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Statisticians Probe Tree Ring Climate Data

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  Statisticians Probe Tree Ring Climate Data Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2016-01-29 08:23 -0600
    Re: Statisticians Probe Tree Ring Climate Data jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-01-29 19:21 +0000
      Re: Statisticians Probe Tree Ring Climate Data Polikwaptiwa <polikw@polikwamail.org> - 2016-01-30 00:52 +0000
    Re: Statisticians Probe Tree Ring Climate Data Sergio <invalid@invalid.com> - 2016-01-29 14:52 -0600
    Re: Statisticians Probe Tree Ring Climate Data 7 <email_at_www_at_enemygadgets_dot_com@enemygadgets.com> - 2016-01-31 20:59 +0000

#549072 — Statisticians Probe Tree Ring Climate Data

Statisticians Probe Tree Ring Climate Data
> http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/statisticians-probe-tree-ring-climate-data.html


> Uncertainties in tree-ring-based climate reconstructions probed.
> Results suggest that there is less certainty than implied by a
> reconstruction developed using any one set of assumptions

> Abstract
>
> Quantifying long-term historical climate is fundamental to
> understanding recent climate change. Most instrumentally recorded
> climate data are only available for the past 200 years, s o proxy
> observations from natural archives are often considered. We describe
> a model-based approach to reconstructing climate defined in terms of
> raw tree-ring measurement data that simultaneously accounts for
> non-climatic and climatic variability. In this approach we specify a
> joint model for the tree-ring data and climate variable that we fit
> using Bayesian inference. We consider a range of prior densities and
> compare the modeling approach to current methodology using an example
> case of Scots pine from Torneträsk, Sweden to reconstruct growing
> season temperature. We describe how current approaches translate into
> particular model assumptions. We explore how changes to various
> components in the model-based approach affect the resulting
> reconstruction. We show that minor changes in model specification can
> have little effect on model fit but lead to large changes in the
> predictions. In particular, the periods of relatively warmer and
> cooler temperatures are robust between models, but the magnitude of
> the resulting temperatures are highly model dependent. Such
> sensitivity may not be apparent with traditional approaches because
> the underlying statistical model is often hidden or poorly
> described.
>
> Citation
>
> A Model-Based Approach to Climate Reconstruction Using Tree-Ring Data
> by Matthew R. Schofield, Richard J. Barker, Andrew Gelman, Edward R.
> Cook & Keith R. Briffa published in the Journal of the American
> Statistical Association, DOI:10.1080/01621459.2015.1110524




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#549191

Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> wrote:
> Statisticians Probe Tree Ring Climate Data
>> http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/statisticians-probe-tree-ring-climate-data.html
> 
> 
>> Uncertainties in tree-ring-based climate reconstructions probed.
>> Results suggest that there is less certainty than implied by a
>> reconstruction developed using any one set of assumptions

Bottom line is it is all speculative and unprovable guesswork.


-- 
Jim Pennino

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#549285

jimp wrote:

>>> Uncertainties in tree-ring-based climate reconstructions probed.
>>> Results suggest that there is less certainty than implied by a
>>> reconstruction developed using any one set of assumptions
> 
> Bottom line is it is all speculative and unprovable guesswork.

Tree-rings in our forests are not going farther than a few hundreds years 
in total. The very old one are not dissected.

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#549216

On 1/29/2016 8:23 AM, Sam Wormley wrote:
> Statisticians Probe Tree Ring Climate Data
>> http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/statisticians-probe-tree-ring-climate-data.html
>>
>
>
>> Uncertainties in tree-ring-based climate reconstructions probed.
>> Results *suggest* that there is *less certainty* than *implied* by a
>> reconstruction developed using any one set of assumptions
>

     =>  so it is all poop.

>> Abstract
>>
>> Quantifying long-term historical climate is fundamental to
>> *understanding* recent climate change. *Most* instrumentally recorded
>> climate data are *only available* for the past 200 years, s o *proxy*
>> observations from *natural archives* are *often considered*.


<snip>


>> We show that *minor changes* in model specification can
>> have little effect on model fit but lead to *large changes* in the
>> predictions. In particular, the periods of relatively warmer and
>> cooler temperatures are robust between models, but the magnitude of
>> the resulting temperatures are *highly model dependent*. Such
>> sensitivity may not be apparent with traditional approaches because
>> the *underlying* statistical model is often *hidden* or poorly
>> described.
>

NSS.  that is a description of an "uncontrollable" system.  google 
"controlability", it is a field of study in engineering of systems.


If you have a black box and 2 outputs, and 10 inputs, adjust one input 
and see what the effect is on the 2 outputs.  There may be none.

Climate is a black box with hundreds of thousands of inputs, and 
thousands of outputs, but they use just one => a calculated average 
temperature.

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#549581

Sam Wormley wrote:

> Statisticians Probe Tree Ring Climate Data
>> http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-
stories/article/statisticians-probe-tree-ring-climate-data.html


Fake science.

This is a physics newsgroup where sigma 5 means it is considered science.

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