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Re: Understated Threat

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Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> wrote:
> Understated Threat
>> http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/sensitivity-study-climate-outlook-worse-than-feared.html
> 
>> The study calculated the likely effect of increasing atmospheric
>> levels of greenhouse gases above pre-industrialisation amounts.
>>
>> It finds that if emissions continue to grow at current rates, with no
>> significant action taken by society, then by 2100 global land
>> temperatures will have increased by 7.9C, compared with 1750.
>>
> 
>> Abstract
>>
>> Earth has been habitable through most of its history, but the
>> anthropogenically mediated greenhouse effect, if sufficiently strong,
>> can threaten Earth's long-standing equability. This paper's main aim
>> is to determine the strength of the anthropogenic greenhouse effect
>> (the climate sensitivity) from observational data and basic physics
>> alone, without recourse to the parameterisations of earth-system
>> models and their inevitable uncertainties. A key finding is that the
>> sensitivity can be constrained by harmonising historical records of
>> land and ocean temperatures with observations of potential
>> climate-change drivers in a non-steady state, energy-balance equation
>> via a least-squares optimisation. The global temperature increase,
>> for a CO2 doubling, is found to lie (95 % confidence limits) between
>> 3.0oC and 6.3oC, with a best estimate of +4oC. Under a
>> business-as-usual scenario, which assumes that there will be no
>> significant change in people's attitudes and priorities, Earth's
>> surface temperature is forecast to rise by 7.9oC over the land, and
>> by 3.6oC over the oceans, by the year 2100. Global temperature rise
>> has slowed in the last decade, leading some to question climate
>> predictions of substantial 21st-Century warming. A formal runs test,
>> however, shows that the recent slowdown is part of the normal
>> behaviour of the climate system.
>>
>> Citation
>>
>> Climate sensitivity by Roy Thompson published by Earth and
>> Environmental Science Transactions of the Royal Society of Edinburgh,
>> DOI: 10.1017/S1755691015000213
>>
 
Just more arm waving FUD.

 
-- 
Jim Pennino

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Understated Threat Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-12-18 14:30 -0600
  Re: Understated Threat jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2015-12-18 20:41 +0000
  Re: Understated Threat chanB4 <invalid@invalid.com> - 2015-12-19 15:03 -0600

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