusion:   "If you find a cockroach in a bowl of spaghetti, you don't 
look for another cockroach before you throw out the whole bowl of 
spaghetti."  --Dr Henry Lee, @ OJ Simpson trial

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#510979

On Monday, August 3, 2015 at 6:52:47 AM UTC-7, Sam Wormley wrote:
> New Study Narrows Gap Between Models And Reality
> > http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/new-study-narrows-gap-between-models-and-reality.html
> 
> 
> 
> > A new study led by a University of York scientist addresses an
> > important question in climate science: how accurate are climate model
> > projections? If temperature calculations for models are brought into
> > line with the way temperatures are calculated in the real world then
> > models and reality are brought closer together
> 
> > Abstract
> >
> > The level of agreement between climate model simulations and observed
> > surface temperature change is a topic of scientific and policy
> > concern. While the Earth system continues to accumulate energy due to
> > anthropogenic and other radiative forcings, estimates of recent
> > surface temperature evolution fall at the lower end of climate model
> > projections. Global mean temperatures from climate model simulations
> > are typically calculated using surface air temperatures, while the
> > corresponding observations are based on a blend of air and sea
> > surface temperatures. This work quantifies a systematic bias in
> > model-observation comparisons arising from differential warming rates
> > between sea surface temperatures and surface air temperatures over
> > oceans. A further bias arises from the treatment of temperatures in
> > regions where the sea ice boundary has changed. Applying the
> > methodology of the HadCRUT4 record to climate model temperature
> > fields accounts for 38% of the discrepancy in trend between models
> > and observations over the period 1975-2014.
> >
> > Citation
> >
> > Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended
> > land air and ocean sea surface temperatures by Kevin Cowtan, Zeke
> > Hausfather, Ed Hawkins, Peter Jacobs, Michael E. Mann, Sonya K.
> > Miller, Byron A. Steinman, Martin B. Stolpe and Robert G. Way,
> > published in Geophysical Research Letters, 2015; DOI:
> > 10.1002/2015GL064888
> >
> 
> 
> -- 
> 
> sci.physics is an unmoderated newsgroup dedicated
> to the discussion of physics, news from the physics
> community, and physics-related social issues.

Global warming #1 is ocean temp.going #2 heavy air. #3 ice melting #4 ocean level going up. TreBert

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#511000

On Monday, August 3, 2015 at 9:59:01 AM UTC-7, reber g=emc^2 wrote:
> On Monday, August 3, 2015 at 6:52:47 AM UTC-7, Sam Wormley wrote:
> > New Study Narrows Gap Between Models And Reality
> > > http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/new-study-narrows-gap-between-models-and-reality.html
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > > A new study led by a University of York scientist addresses an
> > > important question in climate science: how accurate are climate model
> > > projections? If temperature calculations for models are brought into
> > > line with the way temperatures are calculated in the real world then
> > > models and reality are brought closer together
> > 
> > > Abstract
> > >
> > > The level of agreement between climate model simulations and observed
> > > surface temperature change is a topic of scientific and policy
> > > concern. While the Earth system continues to accumulate energy due to
> > > anthropogenic and other radiative forcings, estimates of recent
> > > surface temperature evolution fall at the lower end of climate model
> > > projections. Global mean temperatures from climate model simulations
> > > are typically calculated using surface air temperatures, while the
> > > corresponding observations are based on a blend of air and sea
> > > surface temperatures. This work quantifies a systematic bias in
> > > model-observation comparisons arising from differential warming rates
> > > between sea surface temperatures and surface air temperatures over
> > > oceans. A further bias arises from the treatment of temperatures in
> > > regions where the sea ice boundary has changed. Applying the
> > > methodology of the HadCRUT4 record to climate model temperature
> > > fields accounts for 38% of the discrepancy in trend between models
> > > and observations over the period 1975-2014.
> > >
> > > Citation
> > >
> > > Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended
> > > land air and ocean sea surface temperatures by Kevin Cowtan, Zeke
> > > Hausfather, Ed Hawkins, Peter Jacobs, Michael E. Mann, Sonya K.
> > > Miller, Byron A. Steinman, Martin B. Stolpe and Robert G. Way,
> > > published in Geophysical Research Letters, 2015; DOI:
> > > 10.1002/2015GL064888
> > >
> > 
> > 
> > -- 
> > 
> > sci.physics is an unmoderated newsgroup dedicated
> > to the discussion of physics, news from the physics
> > community, and physics-related social issues.
> 
> Global warming #1 is ocean temp.going #2 heavy air. #3 ice melting #4 ocean level going up. TreBert


You will global warming is a reality when you see pigmies migrating north!

Double-A

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#511031

On 8/3/2015 12:58 PM, reber g=emc^2 wrote:
>
> Global warming #1 is ocean temp.going #2 heavy air. #3 ice melting #4 ocean level going up. TreBert


Bert, just shut the fuck up



-- 
Cut off one head, two more shall take its place.
HAIL HYDRA!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZcG5UOY224

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#511050

"HVAC" <Mr.HVAC@gmail.com> wrote in message 
news:mpodbg$2rl$2@dont-email.me...
> On 8/3/2015 12:58 PM, reber g=emc^2 wrote:
>>
>> Global warming #1 is ocean temp.going #2 heavy air. #3 ice melting #4 
>> ocean level going up. TreBert
>
>
> Bert, just shut the fuck up
>
>
Better. Administer <http://tinyurl.com/G-EMC2-Recall-Therapy>
to <http://tinyurl.com/Swine-Glazier>.


> -- 
> Cut off one head, two more shall take its place.
> HAIL HYDRA!
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZcG5UOY224 

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#511012

Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> wrote:
> New Study Narrows Gap Between Models And Reality

How can there be anything new if it is all settled, shit for brains?


-- 
Jim Pennino

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