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Sensitivity Study: Climate Outlook Worse Than Feared

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  Sensitivity Study: Climate Outlook Worse Than Feared Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-12-15 20:31 -0600
    Re: Sensitivity Study: Climate Outlook Worse Than Feared jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2015-12-16 03:44 +0000
    Re: Sensitivity Study: Climate Outlook Worse Than Feared gilber34 <fafa@invalid.com> - 2015-12-15 22:58 -0600
    Re: Sensitivity Study: Climate Outlook Worse Than Feared Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com> - 2015-12-16 07:46 -0500
    Re: Sensitivity Study: Climate Outlook Worse Than Feared Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-12-16 12:59 -0600

#539505 — Sensitivity Study: Climate Outlook Worse Than Feared

Sensitivity Study: Climate Outlook Worse Than Feared
> http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/sensitivity-study-climate-outlook-worse-than-feared.html



> The impact of climate change may be worse than previously thought, a
> new study suggests
>
> As world leaders hold climate talks in Paris, research shows that
> land surface temperatures may rise by an average of almost 8C by
> 2100, if significant efforts are not made to counteract climate
> change.

> Abstract
>
> Earth has been habitable through most of its history, but the
> anthropogenically mediated greenhouse effect, if sufficiently strong,
> can threaten Earth's long-standing equability. This paper's main aim
> is to determine the strength of the anthropogenic greenhouse effect
> (the climate sensitivity) from observational data and basic physics
> alone, without recourse to the parameterisations of earth-system
> models and their inevitable uncertainties. A key finding is that the
> sensitivity can be constrained by harmonising historical records of
> land and ocean temperatures with observations of potential
> climate-change drivers in a non-steady state, energy-balance equation
> via a least-squares optimisation. The global temperature increase,
> for a CO2 doubling, is found to lie (95 % confidence limits) between
> 3.0oC and 6.3oC, with a best estimate of +4oC. Under a
> business-as-usual scenario, which assumes that there will be no
> significant change in people's attitudes and priorities, Earth's
> surface temperature is forecast to rise by 7.9oC over the land, and
> by 3.6oC over the oceans, by the year 2100. Global temperature rise
> has slowed in the last decade, leading some to question climate
> predictions of substantial 21st-Century warming. A formal runs test,
> however, shows that the recent slowdown is part of the normal
> behaviour of the climate system.
>
> Citation
>
> Climate sensitivity by Roy Thompson published by Earth and
> Environmental Science Transactions of the Royal Society of Edinburgh,
> DOI: 10.1017/S1755691015000213
>

   Yikes!

-- 

sci.physics is an unmoderated newsgroup dedicated
to the discussion of physics, news from the physics
community, and physics-related social issues.

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#539524

Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> wrote:
> Sensitivity Study: Climate Outlook Worse Than Feared
>> http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/sensitivity-study-climate-outlook-worse-than-feared.html
> 
> 
> 
>> The impact of climate change may be worse than previously thought, a
>> new study suggests
>>
>> As world leaders hold climate talks in Paris, research shows that
>> land surface temperatures may rise by an average of almost 8C by
>> 2100, if significant efforts are not made to counteract climate
>> change.
> 
>> Abstract
>>
>> Earth has been habitable through most of its history, but the
>> anthropogenically mediated greenhouse effect, if sufficiently strong,
>> can threaten Earth's long-standing equability. This paper's main aim
>> is to determine the strength of the anthropogenic greenhouse effect
>> (the climate sensitivity) from observational data and basic physics
>> alone, without recourse to the parameterisations of earth-system
>> models and their inevitable uncertainties. A key finding is that the
>> sensitivity can be constrained by harmonising historical records of
>> land and ocean temperatures with observations of potential
>> climate-change drivers in a non-steady state, energy-balance equation
>> via a least-squares optimisation. The global temperature increase,
>> for a CO2 doubling, is found to lie (95 % confidence limits) between
>> 3.0oC and 6.3oC, with a best estimate of +4oC. Under a
>> business-as-usual scenario, which assumes that there will be no
>> significant change in people's attitudes and priorities, Earth's
>> surface temperature is forecast to rise by 7.9oC over the land, and
>> by 3.6oC over the oceans, by the year 2100. Global temperature rise
>> has slowed in the last decade, leading some to question climate
>> predictions of substantial 21st-Century warming. A formal runs test,
>> however, shows that the recent slowdown is part of the normal
>> behaviour of the climate system.
>>
>> Citation
>>
>> Climate sensitivity by Roy Thompson published by Earth and
>> Environmental Science Transactions of the Royal Society of Edinburgh,
>> DOI: 10.1017/S1755691015000213
>>
> 
>   Yikes!

Yet more FUD from the cut and paste ass hat.
 

-- 
Jim Pennino

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#539532

On 12/15/2015 8:31 PM, Sam Wormley wrote:
> Sensitivity Study: Climate Outlook Worse Than Feared

>
>
>
>> The impact of climate change may be worse than previously thought, a
>> new study suggests
>>
>> As world leaders hold climate talks in Paris, research shows that
>> land surface temperatures may rise by an average of almost 8C by
>> 2100, if significant efforts are not made to counteract climate
>> change.
>

>
>    Yikes!
>

these articles are expired as the Paris conference is over.
no need to c+p them in sci.physics

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#539570

On Tue, 15 Dec 2015 20:31:54 -0600, Sam Wormley wrote:

>Sensitivity Study: Climate Outlook Worse Than Feared
>> http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/sensitivity-study-climate-outlook-worse-than-feared.html
>
>
>
>> The impact of climate change may be worse than previously thought, a
>> new study suggests

How long ago was the science "settled?"

Why is the "consensus" continually suprised if they knew it all
decades ago?


>> As world leaders hold climate talks in Paris, 

Nope. Done. Time for the assessment of how they did:


<http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/30/world/cop21-paris-conference-five-things/>
Since the goal is very clear for COP21, it is necessary for the
nations to unanimously adopt a legally binding agreement that will
reduce global carbon emissions and aim to keep warming below the
2-degree threshold. Anything resembling Copenhagen in 2009, where some
limits to greenhouse gases were agreed upon but no treaty was
ultimately signed, would be deemed a failure.

Do you agree with this pass-fail criterion?

If so, how did they do?


If not, is this your metric for success:

<http://www.goodreads.com/quotes/337766-to-be-sure-of-hitting-the-target-shoot-first-and>
Ashleigh Brilliant -- 'To be sure of hitting the target, shoot first,
and call whatever you hit the target'


"The warmistas are not just wrong. They are festeringly evil.
They are giggling malevolent monsters, perching and waiting
to feast on the bodies of the people, by the billion, they
hope to kill."


http://www.globalwarming.org/2012/02/07/the-great-delusion/#more-12926
"In centuries hence the global warming boogey man will be seen for
exactly what it is -- The Great Delusion.  Future generations will
wonder how so many people could have believed something so suicidally
ridiculous."

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#539631

On 12/15/15 8:31 PM, Sam Wormley wrote:
> Sensitivity Study: Climate Outlook Worse Than Feared
>> http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/sensitivity-study-climate-outlook-worse-than-feared.html
>>
>
>
>
>> The impact of climate change may be worse than previously thought, a
>> new study suggests
>>
>> As world leaders hold climate talks in Paris, research shows that
>> land surface temperatures may rise by an average of almost 8C by
>> 2100, if significant efforts are not made to counteract climate
>> change.
>
>> Abstract
>>
>> Earth has been habitable through most of its history, but the
>> anthropogenically mediated greenhouse effect, if sufficiently strong,
>> can threaten Earth's long-standing equability. This paper's main aim
>> is to determine the strength of the anthropogenic greenhouse effect
>> (the climate sensitivity) from observational data and basic physics
>> alone, without recourse to the parameterisations of earth-system
>> models and their inevitable uncertainties. A key finding is that the
>> sensitivity can be constrained by harmonising historical records of
>> land and ocean temperatures with observations of potential
>> climate-change drivers in a non-steady state, energy-balance equation
>> via a least-squares optimisation. The global temperature increase,
>> for a CO2 doubling, is found to lie (95 % confidence limits) between
>> 3.0oC and 6.3oC, with a best estimate of +4oC. Under a
>> business-as-usual scenario, which assumes that there will be no
>> significant change in people's attitudes and priorities, Earth's
>> surface temperature is forecast to rise by 7.9oC over the land, and
>> by 3.6oC over the oceans, by the year 2100. Global temperature rise
>> has slowed in the last decade, leading some to question climate
>> predictions of substantial 21st-Century warming. A formal runs test,
>> however, shows that the recent slowdown is part of the normal
>> behaviour of the climate system.
>>
>> Citation
>>
>> Climate sensitivity by Roy Thompson published by Earth and
>> Environmental Science Transactions of the Royal Society of Edinburgh,
>> DOI: 10.1017/S1755691015000213
>>
>
>    Yikes!
>


   Here I was just getting my hopes up that we aren't toast.


-- 

sci.physics is an unmoderated newsgroup dedicated
to the discussion of physics, news from the physics
community, and physics-related social issues.

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