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Re: Toughest Game Show Question

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BartC wrote:
> 
> "Kaz Kylheku" <kaz@kylheku.com> wrote in message
> news:20120110171743.392@kylheku.com...
> > On 2012-01-10, Bill Reid <hormelfree@gmail.com> wrote:
> >> On Jan 9, 8:56 pm, divya bisht <bisht88.di...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >>>
> >>> You are on a game show and there are three doors.
> >>> The presenter tells
> >>> you that behind one of doors there is a car
> >>> and behind the other two
> >>> are goats, if you pick the car you win it. After you have picked a
> >>> door the presenter opens a different door
> >>> with a goat behind it, he
> >>> then gives you the chance to change what door you open,
> >>> what should you do?
> 
> > I think you an easily solve this by a simple division into cases,
> > and simple probabilities.
> 
> I found it easier to think of a million doors instead of three.
> 
> You choose one door
> (obviously with 1/1000000 probability of choosing the
> one with the prize).
> 
> The host then opens 999,998 of the remaining 999,999 doors.
> One door stays closed.
> 
> Which of the two closed doors 
> (the one you chose at random, and the one
> that's deliberately left by the host) is more likely to have the prize
> behind it?

That's the way that I think of it also.

-- 
pete

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Re: Toughest Game Show Question Bill Reid <hormelfree@gmail.com> - 2012-01-10 06:47 -0800
  Re: Toughest Game Show Question tom st denis <tom@iahu.ca> - 2012-01-10 07:11 -0800
    Re: Toughest Game Show Question falk@rahul.net (Edward A. Falk) - 2012-01-11 00:05 +0000
  Re: Toughest Game Show Question Eric Sosman <esosman@ieee-dot-org.invalid> - 2012-01-10 11:23 -0500
  Re: Toughest Game Show Question John Gordon <gordon@panix.com> - 2012-01-10 16:48 +0000
    Re: Toughest Game Show Question Seebs <usenet-nospam@seebs.net> - 2012-01-10 19:15 +0000
      Re: Toughest Game Show Question Keith Thompson <kst-u@mib.org> - 2012-01-10 13:27 -0800
        Re: Toughest Game Show Question James Kuyper <jameskuyper@verizon.net> - 2012-01-10 16:57 -0500
        Re: Toughest Game Show Question Seebs <usenet-nospam@seebs.net> - 2012-01-10 22:39 +0000
  Re: Toughest Game Show Question Stephen Sprunk <stephen@sprunk.org> - 2012-01-10 11:21 -0600
    Re: Toughest Game Show Question Bill Reid <hormelfree@gmail.com> - 2012-01-10 15:43 -0800
      Re: Toughest Game Show Question Stephen Sprunk <stephen@sprunk.org> - 2012-01-10 22:53 -0600
        Re: Toughest Game Show Question Seebs <usenet-nospam@seebs.net> - 2012-01-11 05:00 +0000
          Re: Toughest Game Show Question Kaz Kylheku <kaz@kylheku.com> - 2012-01-11 06:32 +0000
          Re: Toughest Game Show Question James Kuyper <jameskuyper@verizon.net> - 2012-01-11 07:22 -0500
      Re: Toughest Game Show Question falk@rahul.net (Edward A. Falk) - 2012-01-12 22:51 +0000
        Re: Toughest Game Show Question Ian Collins <ian-news@hotmail.com> - 2012-01-13 12:14 +1300
        Re: Toughest Game Show Question ImpalerCore <jadill33@gmail.com> - 2012-01-12 15:17 -0800
  Re: Toughest Game Show Question Shao Miller <sha0.miller@gmail.com> - 2012-01-10 14:33 -0500
  Re: Toughest Game Show Question Kaz Kylheku <kaz@kylheku.com> - 2012-01-11 01:44 +0000
    Re: Toughest Game Show Question Dann Corbit <dcorbit@connx.com> - 2012-01-10 23:48 -0800
      Re: Toughest Game Show Question James Kuyper <jameskuyper@verizon.net> - 2012-01-11 07:23 -0500
    Re: Toughest Game Show Question "M. Strobel" <sorry_no_mail_here@nowhere.dee> - 2012-01-11 14:33 +0100
      Re: Toughest Game Show Question Willem <willem@toad.stack.nl> - 2012-01-11 13:48 +0000
        Re: Toughest Game Show Question "M. Strobel" <sorry_no_mail_here@nowhere.dee> - 2012-01-11 18:44 +0100
          Re: Toughest Game Show Question Willem <willem@toad.stack.nl> - 2012-01-11 18:10 +0000
            Re: Toughest Game Show Question "M. Strobel" <sorry_no_mail_here@nowhere.dee> - 2012-01-11 19:23 +0100
          Re: Toughest Game Show Question James Kuyper <jameskuyper@verizon.net> - 2012-01-12 18:23 -0500
            Re: Toughest Game Show Question "M. Strobel" <sorry_no_mail_here@nowhere.dee> - 2012-01-15 19:03 +0100
            Re: Toughest Game Show Question Willem <willem@toad.stack.nl> - 2012-01-15 19:42 +0000
              Re: Toughest Game Show Question James Kuyper <jameskuyper@verizon.net> - 2012-01-15 16:57 -0500
              Re: Toughest Game Show Question Kaz Kylheku <kaz@kylheku.com> - 2012-01-16 04:16 +0000
                Re: Toughest Game Show Question gazelle@shell.xmission.com (Kenny McCormack) - 2012-01-16 12:14 +0000
                Re: Toughest Game Show Question Bill Reid <hormelfree@gmail.com> - 2012-01-17 07:31 -0800
                Re: Toughest Game Show Question Tim Rentsch <txr@alumni.caltech.edu> - 2012-01-26 09:33 -0800
    Re: Toughest Game Show Question "BartC" <bc@freeuk.com> - 2012-01-12 21:07 +0000
      factor jgk@panix.com (Joe keane) - 2012-01-12 22:53 +0000
      Re: Toughest Game Show Question pete <pfiland@mindspring.com> - 2012-01-14 23:38 -0500

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