New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming

Newsgroups	sci.physics
From	Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com>
Subject	New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming
Date	2015-08-19 12:10 -0500
Message-ID	<IvSdnbywPI3tJUnInZ2dnUU7-REAAAAA@giganews.com> (permalink)

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New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and 
could explain 'pause' in global warming
> http://phys.org/news/2015-08-method-atmospheric-months-decades-global.html


> In a new paper published online in Geophysical Research Letters,
> Lovejoy shows how to directly harness the atmosphere's elephantine
> memory to produce temperature forecasts that are somewhat more
> accurate than conventional numerical computer models. This new
> method, he says, could help improve notoriously poor seasonal
> forecasts, as well as producing better long-term climate
> projections.

> Improvement on standard approach

> To take advantage of the butterfly effect, Lovejoy's approach treats
> the weather as random and uses historical data to force the forecast
> to reflect a realistic climate. This allows it to overcome
> limitations of the standard approach, in which imperfect
> representations of the weather push a computer model to be consistent
> with its model climate - rather than with the real climate. The new
> method also represents an improvement over other statistical
> forecasting techniques that exploit only the atmosphere's short-term
> memory, Lovejoy asserts.

> Lovejoy's paper uses a simple version of his new method to show that
> the so-called pause in global warming since 1998 can be well
> explained with the help of historical atmospheric data. He also
> concludes that this method proves more accurate over this period than
> the standard computer models used, for example, by the International
> Panel on Climate Change.

> Lovejoy's model also predicts that if greenhouse gas emissions
> continue at the post 2000 rate, there is a 97.5% chance that the
> "pause" in global warming will be over before 2020.
>
>
> Read more at:
> http://phys.org/news/2015-08-method-atmospheric-months-decades-global.html#jCp


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New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-08-19 12:10 -0500
  The effect of 0.04% trace gas CO2 is exactly less than 0.04% on glow bull wumming 7 <email_at_www_at_enemygadgets_dot_com@enemygadgets.com> - 2015-08-19 18:47 +0100
  Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming gilber34 <invalid@invalid.com> - 2015-08-19 12:51 -0500
    Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming Friendly Neighborhood Vote Wrangler Emeritus <FNVWe@altusenetkooks.xxx> - 2015-08-20 06:17 +0200
      Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming benj <nobody@gmail.com> - 2015-08-20 01:05 -0400
        Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming "\"Fakey's\" dogwhistle holder living at 5907 Stanton Ave., Pittsburgh, PA (aka Teh Mop  Jockey), socked up as 5907 Stanton Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15206-2117" <root@127.0.0.1> - 2015-08-20 03:08 -0400
        Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming Friendly Neighborhood Vote Wrangler Emeritus <FNVWe@altusenetkooks.xxx> - 2015-08-20 17:56 +0200
      Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming "\"Fakey's\" dogwhistle holder living at 5907 Stanton Ave., Pittsburgh, PA (aka Teh Mop  Jockey), socked up as 5907 Stanton Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15206-2117" <root@127.0.0.1> - 2015-08-20 03:04 -0400
        Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming Friendly Neighborhood Vote Wrangler Emeritus <FNVWe@altusenetkooks.xxx> - 2015-08-20 18:13 +0200
          Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming "\"Fakey's\" dogwhistle holder living at 5907 Stanton Ave., Pittsburgh, PA (aka Teh Mop  Jockey), socked up as 5907 Stanton Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15206-2117" <root@127.0.0.1> - 2015-08-21 00:15 -0400
            Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming Friendly Neighborhood Vote Wrangler Emeritus <FNVWe@altusenetkooks.xxx> - 2015-08-21 19:23 +0200
              Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming "\"Fakey's\" dogwhistle holder living at 5907 Stanton Ave., Pittsburgh, PA (aka Teh Mop  Jockey), socked up as 5907 Stanton Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15206-2117" <root@127.0.0.1> - 2015-08-22 12:03 -0400
                Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming Friendly Neighborhood Vote Wrangler Emeritus <FNVWe@altusenetkooks.xxx> - 2015-08-22 18:57 +0200
                Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming "\"Fakey's\" dogwhistle holder living at 5907 Stanton Ave., Pittsburgh, PA (aka Teh Mop  Jockey), socked up as 5907 Stanton Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15206-2117" <root@127.0.0.1> - 2015-08-22 15:09 -0400
                Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming Friendly Neighborhood Vote Wrangler Emeritus <FNVWe@altusenetkooks.xxx> - 2015-08-22 22:14 +0200
                Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming gilber34 <invalid@invalid.com> - 2015-08-22 16:32 -0500
                Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming Friendly Neighborhood Vote Wrangler Emeritus <FNVWe@altusenetkooks.xxx> - 2015-08-23 01:26 +0200
                Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming "\"Fakey's\" dogwhistle holder living at 5907 Stanton Ave., Pittsburgh, PA (aka Teh Mop  Jockey), socked up as 5907 Stanton Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15206-2117" <root@127.0.0.1> - 2015-08-23 04:01 -0400
                Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming Friendly Neighborhood Vote Wrangler Emeritus <FNVWe@altusenetkooks.xxx> - 2015-08-23 17:48 +0200
          Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming Jed Clampett <jc@invalid.invalid> - 2015-08-22 01:40 -0700
            Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming Friendly Neighborhood Vote Wrangler Emeritus <FNVWe@altusenetkooks.xxx> - 2015-08-22 18:16 +0200
              Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming Jed Clampett <jc@invalid.invalid> - 2015-08-23 12:55 -0700
      Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming "Kadaitcha Man" <nospam.nospam.nospam@alt.astronomy.fart-acceptance> - 2015-08-21 08:31 +0000
        Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming Friendly Neighborhood Vote Wrangler Emeritus <FNVWe@altusenetkooks.xxx> - 2015-08-20 19:10 +0200
          Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming МалыШ <oppressed.welly-boot.top@melancholy.yum.yum> - 2015-08-22 07:00 +0000
            Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming Friendly Neighborhood Vote Wrangler Emeritus <FNVWe@altusenetkooks.xxx> - 2015-08-21 20:53 +0200
              Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2015-08-21 14:15 -0700
              Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming "Kadaitcha Man" <nospam.nospam.nospam@alabama.clay.colored.stools> - 2015-08-22 22:31 +0000
                Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming Friendly Neighborhood Vote Wrangler Emeritus <FNVWe@altusenetkooks.xxx> - 2015-08-22 06:17 +0200
                Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming "Akhen-f-eshef" <two.bit.altar.of.love@floppy.penis.penitentiary> - 2015-08-23 08:19 +0000
                Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming Friendly Neighborhood Vote Wrangler Emeritus <FNVWe@altusenetkooks.xxx> - 2015-08-22 19:44 +0200
                Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming "Jackson Fashshaw-Pofway" <cracked.up.cooze@creaky.peach.fish> - 2015-08-23 23:22 +0000
                Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming Friendly Neighborhood Vote Wrangler Emeritus <FNVWe@altusenetkooks.xxx> - 2015-08-23 04:12 +0200
                Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming "Cedric Fenningstone-Chistway" <dried-up.peeper@incomplete.penis.penitentiary> - 2015-08-24 03:03 +0000
                Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming Friendly Neighborhood Vote Wrangler Emeritus <FNVWe@altusenetkooks.xxx> - 2015-08-23 06:47 +0200
                Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming "Kadaitcha Man" <nospam.nospam.nospam@alt.christnet.party-girls> - 2015-08-25 04:00 +0000
                Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming Friendly Neighborhood Vote Wrangler Emeritus <FNVWe@altusenetkooks.xxx> - 2015-08-23 21:21 +0200
                Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming "\"Fakey's\" dogwhistle holder living at 5907 Stanton Ave., Pittsburgh, PA (aka Teh Mop  Jockey), socked up as 5907 Stanton Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15206-2117" <root@127.0.0.1> - 2015-08-24 13:23 -0400
        Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming "\"Fakey's\" dogwhistle holder living at 5907 Stanton Ave., Pittsburgh, PA (aka Teh Mop  Jockey), socked up as 5907 Stanton Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15206-2117" <root@127.0.0.1> - 2015-08-20 18:41 -0400
  Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2015-08-19 13:49 -0700
  Re: New method could improve atmospheric forecasts over months, decades, and could explain 'pause' in global warming Yousuf Khan <bbbl67@spammenot.yahoo.com> - 2015-08-23 12:27 -0400

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