Re: The Maunder Minimum is back! (Maybe. And we probably won’t notice)

From	"Robert Clark" <rgregoryclark@gmSPAMBLOACKail.com>
Newsgroups	sci.physics, sci.astro, sci.space.policy
Subject	Re: The Maunder Minimum is back! (Maybe. And we probably won’t notice)
Date	2015-07-30 11:12 -0400
Organization	A noiseless patient Spider
Message-ID	<mpdeop$b28$1@dont-email.me> (permalink)
References	<V56dnUGSBd3BizXInZ2dnUU7-KsAAAAA@giganews.com> <1vll7c-ri.ln1@mail.specsol.com> <N5OdnXN5GOdA9jXInZ2dnUU7-RUAAAAA@giganews.com>

Cross-posted to 3 groups.

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You cited previously a heat imbalance due to global warming of 0.58 W/m^2. 
But about this recent research, you say the Sun's radiance can vary 0.1%:

> No, we aren't heading into a 'mini ice age'
> http://phys.org/news/2015-07-mini-iceage.html

> Wouldn't it be great if scientists could make their minds up? One
> minute they're telling us our planet is warming up due to human
> activity and we run the risk of potentially devastating environmental
> change. Next, they're warning that the Earth is heading for a mini
> ice age in the next 15 years.
> The latter headline has its roots in a recent press release from the
> UK's National Astronomy Meeting that reported on a study suggesting
> the sun is heading towards a period of very low output.
> Fluctuations in solar activity are not a new discovery. The 11-year
> variation in the number of dark sunspots on the solar surface was
> discovered more than 150 years ago. We now understand that these
> spots are symptoms of increased magnetic activity and occur during
> periods when explosive outbursts of energy and material such as solar
> flares and coronal mass ejections are more frequent.
> The scientists behind the new research have modelled the rhythmic
> variations in solar activity over recent decades and predict that a
> deep low is due between 2030 and 2040. Specifically, the press
> release suggests that this dip in activity could mark a return to
> quiet solar conditions not seen for more than 350 years.
> How is this astronomy story related to an impending ice age? The
> period of low solar activity in the 17th century, known as the
> Maunder minimum, lasted about 70 years and roughly coincided with the
> "Little Ice Age", a era characterised by an abnormally high number of
> harsh winters across the UK and Europe. As almost all newspaper
> stories have reported, during several particularly cold winters the
> Thames froze, enabling frost fairs to be held on the ice.
> Given the apparently strong link between low solar activity and the
> Little Ice Age reported in the press, it's understandable that the
> prospect of a return to Maunder minimum conditions has stimulated a
> lot of interest.
> But the *real issue is just how strong this influence is compared* to
> other factors. The total solar irradiance, a measure of the power
> produced by the sun in the form of electromagnetic radiation, varies
> by only about 0.1% over the course of the 11-year solar cycle.
> Climate scientists have understood this effect for some time and it
> is already built into the computer models that are used to try and
> forecast our climate.

The computer models describing current climate don't plug in a *continual* 
reduction in the solar output by 0.1% obviously because that hasn't been 
seen for 350 years. Note also that since the Sun's irradiance at the Earth 
is about 1,000 W/m^2, a drop of 0.1% would be about 1 W/m^2, about twice as 
large as that heat imbalance you cite.

And just as that heat imbalance over years can build up to increase the 
overall temperature, a *continual* heat drop will combine over several years 
to decrease the overall temperature.

Also, the professor Zharkova presenting this new model of solar activity 
suggests actually the irradiance drop during the Little Ice Age was 3 W/m^2 
and she infers the upcoming drop will be similar to this. See the link to a 
audio interview with her here:

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/201762133/uk-scientist-suggests-a-mini-ice-age-be-upon-us

IF the irradiance drop really is that great that would be far outside what 
the current models consider and would be well above what the current heat 
imbalance is.

Interestingly, at the end of the interview the professor mentions also 
global warming indications seen on other planets. This gives credence to the 
idea of a solar influence in the global warming we are currently seeing.

  Bob Clark

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-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Sam Wormley"  wrote in message 
news:N5OdnXN5GOdA9jXInZ2dnUU7-RUAAAAA@giganews.com...

On 7/16/15 4:57 PM, jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com wrote:
> Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> wrote:
>> The Maunder Minimum is back! (Maybe. And we probably won?t notice)
>
> If it happens, we will notice.
>
> One thing that will be hard to ignore is the screams of the true
> believers in "global warming" which have done so much to destroy
> modern life as they are dragged out into the streets to be tared and
> feathered.

   We will definitely notice the lack of sun spots, and a quieter
   sun. However, the earth is absorbing more energy from the
   sun than it's giving up due to increasing greenhouse gas
   concentrations. The excess energy that the planet is absorbing
   is enormous. The total energy imbalance now is 0.58 ± 0.15 W/m^2.

   Given the resulting warming of the earth, it is doubtful that
   anyone would notice a cooling effect in northern Europe as was
   witnessed several centuries ago, due to an extended solar minimum.

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Thread

The Maunder Minimum is back! (Maybe. And we probably won’t notice) Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-07-16 15:38 -0500
  Re: The Maunder Minimum is back! (Maybe. And we probably won’t notice) jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2015-07-17 04:26 +0000
    Re: The Maunder Minimum is back! (Maybe. And we probably won’t notice) Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-07-17 07:24 -0500
      Re: The Maunder Minimum is back! (Maybe. And we probably won’t notice) Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-07-17 17:19 -0500
        Re: The Maunder Minimum is back! (Maybe. And we probably won?t notice) R Kym Horsell <kym@kymhorsell.com> - 2015-07-17 22:38 +0000
          ah, interesting noTthaTguY <abu.kuanysh05@gmail.com> - 2015-07-17 16:07 -0700
        Re: The Maunder Minimum is back! (Maybe. And we probably won't notice) Mahipal <mahipal7638@gmail.com> - 2015-07-17 16:35 -0700
  Re: The Maunder Minimum is back! (Maybe. And we probably won’t notice) "Robert Clark" <rgregoryclark@gmSPAMBLOACKail.com> - 2015-07-30 11:12 -0400
    Re: The Maunder Minimum is back! (Maybe. And we probably won’t notice) jacob navia <jacob@jacob.remcomp.fr> - 2015-08-02 12:05 +0200
      Re: The Maunder Minimum is back! (Maybe. And we probably won’t notice) HVAC <Mr.HVAC@gmail.com> - 2015-08-02 06:58 -0400
    Re: The Maunder Minimum is back! (Maybe. And we probably won’t notice) dsr@mail.lns.cornell.edu (Daniel S. Riley) - 2015-08-02 12:53 -0400
      Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on jacob navia <jacob@jacob.remcomp.fr> - 2015-08-03 00:12 +0200
        Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com> - 2015-08-02 19:57 -0400
          Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on jacob navia <jacob@jacob.remcomp.fr> - 2015-08-03 10:40 +0200
            Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com> - 2015-08-03 08:03 -0400
              Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on jacob navia <jacob@jacob.remcomp.fr> - 2015-08-03 14:37 +0200
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on benj <nobody@gmail.com> - 2015-08-03 13:28 -0400
              Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on jacob navia <jacob@jacob.remcomp.fr> - 2015-08-03 14:41 +0200
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com> - 2015-08-03 22:40 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on HVAC <Mr.HVAC@gmail.com> - 2015-08-04 06:48 -0400
              Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on jacob navia <jacob@jacob.remcomp.fr> - 2015-08-03 14:51 +0200
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Fred J. McCall <fjmccall@gmail.com> - 2015-08-03 08:18 -0700
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on benj <nobody@gmail.com> - 2015-08-03 13:35 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on jacob navia <jacob@jacob.remcomp.fr> - 2015-08-03 20:37 +0200
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com> - 2015-08-03 22:40 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on benj <nobody@gmail.com> - 2015-08-04 02:51 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on benj <nobody@gmail.com> - 2015-08-04 02:23 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Snidely <snidely.too@gmail.com> - 2015-08-04 00:01 -0700
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on benj <nobody@gmail.com> - 2015-08-04 13:35 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Snidely <snidely.too@gmail.com> - 2015-08-05 03:43 -0700
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on benj <nobody@gmail.com> - 2015-08-07 01:21 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on jacob navia <jacob@jacob.remcomp.fr> - 2015-08-07 12:50 +0200
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on jacob navia <jacob@jacob.remcomp.fr> - 2015-08-07 13:23 +0200
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Snidely <snidely.too@gmail.com> - 2015-08-04 00:43 -0700
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com> - 2015-08-04 08:30 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on benj <nobody@gmail.com> - 2015-08-04 14:07 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Snidely <snidely.too@gmail.com> - 2015-08-05 03:46 -0700
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com> - 2015-08-05 08:51 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on jacob navia <jacob@jacob.remcomp.fr> - 2015-08-05 20:23 +0200
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com> - 2015-08-06 02:04 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Snidely <snidely.too@gmail.com> - 2015-08-05 23:42 -0700
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com> - 2015-08-08 09:25 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Snidely <snidely.too@gmail.com> - 2015-08-10 02:22 -0700
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com> - 2015-08-10 09:34 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on benj <nobody@gmail.com> - 2015-08-10 10:37 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on HVAC <Mr.HVAC@gmail.com> - 2015-08-10 13:55 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Snidely <snidely.too@gmail.com> - 2015-08-12 01:05 -0700
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on jacob navia <jacob@jacob.remcomp.fr> - 2015-08-12 11:17 +0200
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com> - 2015-08-12 05:44 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on "kquirici@yahoo.com" <kquirici@yahoo.com> - 2015-08-12 05:19 -0700
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-08-12 08:05 -0500
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com> - 2015-08-13 02:34 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Snidely <snidely.too@gmail.com> - 2015-08-05 22:23 -0700
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Snidely <snidely.too@gmail.com> - 2015-08-04 00:45 -0700
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on jacob navia <jacob@jacob.remcomp.fr> - 2015-08-04 09:52 +0200
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com> - 2015-08-04 08:55 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Alain Fournier <alain245@videotron.ca> - 2015-08-04 19:28 -0400
      Re: The Maunder Minimum is back! (Maybe. And we probably won’t notice) "Robert Clark" <rgregoryclark@gmSPAMBLOACKail.com> - 2015-08-08 10:56 -0400
        Re: The Maunder Minimum is back! (Maybe. And we probably won?t notice) R Kym Horsell <kym@kymhorsell.com> - 2015-08-08 15:19 +0000
          Re: The Maunder Minimum is back! (Maybe. And we probably won?t notice) Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-08-08 12:07 -0500

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