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Understated Threat

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  Understated Threat Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-12-18 14:30 -0600
    Re: Understated Threat jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2015-12-18 20:41 +0000
    Re: Understated Threat chanB4 <invalid@invalid.com> - 2015-12-19 15:03 -0600

#540097 — Understated Threat

Understated Threat
> http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/sensitivity-study-climate-outlook-worse-than-feared.html

 > The study calculated the likely effect of increasing atmospheric
 > levels of greenhouse gases above pre-industrialisation amounts.
 >
 > It finds that if emissions continue to grow at current rates, with no
 > significant action taken by society, then by 2100 global land
 > temperatures will have increased by 7.9C, compared with 1750.
 >

 > Abstract
 >
 > Earth has been habitable through most of its history, but the
 > anthropogenically mediated greenhouse effect, if sufficiently strong,
 > can threaten Earth's long-standing equability. This paper's main aim
 > is to determine the strength of the anthropogenic greenhouse effect
 > (the climate sensitivity) from observational data and basic physics
 > alone, without recourse to the parameterisations of earth-system
 > models and their inevitable uncertainties. A key finding is that the
 > sensitivity can be constrained by harmonising historical records of
 > land and ocean temperatures with observations of potential
 > climate-change drivers in a non-steady state, energy-balance equation
 > via a least-squares optimisation. The global temperature increase,
 > for a CO2 doubling, is found to lie (95 % confidence limits) between
 > 3.0oC and 6.3oC, with a best estimate of +4oC. Under a
 > business-as-usual scenario, which assumes that there will be no
 > significant change in people's attitudes and priorities, Earth's
 > surface temperature is forecast to rise by 7.9oC over the land, and
 > by 3.6oC over the oceans, by the year 2100. Global temperature rise
 > has slowed in the last decade, leading some to question climate
 > predictions of substantial 21st-Century warming. A formal runs test,
 > however, shows that the recent slowdown is part of the normal
 > behaviour of the climate system.
 >
 > Citation
 >
 > Climate sensitivity by Roy Thompson published by Earth and
 > Environmental Science Transactions of the Royal Society of Edinburgh,
 > DOI: 10.1017/S1755691015000213
 >


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#540101

Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> wrote:
> Understated Threat
>> http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/sensitivity-study-climate-outlook-worse-than-feared.html
> 
>> The study calculated the likely effect of increasing atmospheric
>> levels of greenhouse gases above pre-industrialisation amounts.
>>
>> It finds that if emissions continue to grow at current rates, with no
>> significant action taken by society, then by 2100 global land
>> temperatures will have increased by 7.9C, compared with 1750.
>>
> 
>> Abstract
>>
>> Earth has been habitable through most of its history, but the
>> anthropogenically mediated greenhouse effect, if sufficiently strong,
>> can threaten Earth's long-standing equability. This paper's main aim
>> is to determine the strength of the anthropogenic greenhouse effect
>> (the climate sensitivity) from observational data and basic physics
>> alone, without recourse to the parameterisations of earth-system
>> models and their inevitable uncertainties. A key finding is that the
>> sensitivity can be constrained by harmonising historical records of
>> land and ocean temperatures with observations of potential
>> climate-change drivers in a non-steady state, energy-balance equation
>> via a least-squares optimisation. The global temperature increase,
>> for a CO2 doubling, is found to lie (95 % confidence limits) between
>> 3.0oC and 6.3oC, with a best estimate of +4oC. Under a
>> business-as-usual scenario, which assumes that there will be no
>> significant change in people's attitudes and priorities, Earth's
>> surface temperature is forecast to rise by 7.9oC over the land, and
>> by 3.6oC over the oceans, by the year 2100. Global temperature rise
>> has slowed in the last decade, leading some to question climate
>> predictions of substantial 21st-Century warming. A formal runs test,
>> however, shows that the recent slowdown is part of the normal
>> behaviour of the climate system.
>>
>> Citation
>>
>> Climate sensitivity by Roy Thompson published by Earth and
>> Environmental Science Transactions of the Royal Society of Edinburgh,
>> DOI: 10.1017/S1755691015000213
>>
 
Just more arm waving FUD.

 
-- 
Jim Pennino

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#540317

On 12/18/2015 2:30 PM, Sam Wormley wrote:
> Understated Threat
>> http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/sensitivity-study-climate-outlook-worse-than-feared.html
>>
>
>  > The study calculated the likely effect of increasing atmospheric
>  > levels of greenhouse gases above pre-industrialisation amounts.
>  >
>  > It finds that if emissions continue to grow at current rates, with no
>  > significant action taken by society, then by 2100 global land
>  > temperatures will have increased by 7.9C, compared with 1750.
>  >
>
>  > Abstract
>  >
>  > Earth has been habitable through most of its history, but the
>  > anthropogenically mediated greenhouse effect, if sufficiently strong,
>  > can threaten Earth's long-standing equability. This paper's main aim



too many data points are guessed at, and filled in by climate modlers, 
in fact 99.99% of all points on the earth are "guessed at",  before 1980.

the measurements are of surface temperature, or near surface 
temperature, which is air temperature, which is 1000 times less dense 
than land or water. another huge mistake

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