Groups | Search | Server Info | Keyboard shortcuts | Login | Register [http] [https] [nntp] [nntps]
| From | Keith Thompson <kst-u@mib.org> |
|---|---|
| Newsgroups | comp.lang.c |
| Subject | Re: Toughest Probability Question |
| Date | 2011-12-15 12:13 -0800 |
| Organization | None to speak of |
| Message-ID | <lnliqd61bh.fsf@nuthaus.mib.org> (permalink) |
| References | (8 earlier) <jca3se$pln$1@dont-email.me> <slrnjei6n5.bv6.willem@toad.stack.nl> <jcb8cg$qie$1@dont-email.me> <slrnjeje67.an6.willem@toad.stack.nl> <a2hje7hcofpbk6gked01uo404rmc0dj5sv@4ax.com> |
Geoff <geoff@invalid.invalid> writes:
[...]
> It's been said more than once in this topic. The certainty is applied
> to the estimate of the probability, not to the actual outcome of any
> number of experiments. You can be certain the probability is greater
> than 50% at 23.
How can you be *certain* of that with no information about
the distribution of birthdays? (Unless you're assuming that a
non-uniform distribution is more likely to be biased in favor of
shared birthdays than against them; that might be a reasonable
point, but I suspect it's not the one you're making.)
[...]
> The probability of a coin toss coming up heads on a fair coin is 1/2
> and you can be certain of that calculation,
[...]
Yes, *if* you're given the premise that the coin is fair. In the
original statement of the problem we're discussing, no such
assumption was made.
--
Keith Thompson (The_Other_Keith) kst-u@mib.org <http://www.ghoti.net/~kst>
Will write code for food.
"We must do something. This is something. Therefore, we must do this."
-- Antony Jay and Jonathan Lynn, "Yes Minister"
Back to comp.lang.c | Previous | Next — Previous in thread | Next in thread | Find similar | Unroll thread
Re: Toughest Probability Question pete <pfiland@mindspring.com> - 2011-12-12 19:29 -0500
Re: Toughest Probability Question Seebs <usenet-nospam@seebs.net> - 2011-12-13 04:46 +0000
Re: Toughest Probability Question Geoff <geoff@invalid.invalid> - 2011-12-12 22:19 -0800
Re: Toughest Probability Question Seebs <usenet-nospam@seebs.net> - 2011-12-13 09:19 +0000
Re: Toughest Probability Question "BartC" <bc@freeuk.com> - 2011-12-13 13:43 +0000
Re: Toughest Probability Question Keith Thompson <kst-u@mib.org> - 2011-12-13 10:27 -0800
Re: Toughest Probability Question "BartC" <bc@freeuk.com> - 2011-12-13 19:52 +0000
Re: Toughest Probability Question Seebs <usenet-nospam@seebs.net> - 2011-12-13 20:06 +0000
Re: Toughest Probability Question Keith Thompson <kst-u@mib.org> - 2011-12-13 12:14 -0800
Re: Toughest Probability Question "BartC" <bc@freeuk.com> - 2011-12-13 23:34 +0000
Re: Toughest Probability Question Seebs <usenet-nospam@seebs.net> - 2011-12-14 00:24 +0000
Re: Toughest Probability Question Seebs <usenet-nospam@seebs.net> - 2011-12-13 19:27 +0000
Re: Toughest Probability Question "BartC" <bc@freeuk.com> - 2011-12-13 23:56 +0000
Re: Toughest Probability Question Seebs <usenet-nospam@seebs.net> - 2011-12-14 00:24 +0000
Re: Toughest Probability Question "BartC" <bc@freeuk.com> - 2011-12-14 12:12 +0000
Re: Toughest Probability Question Seebs <usenet-nospam@seebs.net> - 2011-12-14 17:47 +0000
Re: Toughest Probability Question gordonb.qunma@burditt.org (Gordon Burditt) - 2011-12-15 08:22 -0600
Re: Toughest Probability Question Robert Wessel <robertwessel2@yahoo.com> - 2011-12-15 14:41 -0600
Re: Toughest Probability Question superpollo <superpollo@tznvy.pbz> - 2011-12-15 19:14 +0100
Re: Toughest Probability Question Keith Thompson <kst-u@mib.org> - 2011-12-14 13:12 -0800
Re: Toughest Probability Question Willem <willem@toad.stack.nl> - 2011-12-14 21:53 +0000
Re: Toughest Probability Question "BartC" <bc@freeuk.com> - 2011-12-14 22:35 +0000
Re: Toughest Probability Question Willem <willem@toad.stack.nl> - 2011-12-15 09:07 +0000
Re: Toughest Probability Question Geoff <geoff@invalid.invalid> - 2011-12-15 02:07 -0800
Re: Toughest Probability Question Keith Thompson <kst-u@mib.org> - 2011-12-15 12:13 -0800
Re: Toughest Probability Question Geoff <geoff@invalid.invalid> - 2011-12-15 13:03 -0800
Re: Toughest Probability Question Seebs <usenet-nospam@seebs.net> - 2011-12-15 21:36 +0000
Re: Toughest Probability Question Geoff <geoff@invalid.invalid> - 2011-12-13 16:35 -0800
Re: Toughest Probability Question Seebs <usenet-nospam@seebs.net> - 2011-12-14 01:20 +0000
Re: Toughest Probability Question Keith Thompson <kst-u@mib.org> - 2011-12-13 16:44 -0800
Re: Toughest Probability Question Seebs <usenet-nospam@seebs.net> - 2011-12-14 01:20 +0000
Re: Toughest Probability Question James Dow Allen <jdallen2000@yahoo.com> - 2011-12-15 02:33 -0800
Re: Toughest Probability Question gwowen <gwowen@gmail.com> - 2011-12-15 05:38 -0800
Re: Toughest Probability Question Thad Smith <ThadSmith@acm.org> - 2011-12-18 23:34 -0700
Re: Toughest Probability Question Bill Reid <hormelfree@gmail.com> - 2011-12-14 07:07 -0800
Re: Toughest Probability Question Kaz Kylheku <kaz@kylheku.com> - 2011-12-13 06:55 +0000
Re: Toughest Probability Question Seebs <usenet-nospam@seebs.net> - 2011-12-13 09:19 +0000
Re: Toughest Probability Question pete <pfiland@mindspring.com> - 2011-12-13 12:15 -0500
Re: Toughest Probability Question pete <pfiland@mindspring.com> - 2011-12-13 13:20 -0500
Re: Toughest Probability Question Peter Nilsson <airia@acay.com.au> - 2011-12-13 18:15 -0800
Re: Toughest Probability Question pete <pfiland@mindspring.com> - 2011-12-13 21:52 -0500
csiph-web