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Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on

From Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com>
Newsgroups sci.physics, sci.astro, sci.space.policy
Subject Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on
Date 2015-08-10 09:34 -0400
Organization A noiseless patient Spider
Message-ID <e2ahsats73fuqtorr224clrrfqu57rm3fo@4ax.com> (permalink)
References (7 earlier) <mptkbb$som$1@speranza.aioe.org> <h6u5sad4hp5ickjm38mempreeul5afv18t@4ax.com> <mn.2d8e7df83787931d.127094@snitoo> <om0csa978ae94b4jd4plp0163vqvta4a1f@4ax.com> <mn.508e7df878cfc4c7.127094@snitoo>

Cross-posted to 3 groups.

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On Mon, 10 Aug 2015 02:22:50 -0700, Snidely wrote:

>On Saturday, Wally W. pointed out that ...
>> On Wed, 05 Aug 2015 23:42:37 -0700, Snidely wrote:
>>
>>> Wally W. submitted this gripping article, maybe on Wednesday:
>>>> On Wed, 5 Aug 2015 20:23:47 +0200, jacob navia wrote:
>>>> 
>>>>> Le 05/08/2015 14:51, Wally W. a écrit :
>>>>>> Or look at their wildly conflicting predictions:
>>>>>> <http://www.cfact.org/2013/07/02/climate-models-fail-to-match-real-world-temperatures/>
>>>>> 
>>>>> CFACT
>>>>> 
>>>>> CFACT is an organization financed indirectly by the... Koch brothers 
>>>>> through the "Donors Trust". They refuse to disclose their financing 
>>>>> because... because they have VERY GOOD REASONS to keep it secret.
>>>>> 
>>>>> :-)
>>>>> 
>>>>> Now to the content of that link
>>>>> 
>>>>> They cite (as the sole source of information) a certain Roy Spencer that 
>>>>> says that
>>>>> 
>>>>> <quote>
>>>>> we have compared 73 of these global warming computer models to real 
>>>>> world temperatures, and every single model produces too much warming
>>>>> <end quote>
>>>>> 
>>>>> Note that there isn't a citation of any scientific paper...
>>>>> 
>>>>> Mr Spencer just SAYS SO.
>>>> 
>>>> Well, all you have to do is show those 73 models to be right.
>>>> 
>>>> You *can* show that they *all* got it right, can't you?
>>>> 
>>>> 
>>>>> Who is that guy?
>>>> 
>>>> So far, he is someone you haven't proven to be wrong.
>>>> 
>>>> 
>>>>> See:
>>>>> Climate Misinformer: Roy Spencer
>>>>> https://www.skepticalscience.com/Roy_Spencer_arg.htm
>>>>> 
>>>>> Dr. Spencer is on the board of directors of the George C. Marshall 
>>>>> Institute, a right-wing conservative think tank on scientific issues and 
>>>>> public policy.  He listed as an expert for the Heartland Institute, a 
>>>>> libertarian American public policy think tank.  Dr. Spencer is also 
>>>>> listed as an expert by the International Climate and Environmental 
>>>>> Change Assessment Project (ICECAP), a global warming "skeptic" 
>>>>> organization
>>>> 
>>>> So?
>>>> 
>>>> All you have is ad hom?
>>>> 
>>>> Are you going to show those 73 models to be right?
>>> 
>>> It is not necessary that all 73 models be correct for all inputs.  All 
>>> models are simplifications, and different simplifications can be 
>>> expected to break down in different ways when the simplification is 
>>> inappropriate.  The classical model for a pendulum, with a couple of 
>>> hundred years of understanding behind it, breaks down when the 
>>> displacement input is too large.
>>> 
>>> Comparing the models, and determining how the different inputs affect 
>>> the predictions, helps to determine which inputs we most need to 
>>> understand.  And comparing the models is a very active part of climate 
>>> research.
>>
>> Which says something about the relevance of the "research" to the real
>> world, doesn't it?
>>
>>
>>>> Why not?
>>> 
>>> Because it is a fallacy to insist that they all be right.
>>> 
>>>> Do you agree they are wrong?
>>>> 
>>>> If so, what are you whingeing about?
>>> 
>>> All models are wrong under some conditions.  Knowing when the model is 
>>> right, or knowing what is causing it to be wrong, is as important as 
>>> the actual predictions it makes.  Bitching about models never being 
>>> perfect is asinine.
>>
>> So is looking to models instead of reality.
>>
>> Reality: no warming for 18+ years.
>>
>> The models told us the sky was falling and we were all gonna die.
>
>As you walk across the sinkholes in the tundra, just keep saying "it's 
>still frozen, it's still frozen".

There were times in the past when it wasn't frozen.

Was it a problem then?

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Thread

The Maunder Minimum is back! (Maybe. And we probably won’t notice) Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-07-16 15:38 -0500
  Re: The Maunder Minimum is back! (Maybe. And we probably won’t notice) jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2015-07-17 04:26 +0000
    Re: The Maunder Minimum is back! (Maybe. And we probably won’t notice) Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-07-17 07:24 -0500
      Re: The Maunder Minimum is back! (Maybe. And we probably won’t notice) Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-07-17 17:19 -0500
        Re: The Maunder Minimum is back! (Maybe. And we probably won?t notice) R Kym Horsell <kym@kymhorsell.com> - 2015-07-17 22:38 +0000
          ah, interesting noTthaTguY <abu.kuanysh05@gmail.com> - 2015-07-17 16:07 -0700
        Re: The Maunder Minimum is back! (Maybe. And we probably won't notice) Mahipal <mahipal7638@gmail.com> - 2015-07-17 16:35 -0700
  Re: The Maunder Minimum is back! (Maybe. And we probably won’t notice) "Robert Clark" <rgregoryclark@gmSPAMBLOACKail.com> - 2015-07-30 11:12 -0400
    Re: The Maunder Minimum is back! (Maybe. And we probably won’t notice) jacob navia <jacob@jacob.remcomp.fr> - 2015-08-02 12:05 +0200
      Re: The Maunder Minimum is back! (Maybe. And we probably won’t notice) HVAC <Mr.HVAC@gmail.com> - 2015-08-02 06:58 -0400
    Re: The Maunder Minimum is back! (Maybe. And we probably won’t notice) dsr@mail.lns.cornell.edu (Daniel S. Riley) - 2015-08-02 12:53 -0400
      Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on jacob navia <jacob@jacob.remcomp.fr> - 2015-08-03 00:12 +0200
        Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com> - 2015-08-02 19:57 -0400
          Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on jacob navia <jacob@jacob.remcomp.fr> - 2015-08-03 10:40 +0200
            Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com> - 2015-08-03 08:03 -0400
              Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on jacob navia <jacob@jacob.remcomp.fr> - 2015-08-03 14:37 +0200
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on benj <nobody@gmail.com> - 2015-08-03 13:28 -0400
              Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on jacob navia <jacob@jacob.remcomp.fr> - 2015-08-03 14:41 +0200
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com> - 2015-08-03 22:40 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on HVAC <Mr.HVAC@gmail.com> - 2015-08-04 06:48 -0400
              Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on jacob navia <jacob@jacob.remcomp.fr> - 2015-08-03 14:51 +0200
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Fred J. McCall <fjmccall@gmail.com> - 2015-08-03 08:18 -0700
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on benj <nobody@gmail.com> - 2015-08-03 13:35 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on jacob navia <jacob@jacob.remcomp.fr> - 2015-08-03 20:37 +0200
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com> - 2015-08-03 22:40 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on benj <nobody@gmail.com> - 2015-08-04 02:51 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on benj <nobody@gmail.com> - 2015-08-04 02:23 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Snidely <snidely.too@gmail.com> - 2015-08-04 00:01 -0700
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on benj <nobody@gmail.com> - 2015-08-04 13:35 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Snidely <snidely.too@gmail.com> - 2015-08-05 03:43 -0700
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on benj <nobody@gmail.com> - 2015-08-07 01:21 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on jacob navia <jacob@jacob.remcomp.fr> - 2015-08-07 12:50 +0200
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on jacob navia <jacob@jacob.remcomp.fr> - 2015-08-07 13:23 +0200
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Snidely <snidely.too@gmail.com> - 2015-08-04 00:43 -0700
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com> - 2015-08-04 08:30 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on benj <nobody@gmail.com> - 2015-08-04 14:07 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Snidely <snidely.too@gmail.com> - 2015-08-05 03:46 -0700
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com> - 2015-08-05 08:51 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on jacob navia <jacob@jacob.remcomp.fr> - 2015-08-05 20:23 +0200
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com> - 2015-08-06 02:04 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Snidely <snidely.too@gmail.com> - 2015-08-05 23:42 -0700
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com> - 2015-08-08 09:25 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Snidely <snidely.too@gmail.com> - 2015-08-10 02:22 -0700
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com> - 2015-08-10 09:34 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on benj <nobody@gmail.com> - 2015-08-10 10:37 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on HVAC <Mr.HVAC@gmail.com> - 2015-08-10 13:55 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Snidely <snidely.too@gmail.com> - 2015-08-12 01:05 -0700
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on jacob navia <jacob@jacob.remcomp.fr> - 2015-08-12 11:17 +0200
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com> - 2015-08-12 05:44 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on "kquirici@yahoo.com" <kquirici@yahoo.com> - 2015-08-12 05:19 -0700
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-08-12 08:05 -0500
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com> - 2015-08-13 02:34 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Snidely <snidely.too@gmail.com> - 2015-08-05 22:23 -0700
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Snidely <snidely.too@gmail.com> - 2015-08-04 00:45 -0700
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on jacob navia <jacob@jacob.remcomp.fr> - 2015-08-04 09:52 +0200
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com> - 2015-08-04 08:55 -0400
                Re: BURNING forests and the talk goes on Alain Fournier <alain245@videotron.ca> - 2015-08-04 19:28 -0400
      Re: The Maunder Minimum is back! (Maybe. And we probably won’t notice) "Robert Clark" <rgregoryclark@gmSPAMBLOACKail.com> - 2015-08-08 10:56 -0400
        Re: The Maunder Minimum is back! (Maybe. And we probably won?t notice) R Kym Horsell <kym@kymhorsell.com> - 2015-08-08 15:19 +0000
          Re: The Maunder Minimum is back! (Maybe. And we probably won?t notice) Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-08-08 12:07 -0500

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