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Re: Toughest Game Show Question

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On 10-Jan-12 17:43, Bill Reid wrote:
> On Jan 10, 9:21 am, Stephen Sprunk <step...@sprunk.org> wrote:
>> On 10-Jan-12 08:47, Bill Reid wrote:
>>> OH NO, THE DREADED "MONTY HALL" PROBLEM, IT'S BEEN AT LEAST A
>>> DECADE SINCE I'VE SEEN THIS MONSTROUSITY REAR IT'S UGLY HEAD IN
>>> USENET!!!!!!!
>>>
>>> The answer is that it doesn't matter, your odds are still one
>>> in three no matter what you do...but wait, does it matter if the
>>> presenter knows what's behind the doors and shows you the goat
>>> to make the game more interesting?  Let's see what happens with
>>> the "regs" here, might be fun...
>>
>> Mythbusters recently tested this.  You're always better off switching.
>>
> Did they use a Monte Carlo simulation where they fired cannonballs
> through the garage doors of dozens of innocent people to see whether
> there was a goat or car in the garage?

They did a Monte Carlo simulation, but unfortunately nothing was
destroyed in the process.

I prefer the mathematical proof, but that doesn't make for good TV.

> You're always better off switching, EXCEPT if the presenter knows
> you've chosen the car and ONLY offers you a different door to
> potentially keep you from winning the car.

Their test scenario was that the presenter _always_ opens a losing door,
which they said is how the actual game show worked.

They also first tested how often people switched after that door was
opened; interestingly, zero (of twenty) contestants did so.

S


-- 
Stephen Sprunk         "God does not play dice."  --Albert Einstein
CCIE #3723         "God is an inveterate gambler, and He throws the
K5SSS        dice at every possible opportunity." --Stephen Hawking

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Re: Toughest Game Show Question Bill Reid <hormelfree@gmail.com> - 2012-01-10 06:47 -0800
  Re: Toughest Game Show Question tom st denis <tom@iahu.ca> - 2012-01-10 07:11 -0800
    Re: Toughest Game Show Question falk@rahul.net (Edward A. Falk) - 2012-01-11 00:05 +0000
  Re: Toughest Game Show Question Eric Sosman <esosman@ieee-dot-org.invalid> - 2012-01-10 11:23 -0500
  Re: Toughest Game Show Question John Gordon <gordon@panix.com> - 2012-01-10 16:48 +0000
    Re: Toughest Game Show Question Seebs <usenet-nospam@seebs.net> - 2012-01-10 19:15 +0000
      Re: Toughest Game Show Question Keith Thompson <kst-u@mib.org> - 2012-01-10 13:27 -0800
        Re: Toughest Game Show Question James Kuyper <jameskuyper@verizon.net> - 2012-01-10 16:57 -0500
        Re: Toughest Game Show Question Seebs <usenet-nospam@seebs.net> - 2012-01-10 22:39 +0000
  Re: Toughest Game Show Question Stephen Sprunk <stephen@sprunk.org> - 2012-01-10 11:21 -0600
    Re: Toughest Game Show Question Bill Reid <hormelfree@gmail.com> - 2012-01-10 15:43 -0800
      Re: Toughest Game Show Question Stephen Sprunk <stephen@sprunk.org> - 2012-01-10 22:53 -0600
        Re: Toughest Game Show Question Seebs <usenet-nospam@seebs.net> - 2012-01-11 05:00 +0000
          Re: Toughest Game Show Question Kaz Kylheku <kaz@kylheku.com> - 2012-01-11 06:32 +0000
          Re: Toughest Game Show Question James Kuyper <jameskuyper@verizon.net> - 2012-01-11 07:22 -0500
      Re: Toughest Game Show Question falk@rahul.net (Edward A. Falk) - 2012-01-12 22:51 +0000
        Re: Toughest Game Show Question Ian Collins <ian-news@hotmail.com> - 2012-01-13 12:14 +1300
        Re: Toughest Game Show Question ImpalerCore <jadill33@gmail.com> - 2012-01-12 15:17 -0800
  Re: Toughest Game Show Question Shao Miller <sha0.miller@gmail.com> - 2012-01-10 14:33 -0500
  Re: Toughest Game Show Question Kaz Kylheku <kaz@kylheku.com> - 2012-01-11 01:44 +0000
    Re: Toughest Game Show Question Dann Corbit <dcorbit@connx.com> - 2012-01-10 23:48 -0800
      Re: Toughest Game Show Question James Kuyper <jameskuyper@verizon.net> - 2012-01-11 07:23 -0500
    Re: Toughest Game Show Question "M. Strobel" <sorry_no_mail_here@nowhere.dee> - 2012-01-11 14:33 +0100
      Re: Toughest Game Show Question Willem <willem@toad.stack.nl> - 2012-01-11 13:48 +0000
        Re: Toughest Game Show Question "M. Strobel" <sorry_no_mail_here@nowhere.dee> - 2012-01-11 18:44 +0100
          Re: Toughest Game Show Question Willem <willem@toad.stack.nl> - 2012-01-11 18:10 +0000
            Re: Toughest Game Show Question "M. Strobel" <sorry_no_mail_here@nowhere.dee> - 2012-01-11 19:23 +0100
          Re: Toughest Game Show Question James Kuyper <jameskuyper@verizon.net> - 2012-01-12 18:23 -0500
            Re: Toughest Game Show Question "M. Strobel" <sorry_no_mail_here@nowhere.dee> - 2012-01-15 19:03 +0100
            Re: Toughest Game Show Question Willem <willem@toad.stack.nl> - 2012-01-15 19:42 +0000
              Re: Toughest Game Show Question James Kuyper <jameskuyper@verizon.net> - 2012-01-15 16:57 -0500
              Re: Toughest Game Show Question Kaz Kylheku <kaz@kylheku.com> - 2012-01-16 04:16 +0000
                Re: Toughest Game Show Question gazelle@shell.xmission.com (Kenny McCormack) - 2012-01-16 12:14 +0000
                Re: Toughest Game Show Question Bill Reid <hormelfree@gmail.com> - 2012-01-17 07:31 -0800
                Re: Toughest Game Show Question Tim Rentsch <txr@alumni.caltech.edu> - 2012-01-26 09:33 -0800
    Re: Toughest Game Show Question "BartC" <bc@freeuk.com> - 2012-01-12 21:07 +0000
      factor jgk@panix.com (Joe keane) - 2012-01-12 22:53 +0000
      Re: Toughest Game Show Question pete <pfiland@mindspring.com> - 2012-01-14 23:38 -0500

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