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NNTP-Posting-Date: Sat, 14 Jan 2012 22:38:19 -0600
Message-ID: <4F125847.7201@mindspring.com>
Date: Sat, 14 Jan 2012 23:38:31 -0500
From: pete <pfiland@mindspring.com>
Reply-To: pfiland@mindspring.com
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Subject: Re: Toughest Game Show Question
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BartC wrote:
> 
> "Kaz Kylheku" <kaz@kylheku.com> wrote in message
> news:20120110171743.392@kylheku.com...
> > On 2012-01-10, Bill Reid <hormelfree@gmail.com> wrote:
> >> On Jan 9, 8:56 pm, divya bisht <bisht88.di...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >>>
> >>> You are on a game show and there are three doors.
> >>> The presenter tells
> >>> you that behind one of doors there is a car
> >>> and behind the other two
> >>> are goats, if you pick the car you win it. After you have picked a
> >>> door the presenter opens a different door
> >>> with a goat behind it, he
> >>> then gives you the chance to change what door you open,
> >>> what should you do?
> 
> > I think you an easily solve this by a simple division into cases,
> > and simple probabilities.
> 
> I found it easier to think of a million doors instead of three.
> 
> You choose one door
> (obviously with 1/1000000 probability of choosing the
> one with the prize).
> 
> The host then opens 999,998 of the remaining 999,999 doors.
> One door stays closed.
> 
> Which of the two closed doors 
> (the one you chose at random, and the one
> that's deliberately left by the host) is more likely to have the prize
> behind it?

That's the way that I think of it also.

-- 
pete