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Re: What to watch for in utilities this year

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On 2014-02-15 20:22:16 +0000, RS Wood said:

> From the How 'bout keeping the lights on department:
> Title: 5 utility industry trends to watch this year
> Author: Dan Yates & Alex Laskey, Opower
> Date: Sat, 15 Feb 2014 15:00:00 -0500
> Link: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/OmMalik/~3/raHSIb4KhU8/
> Podcast Download URL: 
> http://gigaom2.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/solar-heat-map.jpg
> 
> Last year brought about a number of interesting developments[1] in the energy
> industry. Based on what we saw through the lens of our company’s 90+
> partnerships with utilities across eight countries, here are five key trends
> we’ll be watching closely in 2014.
> 
> 1. Energy efficiency policies continue to spread worldwide
> 
> The introduction of new energy efficiency policies and regulations was
> widespread in 2013 — and that momentum appears poised to continue around the
> world in 2014.
> [image 3][2]
> 
> Honeywell & Opower smart thermstat website
> 
> More than half of US states have now officially enacted quantitative energy
> efficiency targets, and around 30 states offer concrete incentives to
> utilities that drive reductions in energy demand. Yet even more states have
> instituted a framework for severing the tie between utility energy sales and
> revenue, thereby removing the disincentive for utilities to help electric and
> gas customers lower their bills. Mississippi and Louisiana are the latest
> players to join[4] the energy efficiency policy landscape.
> 
> Across the pond, European member states recently formalized their action
> plans to achieve an EU-wide 20 percent reduction in energy consumption by
> 2020, as part of a sweeping Energy Efficiency Directive.
> 
> And in Asia — where it’s forecasted that more than half[5] of annual global
> energy consumption will be consumed with a few decades by 2035 — several
> countries are becoming more aggressive with efficiency policies. Japan,
> Singapore, China, and many developing nations in the region are finding
> efficiency to be one of the cheapest and cleanest energy resources[5] at
> their disposal.
> 
> 2. Natural gas and renewable energy keep chipping away at coal
> 
> America’s energy portfolio is changing. Natural gas — along with clean power
> — is persisting in chipping away at coal’s segment of the US energy
> generation mix.
> [image 7][6]
> 
> Apple’s solar farm next to its data center in Maiden, North Carolina
> 
> Much of this shift is due to the expansion of oil and natural gas production
> here at home. Domestic natural gas production is projected to grow 56 percent
> between 2012 and 2040. And by 2040 — if not earlier — natural gas will
> displace[8] coal as the primary fuel for US electricity generation. The shift
> is already under way: in November, the Tennessee Valley Authority — located
> in one of the top coal-burning states — announced[9] its plans to shutter
> eight coal plants representing 3,300 megawatts of capacity.
> 
> At the same time, the share of renewable energy in the US generation mix
> continues to grow rapidly.
> 
> 3. Innovative utilities are exploring ways to thrive in a
> distributed-generation world
> 
> How should a bakery respond when, each year, more and more of its customers
> want to start baking their own cookies?
> 
> Electric utilities will confront a similar situation in 2014, as tens of
> thousands of additional homes and businesses will start buying less
> electricity from traditional retailers, instead opting to produce power from
> their own solar panels. Rooftop solar installations have reached a furious
> pace in the US: a new system is now brought online every four minutes. And
> all other things equal, an increase in behind-the-meter distributed
> generation (DG) means a decrease in sales and revenue for utilities.
> 
> [image 11][10]
> 
> This DG-driven revenue curtailment could produce a frightening cycle for the
> power industry: reduced sales revenues could lead to less system-wide
> investment, which could lead to a less cost-effective electric grid, which
> could in turn lead to an increase in rates for consumers, and that could
> drive more high-value consumers opting to produce their own power . . . which
> could all lead to further reduced sales revenue for utilities. You get the
> picture. Rinse and repeat, until the days of a centralized utility give way
> to a distributed generation world.
> 
> The challenge for utilities in the coming year and beyond will hinge on
> ensuring that they can constructively participate in this trend, rather than
> sit on the sidelines. An innovative pack of utilities are already seizing
> upon such opportunities, which include utilities’ leasing[12] solar panels to
> ratepayers and creating subsidiaries that install rooftop solar outside their
> regulated service territory.
> 
> In parallel to finding an optimal role in distributed generation, utilities
> are naturally suited to further unlock the potential of large-scale solar. It
> still accounts for the majority of installed solar electric capacity in the
> US, and it is set to take off in a big way[13] in the next few years.
> 
> [image 15][14]
> 
> 4. A critical mass of smart meter infrastructure is paving the way for
> dynamic pricing programs
> 
> In the last 6 years, the number of smart meters in the US has grown more than
> sixfold[16]. There are now more than 46 million smart meters installed
> nationwide — enabling real-time communication[17] of energy data between
> customers and their service providers.
> 
> This trend isn’t about to slow down. Worldwide, the installed base of smart
> meters will triple from 313 million in 2013 to nearly 1.1 billion within ten
> years, according to a November report[18] by Navigant Research[19].
> 
> But while smart meter deployments are becoming widespread, the use of dynamic
> pricing — which better matches energy supply and demand through real-time
> price changes — is not as prevalent. However, some utilities are emerging as
> leaders in applying dynamic pricing to better engage their customers and
> ensure system reliability — just as the concept has picked up steam[20] in
> the transportation sector.
> 
> [image 22][21]
> 
> Programs like Pacific Gas and Electric’s SmartRate[23] and Baltimore Gas and
> Electric’s Smart Energy Rewards[24] are at the forefront of the utility
> industry’s adoption of dynamic pricing mechanisms. Their focus is on using
> time-varying energy prices to keep a grid-friendly balance between
> electricity supply and electricity demand, and on designing
> easy-to-understand rates and rebates that help customers manage their
> consumption in a personalized and energy efficient way.
> 
> 5. Demand response will aid the grid’s transition toward renewable energy
> supply
> 
> Fundamental changes in the electric grid’s supply and demand profile are
> requiring utilities to think creatively about how to manage this transition.
> 
> On the supply side, deep investments in utility-scale renewables like solar
> and wind are bringing into focus the intermittency[25] of these sources. It’s
> no secret that solar electricity production grinds to a halt in the evening,
> and that wind speeds often pick up after electricity consumers have gone to
> sleep. And on the demand side, the rise in electric vehicles — the most
> energy-intensive appliances in the history of the home — could put
> substantial pressure on the grid at certain times of day.
> 
> [image 27][26]
> 
> A mix of smart technologies, customer engagement, and demand response will
> help bring electricity production and consumption into the precise alignment
> that the grid requires to function properly. While innovative energy storage
> approaches may play a future role in managing this exacting dance between
> power supply and demand, other more proven and more cost-effective options
> will be required in the near term.
> 
> The impressive ability of demand response (DR) to reliably stabilize electric
> systems under pressure has been on full display in the past year: DR helped
> keep the lights on during hours of record-breaking summer power demand in New
> York last July, and also during hours of record-breaking winter power demand
> in Texas just this month.
> 
> It appears that nimble DR mechanisms (e.g. dynamic pricing and real-time
> customer engagement) will become increasingly valuable assets for utilities
> as a low-cost strategy to manage not just weather-driven peaks, but also the
> day-to-day patterns associated with a cleaner and smarter electric grid.
> [image 28]
> 
> [image 30][29]
> 
> Related research and analysis from Gigaom Research:
> Subscriber content. Sign up for a free trial[31].
> 
> * What mattered in cleantech in the second quarter of 2013[32]
> * Locating data centers in an energy-constrained world[33]
> * Ups and downs for cleantech in Q1[34]
> 
> [image 36][35][image 37]
> 
> Links:
> [1]: 
> http://blog.opower.com/2013/12/10-energy-numbers-to-remember-from-2013/ 
> (link)
> [2]: http://gigaom2.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/dsc01024.jpg (link)
> [3]: 
> http://gigaom2.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/dsc01024.jpg?w=708&h=470 
> (image)
> [4]: 
> http://blog.opower.com/2013/07/with-new-efficiency-policies-energy-consumption-poised-to-go-south-in-mississippi-and-louisiana/ 
> (link)
> [5]: 
> http://blog.opower.com/2013/08/in-asia-efficiency-proves-to-be-cheapest-and-cleanest-energy-resource/ 
> (link)
> [6]: http://gigaom2.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/applecleanpower5.jpg (link)
> [7]: 
> http://gigaom2.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/applecleanpower5.jpg?w=708&h=470 
> (image)
> [8]: http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=14211&src=email (link)
> [9]: 
> http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/tennessee-valley-authority-to-close-8-coal-fired-power-plants/2013/11/14/be1e4f1e-4d60-11e3-9890-a1e0997fb0c0_story.html 
> (link)
> [10]: 
> http://gigaom2.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/screen-shot-2014-01-15-at-7-35-16-am.png 
> (link)
> [11]: 
> http://gigaom2.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/screen-shot-2014-01-15-at-7-35-16-am.png?w=708 
> (image)
> [12]: 
> http://www.forbes.com/sites/uciliawang/2013/09/10/how-utilities-use-solar-energy-to-woo-customers/ 
> (link)
> [13]: 
> http://qz.com/137263/super-large-scale-solar-installations-are-surging-in-the-us/%20 
> (link)
> [14]: 
> http://gigaompaidcontent.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/ford-focus-electric.jpg 
> (link)
> [15]: 
> http://gigaompaidcontent.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/ford-focus-electric.jpg?w=708&h=454 
> (image)
> [16]: 
> http://blog.opower.com/2013/09/report-smart-meters-in-us-now-generating-more-than-1-billion-data-points-per-day/ 
> (link)
> [17]: 
> http://blog.opower.com/2013/09/a-bigger-better-and-behavioral-solution-to-help-manage-the-power-grid-announcing-behavioral-demand-response-by-opower/ 
> (link)
> [18]: 
> http://www.navigantresearch.com/newsroom/the-installed-base-of-smart-meters-will-surpass-1-billion-by-2022 
> (link)
> [19]: http://www.navigantresearch.com/ (link)
> [20]: 
> http://blog.opower.com/2014/01/the-future-of-dynamic-pricing-what-we-can-learn-from-paying-82-for-a-1-mile-uber-ride/ 
> (link)
> [21]: http://gigaom2.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/opowervefficiency1.jpg (link)
> [22]: 
> http://gigaom2.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/opowervefficiency1.jpg?w=708 
> (image)
> [23]: 
> http://www.pge.com/en/myhome/saveenergymoney/energysavingprograms/smartrate/index.page 
> (link)
> [24]: 
> http://www.bge.com/smartenergy/smart-energy-rewards/pages/default.aspx 
> (link)
> [25]: 
> http://blog.opower.com/2013/09/fowl-play-how-the-utility-industrys-ability-to-outsmart-a-duck-will-define-the-power-grid-of-the-21st-century/%20 
> (link)
> [26]: http://gigaom2.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/solar-heat-map.jpg (link)
> [27]: 
> http://gigaom2.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/solar-heat-map.jpg?w=708 
> (image)
> [28]: 
> http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=gigaom.com&blog=14960843&post=806153&subd=gigaom2&ref=&feed=1 
> (image)
> [29]: 
> http://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?iu=/1008864/Gigaom_RSS_300x250&sz=300x250&c=754397 
> (link)
> [30]: 
> http://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/ad?iu=/1008864/Gigaom_RSS_300x250&sz=300x250&c=754397 
> (image)
> [31]: 
> http://research.gigaom.com/?utm_source=cleantechutm_medium=editorial&utm_campaign=auto3&utm_term=806153+5-utility-industry-trends-to-watch-this-year&utm_content=gigaguest 
> (link)
> [32]: 
> http://research.gigaom.com/report/cleantech-second-quarter-analysis-and-outlook/?utm_source=cleantechutm_medium=editorial&utm_campaign=auto3&utm_term=806153+5-utility-industry-trends-to-watch-this-year&utm_content=gigaguest 
> (link)
> [33]: 
> http://pro.gigaom.com/2012/05/locating-data-centers-in-an-energy-constrained-world/?utm_source=cleantechutm_medium=editorial&utm_campaign=auto3&utm_term=806153+5-utility-industry-trends-to-watch-this-year&utm_content=gigaguest 
> (link)
> [34]: 
> http://pro.gigaom.com/2012/04/green-it-q1-ups-downs-for-evs-quest-for-low-power-server/?utm_source=cleantechutm_medium=editorial&utm_campaign=auto3&utm_term=806153+5-utility-industry-trends-to-watch-this-year&utm_content=gigaguest 
> (link)
> [35]: 
> http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/OmMalik?a=raHSIb4KhU8:5ZqhYuYoiCs:yIl2AUoC8zA 
> (link)
> [36]: http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/OmMalik?d=yIl2AUoC8zA (image)
> [37]: http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/OmMalik/~4/raHSIb4KhU8 (image)

Good post.  Thanks.  One thing that might be an issue that will cause 
people to think twice about their energy choices is the recent 
volatility in the gas / propane markets.  Speculation because of this 
recent cold snap has driven up the cost of heating bills to an 
unbelievable degree.  I know people whose heating bills increased 
tenfold because of the price jump.  Even if folks don't switch to a 
different fuel source, many might be thinking about storing enough fuel 
for a few months on-site instead of getting it from the utilities at 
the daily prices.

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What to watch for in utilities this year RS Wood  <rswood@therandymon.com> - 2014-02-15 20:22 +0000
  Re: What to watch for in utilities this year Oregonian Haruspex <bob_davis_retired@yahoo.com> - 2014-02-17 00:19 -0800

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