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Re: Beware of the hype

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On 3/26/2017 2:01 PM, richard@microscitech.com wrote:
> Beware of the hype...
>
> I frequently read phys.org, but is it me, or is the hype on robotics
> and, especially, driverless cars, going stratospheric?
>

hype for gov funding


> As regards robotics: I do not have or see anything nearing that will
> vacuum my house in any way. Neither do I believe we have any chance
> of such a device within at least 20 years. We were promised 'Robbie
> the household robot' at least fifty years ago. dop the ironing as
> well. Nowt, absolutely nowt nearing this so far. Washing the dishes?
> Well, the best we have is a dishwasher running a 19th century
> cotton-mill program - a knitting machine really.

agree, robot cost per chore is far too high.

>
> I'm not surprised, it is very difficult (vacuuming the house), and we
> will probably only do it within say 30 years (minimum). But, in the
> next few years, fat chance! A bit like Fusion but harder, and that
> aint easy as we can all see.
>
> So on to driverless cars. This topic has also gone beserk recently.
>
> I note that every trial seems to have a human driver in a driverless
> car! They say there is minimal driver intervention. More like maximal
> press intervention, sucking up to their advertising masters.

they dont want the car to drive over someone, or their little doggie. 
(quite true)

>
> In truth, these driverless cars (paradoxically with a human driver)
> drive mostly in a straight line and stop if an object is close.
> Great. Its called radar, we had it 70+ years ago, or proximity
> sensors as they are called today. There is no intelligence here
> whatsoever is there? I'm open to question, but I don't see it? It's a
> sensor, it measures distance, without any thought or intelligence.

they use a high power infrared lasar radar, about $50,000 each (google) 
that maps the area. it is not eye safe within about 4 feet.

also they integrate the data from various sensors, not that high tech.


>
> I too know one day we will crack it, but it won't happen in the next
> 10 years, and I wish the media would stop listening to all the crap
> hype emanating from Tesla and chums.

Tesla makes its money from Gov Funding.  It has to put out the hype to 
keep the money flowing.


> These guys saw a movie (Iron
> Man), and now some loud mouth with a bizarre name claims all, but it
> is just hype, pure hype, and self promotion of course.

agree.

>
> Why the rant? Well, this year the press, media, governments, seem to
> think it is all going to happen with a few years. This year it seems
> to have all gone ballistic. Yet the technology has most definitely
> not.

what is being ignored is the failure rate, each device you add onto a 
system lowers the reliability, and it will fail earlier.

so with a complex car, 30 more sensors, and a million lines of code,


>
> I can assure you, it ain't going happen any day real soon now.
>
> 50's AI anyone? I'm still waiting...
>
> The message: Beware of the hype.
>
> Richard Miller http://www.urmt.org
>

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Beware of the hype richard@microscitech.com - 2017-03-26 12:01 -0700
  Re: Beware of the hype jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2017-03-26 21:43 +0000
    Re: Beware of the hype benj <nobody@gmail.com> - 2017-03-27 00:46 -0400
      Re: Beware of the hype jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2017-03-27 05:42 +0000
        Re: Beware of the hype benj <benj@nobody.net> - 2017-03-27 16:52 -0400
          Re: Beware of the hype jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2017-03-27 22:11 +0000
  Re: Beware of the hype Serg io <invalid@invalid.com> - 2017-03-26 19:00 -0500
  Re: Beware of the hype Michael J. Strickland <michael06582@comcast.net> - 2017-03-27 03:17 -0400
    Re: Beware of the hype richard@microscitech.com - 2017-03-31 14:10 -0700
      Re: Beware of the hype noTthaTguY <abu.kuanysh05@gmail.com> - 2017-03-31 22:22 -0700
      Re: Beware of the hype richard@microscitech.com - 2017-04-07 12:58 -0700

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