Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets

From	D <nospam@example.net>
Newsgroups	comp.os.linux.misc
Subject	Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets
Date	2025-01-29 15:18 +0100
Organization	i2pn2 (i2pn.org)
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On Tue, 28 Jan 2025, rbowman wrote:

> On Tue, 28 Jan 2025 21:40:42 +0100, D wrote:
>
>> I like the humiliation thesis. But I also think it is a little but more
>> refined than that. Causing US companies financial damage is very
>> attractive to them, and if they can hasten the crash of the AI bubble
>> along, they would be happy too.
>
> The US tried to cripple them by limiting Nvidia exports. They made do with
> second tier GPUs.
>
> It's interesting how an awful communist dictatorship open sourced the
> whole thing plus a long paper on how they did it while Microsoft, Meta,
> OpenAI and the others are only interested in their bottom line.
>
> Mao to the contrary I think China is really a successful national
> socialist country.
>

I'm not so sure. Plenty of stuff is hidden there and never reaches our 
eyes and ears.

What follows is an article from the swedish mainstream press about how 
things in china might be far worse than we know. Add their demographical 
situation on top of that, and it does not look so good for them.

++++

svd.se
China is trying to protect its population – with heavy subsidies
Johan Carlström
11–15 minutes
China's rescue plan could be a disaster – for Europe
Illustration: Alexander Rauscher
Illustration: Alexander Rauscher Photo: TT

The Chinese regime is trying to protect its population from a crisis 
economy, with the help of heavy subsidies. But what happens in Europe if 
we continue to be flooded with cheap goods from the East.

"2024 has been the worst year in the more than twenty years that I have 
been in this business."

Hao, owner of a printing and advertising company in the Chinese capital 
Beijing, told the Financial Times last week. The man did not want to give 
his full name.

China's economy has been struggling with headwinds recently. According to 
official statistics, the economy grew by 5 percent last year. But not 
everyone believes the figures. One of them is Tim Rühlig, a China expert 
and analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies, the EU's 
foreign and security policy think tank. He describes an economy in deep 
crisis.

Rühlig has visited the country for two decades, most recently a few weeks 
ago. During the visit, he spoke to several people with connections to the 
regime. The conclusion is that politicians have not been this worried 
about the economy in twenty years.
China expert Tim Rühlig works at the European Union Institute for Security 
Studies, the EU's foreign and security policy think tank.
China expert Tim Rühlig works at the European Union Institute for Security 
Studies, the EU's foreign and security policy think tank. Photo: Andrea 
Vinson

“China is in an extremely difficult situation. The country is in deep 
shock, optimism is completely gone and many Chinese people do not see the 
future as bright,” says Tim Rühlig.

According to official statistics, unemployment has remained essentially 
flat in the country's largest cities in recent years, at around five 
percent. But Rühlig paints a different picture. According to him, there 
are mass layoffs and state-owned companies have cut employee salaries by 
up to 40 percent.

At the same time, youth unemployment is high. At its peak, more than one 
in five young Chinese between the ages of 16 and 24 was unemployed. 
According to the Financial Times, the country has seen an increase in 
work-related stress, protests, suicides, crime and random violence in 
various places.

- In the past, people who lost their jobs found new jobs. But that is no 
longer the case, says Tim Rühlig.

Chinese prices are falling

Unemployment has left its mark on inflation. In recent years, consumer 
prices have barely risen at all.

At the same time, Chinese producer prices have fallen for three years in a 
row. The producer price is the price that companies charge when they sell 
their products to other companies. Last year, they fell by more than 2 
percent. This is unusual. Normally they tend to rise.

Rühlig explains the development by saying that politicians have actively 
decided to produce more goods than the country actually needs. This is 
done through government subsidies that, according to Rühlig, are nine 
times larger than the corresponding subsidies in Europe.
Photo: Eugene Hoshiko/AP

The idea is that the support will keep goods production going and thus 
prevent unemployment from rising even further. The subsidies have also 
helped China, but have made it more difficult for foreign companies, such 
as Swedish ones, to compete with Chinese companies.

– Chinese companies are flooding the world market with cheap goods that 
are sometimes sold at a lower price than it costs to produce them. Not the 
US, but India, Latin America and Europe have all seen a massive increase 
in exports from China recently, says Rühlig.

China continues to win

In the short term, China's subsidy-related overproduction may benefit 
European consumers because it means cheap goods and low inflation. But 
Chinese policies can also create problems.

– Consumers may like low prices, but if it also means they lose their 
jobs, they probably won’t like it as much. It’s not discussed much, but it 
could really be a disaster for Europe if it were to happen, says Tim 
Rühlig.

In recent years, both the US and Europe have imposed tariffs on Chinese 
goods to protect their own companies and jobs.

But according to SEB’s Asia economist Eugenia Victorino, China has 
continued to gain ground in the global export market. To compensate for 
lower exports to the US, the country has instead focused on other markets, 
including Europe.

Eugenia Victorino works as an economist and Asia strategist at SEB in 
Singapore Photo: SEB

– Despite the tariffs, China’s trade surplus (exports minus imports; 
editor’s note) has more than doubled in the last seven years: from $400 
billion to $1,000 billion, says Victorino.

The reason is not only increased exports but also an active policy to get 
more foreign companies to move production to China.

Victorino recently visited the country and warns of the consequences if US 
President Donald Trump raises trade tariffs on Chinese goods. Europe then 
risks being flooded with even more goods from

from China that would otherwise have been shipped to the other side of the 
Atlantic.

– If and when Trump raises tariffs, China will probably pursue an even 
more aggressive export policy towards Europe and other parts of the world.

At the same time, the Chinese regime continues to do what it can to 
support the economy. Among other things, they have lowered the key 
interest rate and given discounts to households that have replaced old 
appliances with new ones. This year, even more interest rate cuts are 
expected.

China's trade surplus has more than doubled in the past seven years. 
Photo: AP

Tim Rühlig has a negative view of China's future. The country's public 
debt has increased sharply in recent years. He believes that subsidies 
have led to China's loans being larger than what is shown in public 
statistics and that perhaps even the regime does not know how big the debt 
is.

According to him, however, the country's government is quite good at 
resolving crises. The main scenario is that it succeeds this time too. But 
Rühlig does not rule out a significantly worse scenario: that the economy 
crashes.

Tough on – but at a slower pace

According to Rühlig, a crash could have major consequences for the world 
economy, including Sweden. China is the world's second-largest economy and 
importer of goods, and many foreign companies operate in the country.

The most likely outcome, however, is that the subsidies will cause the 
economy to continue to toughen up, but at a slower pace than we are used 
to.

- In a way, the politicians can't afford it, but I still think they will 
continue to subsidize their companies, says Rühlig.

In January, many Chinese celebrate New Year. Relatives reunite in their 
hometowns and bring gifts and red envelopes filled with money. But not 
Hao. The income from his company almost halved last year. Profits fell 
even further.

"At my age, going back means giving red envelopes to the younger 
generation, and I simply don't have the money to do that," he told the 
Financial Times.
How the economy in China and Sweden fared China Sweden
GDP growth 5.0% 0.6%
Inflation 0.2% 2.8%
Unemployment 5.1% 8.4%
Public debt/GDP 84% 34%
Note: Swedish figures are Nordea's latest forecast. China's figures are a 
combination of outcome and forecast
Source: Nordea, IMF

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"DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets "WokieSux282@ud0s4.net" <WokieSux283@ud0s4.net> - 2025-01-27 11:46 -0500
  Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-01-27 20:53 +0000
  Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-01-27 22:23 +0100
    Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets "WokieSux282@ud0s4.net" <WokieSux283@ud0s4.net> - 2025-01-27 18:24 -0500
      Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-01-28 10:24 +0100
        Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets John Ames <commodorejohn@gmail.com> - 2025-01-28 08:16 -0800
          Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-01-28 21:40 +0100
            Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets John Ames <commodorejohn@gmail.com> - 2025-01-28 13:03 -0800
              Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets doctor@doctor.nl2k.ab.ca (The Doctor) - 2025-01-29 01:15 +0000
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets "WokieSux282@ud0s4.net" <WokieSux283@ud0s4.net> - 2025-01-28 22:10 -0500
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-01-29 06:11 +0000
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets "WokieSux282@ud0s4.net" <WokieSux283@ud0s4.net> - 2025-01-29 02:44 -0500
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-01-29 10:19 +0000
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-01-29 15:22 +0100
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets John Ames <commodorejohn@gmail.com> - 2025-01-29 08:13 -0800
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-01-30 09:23 +0000
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-01-30 10:48 +0100
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets Lars Poulsen <lars@cleo.beagle-ears.com> - 2025-01-30 13:44 +0000
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-01-30 15:23 +0000
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets Lars Poulsen <lars@cleo.beagle-ears.com> - 2025-01-30 20:19 +0000
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-01-30 21:05 +0000
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-01-30 22:25 +0100
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-01-30 22:02 +0000
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-01-31 13:40 +0100
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-01-31 13:08 +0000
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-01-31 22:56 +0100
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets "WokieSux282@ud0s4.net" <WokieSux283@ud0s4.net> - 2025-01-30 19:17 -0500
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-01-31 10:14 +0000
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-01-31 13:46 +0100
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets "WokieSux282@ud0s4.net" <WokieSux283@ud0s4.net> - 2025-01-31 16:16 -0500
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-01-31 23:48 +0100
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets "WokieSux282@ud0s4.net" <WokieSux283@ud0s4.net> - 2025-01-31 20:26 -0500
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-02-01 11:30 +0100
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets Charlie Gibbs <cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid> - 2025-02-01 19:49 +0000
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-02-01 20:10 +0000
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-02-02 00:35 +0000
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets "WokieSux282@ud0s4.net" <WokieSux283@ud0s4.net> - 2025-02-01 23:10 -0500
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-02-02 08:25 +0000
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-02-02 10:16 +0000
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets "WokieSux282@ud0s4.net" <WokieSux283@ud0s4.net> - 2025-02-02 20:50 -0500
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-02-02 11:46 +0100
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-02-02 11:11 +0000
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-02-02 21:57 +0100
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-02-02 21:00 +0000
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-02-03 22:51 +0100
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-02-04 06:00 +0000
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-02-04 17:37 +0100
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-02-02 11:43 +0100
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets Charlie Gibbs <cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid> - 2025-02-02 12:53 +0000
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-02-02 20:52 +0000
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-02-02 22:02 +0100
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-02-03 03:47 +0000
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-02-03 22:57 +0100
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets "WokieSux282@ud0s4.net" <WokieSux283@ud0s4.net> - 2025-02-03 22:24 -0500
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-02-04 06:09 +0000
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-02-04 17:33 +0100
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets "WokieSux282@ud0s4.net" <WokieSux283@ud0s4.net> - 2025-02-04 15:03 -0500
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-02-04 21:59 +0100
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets "WokieSux282@ud0s4.net" <WokieSux283@ud0s4.net> - 2025-02-05 01:16 -0500
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-02-05 11:41 +0100
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets not@telling.you.invalid (Computer Nerd Kev) - 2025-02-05 06:54 +1000
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets "WokieSux282@ud0s4.net" <WokieSux283@ud0s4.net> - 2025-02-05 00:58 -0500
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-02-05 11:04 +0100
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-01-30 22:23 +0100
                Investments Lars Poulsen <lars@cleo.beagle-ears.com> - 2025-01-30 23:07 +0000
                Re: Investments The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-01-31 10:12 +0000
                Re: Investments D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-01-31 22:52 +0100
                Re: Investments D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-01-31 13:45 +0100
                Re: Investments The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-01-31 13:10 +0000
                Re: Investments D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-01-31 22:58 +0100
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-01-30 18:47 +0100
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-01-30 21:00 +0000
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-01-30 22:24 +0100
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets John Ames <commodorejohn@gmail.com> - 2025-01-29 08:40 -0800
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-01-29 19:30 +0100
              Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-01-29 15:11 +0100
            Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-01-28 21:29 +0000
              Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-01-29 15:18 +0100
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-01-30 09:17 +0000
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-01-30 10:44 +0100
                Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets Rich <rich@example.invalid> - 2025-01-30 17:39 +0000
    Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-01-28 05:46 +0000
      Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets "WokieSux282@ud0s4.net" <WokieSux283@ud0s4.net> - 2025-01-28 03:27 -0500
        Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets D <nospam@example.net> - 2025-01-28 10:31 +0100
      Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-01-28 08:53 +0000
  Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets Woozy Song <suzyw0ng@outlook.com> - 2025-01-29 19:41 +0800

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