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Re: Sensitivity Study: Climate Outlook Worse Than Feared

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Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> wrote:
> Sensitivity Study: Climate Outlook Worse Than Feared
>> http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/sensitivity-study-climate-outlook-worse-than-feared.html
> 
> 
> 
>> The impact of climate change may be worse than previously thought, a
>> new study suggests
>>
>> As world leaders hold climate talks in Paris, research shows that
>> land surface temperatures may rise by an average of almost 8C by
>> 2100, if significant efforts are not made to counteract climate
>> change.
> 
>> Abstract
>>
>> Earth has been habitable through most of its history, but the
>> anthropogenically mediated greenhouse effect, if sufficiently strong,
>> can threaten Earth's long-standing equability. This paper's main aim
>> is to determine the strength of the anthropogenic greenhouse effect
>> (the climate sensitivity) from observational data and basic physics
>> alone, without recourse to the parameterisations of earth-system
>> models and their inevitable uncertainties. A key finding is that the
>> sensitivity can be constrained by harmonising historical records of
>> land and ocean temperatures with observations of potential
>> climate-change drivers in a non-steady state, energy-balance equation
>> via a least-squares optimisation. The global temperature increase,
>> for a CO2 doubling, is found to lie (95 % confidence limits) between
>> 3.0oC and 6.3oC, with a best estimate of +4oC. Under a
>> business-as-usual scenario, which assumes that there will be no
>> significant change in people's attitudes and priorities, Earth's
>> surface temperature is forecast to rise by 7.9oC over the land, and
>> by 3.6oC over the oceans, by the year 2100. Global temperature rise
>> has slowed in the last decade, leading some to question climate
>> predictions of substantial 21st-Century warming. A formal runs test,
>> however, shows that the recent slowdown is part of the normal
>> behaviour of the climate system.
>>
>> Citation
>>
>> Climate sensitivity by Roy Thompson published by Earth and
>> Environmental Science Transactions of the Royal Society of Edinburgh,
>> DOI: 10.1017/S1755691015000213
>>
> 
>   Yikes!

Yet more FUD from the cut and paste ass hat.
 

-- 
Jim Pennino

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Sensitivity Study: Climate Outlook Worse Than Feared Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-12-15 20:31 -0600
  Re: Sensitivity Study: Climate Outlook Worse Than Feared jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2015-12-16 03:44 +0000
  Re: Sensitivity Study: Climate Outlook Worse Than Feared gilber34 <fafa@invalid.com> - 2015-12-15 22:58 -0600
  Re: Sensitivity Study: Climate Outlook Worse Than Feared Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com> - 2015-12-16 07:46 -0500
  Re: Sensitivity Study: Climate Outlook Worse Than Feared Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-12-16 12:59 -0600

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