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Re: A 'Scorcher': 2015 Shatters Record As Warmest Year, NASA And NOAA Say

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GogoJF <jfgogo22@yahoo.com> wrote:
> On Wednesday, January 20, 2016 at 7:53:21 PM UTC-6, Kym Horsell wrote:
>> GogoJF <jfgogo22@yahoo.com> wrote:
>> > On Wednesday, January 20, 2016 at 7:30:27 PM UTC-6, GogoJF wrote:
>> >> On Wednesday, January 20, 2016 at 1:46:07 PM UTC-6, ji...@specsol.spam.sux.com wrote:
>> >> > Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> wrote:
>> >> > > A 'Scorcher': 2015 Shatters Record As Warmest Year, NASA And NOAA Say
>> >> > >> http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/01/20/463709775/a-scorcher-2015-shatters-record-as-warmest-year-nasa-and-noaa-say
>> >> > >> NASA is presenting the annual review of global average temperatures
>> >> > >> in conjunction with NOAA, which says that not only did 2015 finish as
>> >> > >> the warmest year on record, it did so by the widest margin ever ?
>> >> > >> nearly a third of one degree Fahrenheit warmer than 2014's average.
>> >> > >> In 2015, the average temperature on land and ocean surfaces around
>> >> > >> the world was "1.62?F (0.90?C) above the 20th century average,"
>> >> > >> according to NOAA.
>> >> > >> That makes 2015 the hottest since instrument records began being kept
>> >> > >> in 1880, beating the record set in 2014 by 0.29?F (0.16?C).
>> >> > >> The Northern Hemisphere saw the biggest rise in land temperatures,
>> >> > >> finishing 2.59 degrees Fahrenheit hotter than the 20th century
>> >> > >> average.
>> >> > The "global average temperature" is all smoke and mirrors and meaningless.
>> >> > -- 
>> >> > Jim Pennino
>> >> Maybe, we just haven't invented the instrument yet?
>> >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age
>> > I guess I will have to ask- what is the range inside which propagates the human most?
>> The max human population clusters around 45N that has an avg temp
>> of ~17C (or maybe ~18C in C21).
>> It's also found at least in Europe that the minimum death rate
>> occurs ~17C.
>> --
>> [W]ith the publication of Marvel et al (2015) (and also 
>> Shindell (2014)), the reason for the outlier results in Otto et al and 
>> similar papers has become much clearer. And once those reasons are taken 
>> into account, those results no longer look like such outliers - reaffirming 
>> the previous consensus and reinforcing the idea that there really is a best 
>> estimate for the sensitivity around 3?C. 
>> -- G Schmidt, Jan 2016
>> <http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/01/marvel-et-al-2015-
>> part-1-reconciling-estimates-of-climate-sensitivity/>
> I think this way all the time.  But, what would be our range of adaptability?


That depends on what kind of death rate and equilibrium population level
you wish to tolerate.

Look at the population distribution by latitude. It trails off
pretty sharpish +-20 deg from the peak.

According to BYU's table of lat by temp 15 deg == ~3C in avg temp.

A 3C change according to Huyen et al (below) might be responsible
for an ~40% increase in death rate from respiratory problems
(if +3C) or ~15% (if -3C).

--
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1240305/
Huyen, Martens, Schrem, Wijenberg, Kunst
May 2001

The impact of heat waves and cold spells on mortality rates in the Dutch 
population.

"....optimum temperature value 
(e.g., average temperature with lowest mortality rate) of 16.5 ..."

"For temperatures above the optimum, mortality increased by 
0.47, 1.86, 12.82, and 2.72% 
for malignant neoplasms, 
cardiovascular disease, 
respiratory diseases, 		<--- the big one
and total mortality, respectively, for each degree Celsius increase above 
the optimum in the preceding month. "

"For temperatures below the optimum, mortality increased 
0.22, 1.69, 5.15, and 1.37%, respectively, 
for each degree Celsius decrease below the optimum in the preceding month."

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A 'Scorcher': 2015 Shatters Record As Warmest Year, NASA And NOAA Say Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2016-01-20 12:20 -0600
  Re: A 'Scorcher': 2015 Shatters Record As Warmest Year, NASA And NOAA Say jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-01-20 19:34 +0000
    Re: A 'Scorcher': 2015 Shatters Record As Warmest Year, NASA And NOAA Say Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2016-01-20 18:19 -0600
      Re: A 'Scorcher': 2015 Shatters Record As Warmest Year, NASA And NOAA Say jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-01-21 01:07 +0000
        Re: A 'Scorcher': 2015 Shatters Record As Warmest Year, NASA And NOAA Say Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2016-01-23 10:42 -0600
          Re: A 'Scorcher': 2015 Shatters Record As Warmest Year, NASA And NOAA Say jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-01-23 19:00 +0000
            Re: A 'Scorcher': 2015 Shatters Record As Warmest Year, NASA And NOAA Say Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2016-01-23 13:11 -0600
    Re: A 'Scorcher': 2015 Shatters Record As Warmest Year, NASA And NOAA Say GogoJF <jfgogo22@yahoo.com> - 2016-01-20 17:30 -0800
      Re: A 'Scorcher': 2015 Shatters Record As Warmest Year, NASA And NOAA Say GogoJF <jfgogo22@yahoo.com> - 2016-01-20 17:39 -0800
        Re: A 'Scorcher': 2015 Shatters Record As Warmest Year, NASA And NOAA Say R Kym Horsell <kym@kymhorsell.com> - 2016-01-21 01:41 +0000
          Re: A 'Scorcher': 2015 Shatters Record As Warmest Year, NASA And NOAA Say GogoJF <jfgogo22@yahoo.com> - 2016-01-20 18:02 -0800
            Re: A 'Scorcher': 2015 Shatters Record As Warmest Year, NASA And NOAA Say GogoJF <jfgogo22@yahoo.com> - 2016-01-20 18:05 -0800
              Re: A 'Scorcher': 2015 Shatters Record As Warmest Year, NASA And NOAA Say GogoJF <jfgogo22@yahoo.com> - 2016-01-20 18:11 -0800
                Re: A 'Scorcher': 2015 Shatters Record As Warmest Year, NASA And NOAA Say GogoJF <jfgogo22@yahoo.com> - 2016-01-20 18:18 -0800
                Re: A 'Scorcher': 2015 Shatters Record As Warmest Year, NASA And NOAA Say GogoJF <jfgogo22@yahoo.com> - 2016-01-20 18:21 -0800
                Re: A 'Scorcher': 2015 Shatters Record As Warmest Year, NASA And NOAA Say GogoJF <jfgogo22@yahoo.com> - 2016-01-20 18:32 -0800
            Re: A 'Scorcher': 2015 Shatters Record As Warmest Year, NASA And NOAA Say R Kym Horsell <kym@kymhorsell.com> - 2016-01-21 02:21 +0000
              Re: A 'Scorcher': 2015 Shatters Record As Warmest Year, NASA And NOAA Say GogoJF <jfgogo22@yahoo.com> - 2016-01-20 18:39 -0800
                Re: A 'Scorcher': 2015 Shatters Record As Warmest Year, NASA And NOAA Say R Kym Horsell <kym@kymhorsell.com> - 2016-01-21 02:50 +0000
                Re: A 'Scorcher': 2015 Shatters Record As Warmest Year, NASA And NOAA Say GogoJF <jfgogo22@yahoo.com> - 2016-01-21 18:27 -0800
                Re: A 'Scorcher': 2015 Shatters Record As Warmest Year, NASA And NOAA Say GogoJF <jfgogo22@yahoo.com> - 2016-01-22 19:11 -0800
                Re: A 'Scorcher': 2015 Shatters Record As Warmest Year, NASA And NOAA Say Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2016-01-22 22:24 -0600
      Re: A 'Scorcher': 2015 Shatters Record As Warmest Year, NASA And NOAA Say GogoJF <jfgogo22@yahoo.com> - 2016-01-20 17:57 -0800
  Re: A 'Scorcher': 2015 Shatters Record As Warmest Year, NASA And NOAA Say Sergio <invalid@invalid.com> - 2016-01-20 19:48 -0600

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