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Witch box ?

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  Witch box ? Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> - 2018-10-30 17:24 +0000
    Re: Witch box ? Odd Bodkin <bodkinodd@gmail.com> - 2018-10-30 18:13 +0000
      Re: Witch box ? moroney@world.std.spaamtrap.com (Michael Moroney) - 2018-10-30 19:19 +0000
      Re: Witch box ? moroney@world.std.spaamtrap.com (Michael Moroney) - 2018-10-30 19:21 +0000
        Re: Witch box ? Edward Prochak <edprochak@gmail.com> - 2018-10-30 12:25 -0700
        Re: Witch box ? Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> - 2018-11-05 09:49 +0000
    Re: Witch box ? "Chris M. Thomasson" <invalid_chris_thomasson@invalid.invalid> - 2018-10-30 14:47 -0700
      Re: Witch box ? Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> - 2018-11-01 14:35 +0000
        Re: Witch box ? "Chris M. Thomasson" <invalid_chris_thomasson@invalid.invalid> - 2018-11-05 23:22 -0800
    Re: Witch box ? Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> - 2018-10-31 00:48 +0000
      Go to the door 100 times. Jeff-Relf.Me  @. - 2018-10-30 18:32 -0700
        Re: Go to the door 100 times. Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> - 2018-10-31 05:35 +0000
        Re: Go to the door 100 times. The Starmaker <starmaker@ix.netcom.com> - 2018-10-30 23:33 -0700
          Re: Go to the door 100 times. "Chris M. Thomasson" <invalid_chris_thomasson@invalid.invalid> - 2018-10-31 23:43 -0700
    [OT] Which box? (was: Witch box ?) Thomas 'PointedEars' Lahn <PointedEars@web.de> - 2018-10-31 02:31 +0100
      Re: [OT] Which box? (was: Witch box ?) moroney@world.std.spaamtrap.com (Michael Moroney) - 2018-10-31 03:19 +0000
    Re: Witch box ? yporat08@gmail.com - 2018-10-30 23:50 -0700
    Only the teacher knows the answer eh! Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> - 2018-11-01 07:59 +0000
      Re: Only the teacher knows the answer eh! Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> - 2018-11-01 13:34 +0000
      Re: Only the teacher knows the answer eh! Odd Bodkin <bodkinodd@gmail.com> - 2018-11-01 14:29 +0000
    Re: Witch box ? "Chris M. Thomasson" <invalid_chris_thomasson@invalid.invalid> - 2018-11-06 15:24 -0800
      Re: Witch box ? Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> - 2018-11-08 09:30 +0000
        Re: Witch box ? Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> - 2018-11-08 21:03 +0000
        Re: Witch box ? "Chris M. Thomasson" <invalid_chris_thomasson@invalid.invalid> - 2018-11-08 22:38 -0800
          Re: Witch box ? Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> - 2018-11-09 07:40 +0000
            Re: Witch box ? "Chris M. Thomasson" <invalid_chris_thomasson@invalid.invalid> - 2018-11-08 23:42 -0800
    Re: Witch box ? Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> - 2018-11-12 17:01 +0000

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#710392 — Witch box ?

                " TRICK or TREAT ? "

The math teacher came to the door with a box containing sweets,
and handed it to the children. "Wait there a moment" he said.

A moment later he reappeared at the door carrying a second box.
"Now you must choose which box you want." he says "I can tell you
that there is a 50% chance that this box has twice as many sweets,
but there is a 50% chance that it only has half as many sweets as
that first box, so which box do you want, the first box, or the
second box ?".

Witch box should
  the children choose ?
(Assuming they wish to maximize their sweet collection eh!)

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#710412

Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> wrote:
>                 " TRICK or TREAT ? "
> 
> The math teacher came to the door with a box containing sweets,
> and handed it to the children. "Wait there a moment" he said.
> 
> A moment later he reappeared at the door carrying a second box.
> "Now you must choose which box you want." he says "I can tell you
> that there is a 50% chance that this box has twice as many sweets,
> but there is a 50% chance that it only has half as many sweets as
> that first box, so which box do you want, the first box, or the
> second box ?".
> 
> Witch box should
>  the children choose ?
> (Assuming they wish to maximize their sweet collection eh!)
> 

AKA the Monty Hall problem. Marilyn vos Savant has a nice write-up. 

-- 
Odd Bodkin — Maker of fine toys, tools, tables

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#710420

Odd Bodkin <bodkinodd@gmail.com> writes:

>Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> wrote:
>>                 " TRICK or TREAT ? "
>> 
>> The math teacher came to the door with a box containing sweets,
>> and handed it to the children. "Wait there a moment" he said.
>> 
>> A moment later he reappeared at the door carrying a second box.
>> "Now you must choose which box you want." he says "I can tell you
>> that there is a 50% chance that this box has twice as many sweets,
>> but there is a 50% chance that it only has half as many sweets as
>> that first box, so which box do you want, the first box, or the
>> second box ?".
>> 
>> Witch box should
>>  the children choose ?
>> (Assuming they wish to maximize their sweet collection eh!)
>> 

>AKA the Monty Hall problem. Marilyn vos Savant has a nice write-up. 

The Monty Hall problem was different. In it there were 3 doors (boxes),
one had a car (candy) and two had a goat (empty).  The contestant would
choose one door, then Monty would open a second door and reveal a goat,
then ask the contestant whether they want to keep the original door or
switch for the third door. 

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#710421

Odd Bodkin <bodkinodd@gmail.com> writes:

>AKA the Monty Hall problem. Marilyn vos Savant has a nice write-up. 

how weird. While typing in my last message the guy in the next cube starts 
talking about the Monty Hall problem!  After not thinking of it for maybe
10 years...

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#710423

On Tuesday, October 30, 2018 at 3:21:24 PM UTC-4, Michael Moroney wrote:
> Odd Bodkin <bodkinodd@gmail.com> writes:
> 
> >AKA the Monty Hall problem. Marilyn vos Savant has a nice write-up. 
> 
> how weird. While typing in my last message the guy in the next cube starts 
> talking about the Monty Hall problem!  After not thinking of it for maybe
> 10 years...

were you quantumly entangled?  8^)
Ed

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#711614

On 30/10/2018 19:21, Michael Moroney wrote:
> Odd Bodkin <bodkinodd@gmail.com> writes:
> 
>> AKA the Monty Hall problem. Marilyn vos Savant has a nice write-up.
> 
> how weird. While typing in my last message the guy in the next cube starts
> talking about the Monty Hall problem!  After not thinking of it for maybe
> 10 years...
> 

Spooky eh!

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#710438

On 10/30/2018 10:24 AM, Keith Stein wrote:
>                 " TRICK or TREAT ? "
> 
> The math teacher came to the door with a box containing sweets,
> and handed it to the children. "Wait there a moment" he said.
> 
> A moment later he reappeared at the door carrying a second box.
> "Now you must choose which box you want." he says "I can tell you
> that there is a 50% chance that this box has twice as many sweets,
> but there is a 50% chance that it only has half as many sweets as
> that first box, so which box do you want, the first box, or the
> second box ?".
> 
> Witch box should
>   the children choose ?
> (Assuming they wish to maximize their sweet collection eh!)

Would a gambler flip the coin? Think if a kid weighed the first box and 
said "Ahh, that's good enough." ;^)

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#710735

On 30/10/2018 21:47, Chris M. Thomasson wrote:
> On 10/30/2018 10:24 AM, Keith Stein wrote:
>>                 " TRICK or TREAT ? "
>>
>> The math teacher came to the door with a box containing sweets,
>> and handed it to the children. "Wait there a moment" he said.
>>
>> A moment later he reappeared at the door carrying a second box.
>> "Now you must choose which box you want." he says "I can tell you
>> that there is a 50% chance that this box has twice as many sweets,
>> but there is a 50% chance that it only has half as many sweets as
>> that first box, so which box do you want, the first box, or the
>> second box ?".
>>
>> Witch box should
>>   the children choose ?
>> (Assuming they wish to maximize their sweet collection eh!)
> 
> Would a gambler flip the coin? Think if a kid weighed the first box and 
> said 
                  "Ahh, that's good enough."



if you, Mr. Thomasson, are recommending that the children should be 
content, (i.e. to 'STICK'), then indeed i think you were in fact the
ONLY ONE, who gave those children ( at the door on HALLOWEEN NIGHT ),
SOUND ADVICE
   eh!
> ;^)

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#711815

On 11/1/2018 7:35 AM, Keith Stein wrote:
> On 30/10/2018 21:47, Chris M. Thomasson wrote:
>> On 10/30/2018 10:24 AM, Keith Stein wrote:
>>>                 " TRICK or TREAT ? "
>>>
>>> The math teacher came to the door with a box containing sweets,
>>> and handed it to the children. "Wait there a moment" he said.
>>>
>>> A moment later he reappeared at the door carrying a second box.
>>> "Now you must choose which box you want." he says "I can tell you
>>> that there is a 50% chance that this box has twice as many sweets,
>>> but there is a 50% chance that it only has half as many sweets as
>>> that first box, so which box do you want, the first box, or the
>>> second box ?".
>>>
>>> Witch box should
>>>   the children choose ?
>>> (Assuming they wish to maximize their sweet collection eh!)
>>
>> Would a gambler flip the coin? Think if a kid weighed the first box 
>> and said 
>                   "Ahh, that's good enough."
> 
> 
> 
> if you, Mr. Thomasson, are recommending that the children should be 
> content, (i.e. to 'STICK'), then indeed i think you were in fact the
> ONLY ONE, who gave those children ( at the door on HALLOWEEN NIGHT ),
> SOUND ADVICE
>    eh!

Thank you Keith. :^)

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#710452

On 30/10/2018 20:34, rotchm wrote:
> On Tuesday, October 30, 2018 at 1:24:11 PM UTC-4, Keith Stein wrote:
>>                  " TRICK or TREAT ?"
>>
>> The math teacher came to the door with a box containing sweets,
>> and handed it to the children. "Wait there a moment" he said.
>>
>> A moment later he reappeared at the door carrying a second box.
>> "Now you must choose which box you want." he says "I can tell you
>> that there is a 50% chance that this box has twice as many sweets,
>> but there is a 50% chance that it only has half as many sweets as
>> that first box, so which box do you want, the first box, or the
>> second box ?".
>>
>> Witch box should the children choose?

> A simple & direct problem. No 'catches' in there.
> The expectation is higher for the switch. 

   "Oh thank you Clever Rotchm" said the children,
   "We thought maybe there WAS a 'catch' in there eh!"

   So the children swapped their box for the second box.
   Then the math teacher, holding up the first box said

    "There is a 50% chance that this box has twice as many sweets,
     but there is a 50% chance that it only has half as many sweets as
     that second box, so which box do you want, the first box, or the
     second box ?".

"OH WHAT SHOULD WE DO NOW, CLEVER ROTCHM ????" said the children.

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#710458 — Go to the door 100 times.

The solution is to go to the door 100 times.

It doesn't matter if you (randomly) take the first box or not;
it all evens out in the end, after 100 visits.

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#710494 — Re: Go to the door 100 times.

On 31/10/2018 01:32, Jeff-Relf.Me@. wrote:
> The solution is to go to the door 100 times.
> 
> It doesn't matter if you (randomly) take the first box or not;
> it all evens out in the end, after 100 visits.


Be careful Jeff. This is Halloween,
  and this is a 'tricky problem.............

Maybe it DOES matter, and maybe it does NOT.
Only the math teacher would know, for sure,
and he ain't tellin'. At least NOT YET eh!

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#710499 — Re: Go to the door 100 times.

Jeff-Relf.Me, @. wrote:
> 
> The solution is to go to the door 100 times.
> 
> It doesn't matter if you (randomly) take the first box or not;
> it all evens out in the end, after 100 visits.


you can throw a dice a 100 times or
you can throw 100 dice once.

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#710699 — Re: Go to the door 100 times.

On 10/30/2018 11:33 PM, The Starmaker wrote:
> Jeff-Relf.Me, @. wrote:
>>
>> The solution is to go to the door 100 times.
>>
>> It doesn't matter if you (randomly) take the first box or not;
>> it all evens out in the end, after 100 visits.
> 
> 
> you can throw a dice a 100 times or
> you can throw 100 dice once.
> 

;^)

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#710457 — [OT] Which box? (was: Witch box ?)

Keith Stein amok-crossposted to sci.physics.relativity and sci.physics, even
though the charter explicitly says not to do that:
>                 " TRICK or TREAT ? "
>
> The math teacher […]
>
> Witch box should
>   the children choose ?
> (Assuming they wish to maximize their sweet collection eh!)

You are in violation of the charters of sci.physics.ALL, and you are wildly
off topic.  Subject like these belong in sci.math instead.

Physics uses mathematics only as a tool, not to solve purely mathematical
problems like this.  Therefore, any mathematical subject that has no
relation to physics is off topic.  This one certainly has no relation to
physics.

Also, the question word is spelled “_which_”.  And it is “sweets collection”
or “collection of sweets”; in British English, “sweet” is a noun indeed, but
as a collection always contains more than one piece, you have to use the
plural form.  Finally, (different to French) in English a sentence ending
mark and a closing quotation mark are not preceded by whitespace, and an
opening quotation mark is not followed by whitespace.

F’up2 sci.math

-- 
PointedEars

Twitter: @PointedEars2
Please do not cc me. / Bitte keine Kopien per E-Mail.

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#710467 — Re: [OT] Which box? (was: Witch box ?)

Thomas 'PointedEars' Lahn <PointedEars@web.de> writes:

>Keith Stein amok-crossposted to sci.physics.relativity and sci.physics, even
>though the charter explicitly says not to do that:

[snip whining]

>Also, the question word is spelled “_which_

Are you really that stuck up that you don't even get his joke?
Hint: Halloween...

[snip more whining]

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#710500

On Tuesday, October 30, 2018 at 7:24:12 PM UTC+2, Keith Stein wrote:
> " TRICK or TREAT ? "
> 
> The math teacher came to the door with a box containing sweets,
> and handed it to the children. "Wait there a moment" he said.
> 
> A moment later he reappeared at the door carrying a second box.
> "Now you must choose which box you want." he says "I can tell you
> that there is a 50% chance that this box has twice as many sweets,
> but there is a 50% chance that it only has half as many sweets as
> that first box, so which box do you want, the first box, or the
> second box ?".
> 
> Witch box should
>   the children choose ?
> (Assuming they wish to maximize their sweet collection eh!)
=============================
That is what I always say 

unlike a serious physicists ))!!!!!!!
unfortunate to us

 a mathematician can 
turn  a mouse to a cat
and  immediately
vice verse !!!!

IT DEPENDSON
HOW MUCH HE   IS PAIED in cash   …(:-)
directly or  indirectly   ** from  one side *

and that is out main   problem
even just here 
in this n g !!!!!
=======
TIA
Y.Porat
============================================

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#710703 — Only the teacher knows the answer eh!

On 30/10/2018 17:24, Keith Stein wrote:
>                 " TRICK or TREAT ? "
> 
> The math teacher came to the door with a box containing sweets,
> and handed it to the children. "Wait there a moment" he said.
> 
> A moment later he reappeared at the door carrying a second box.
> "Now you must choose which box you want." he says "I can tell you
> that there is a 50% chance that this box has twice as many sweets,
> but there is a 50% chance that it only has half as many sweets as
> that first box, so which box do you want, the first box, or the
> second box ?".
> 
> Witch box should
>   the children choose ?

It may be that the best strategy is to swap once, and only once,
as recommended by Rotchm:

     "The expectation is higher for the switch."rotchm

This would indeed be the case if he had prepared a box with 'n' sweets
to hand initially to the children. He had also prepared a second box 
with '2n' sweets,and a third box with 'n/2' sweets, which he shuffles
so that he himself does not know which has '2n' and which has 'n/2'.


However it could also be true that:

  "It doesn't matter if you (randomly) take the first box or not;
   it all evens out in the end, after 100 visits." Jeff Relf

This would indeed be the case is he had prepared just two boxes,
one with 'n' sweets, and one with '2n' sweets, which again he
shuffles, so that he doesn't know witch is witch, and this would
be easier eh!

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#710714 — Re: Only the teacher knows the answer eh!

On 01/11/2018 07:59, Keith Stein wrote:
> On 30/10/2018 17:24, Keith Stein wrote:
>>                 " TRICK or TREAT ? "
>>
>> The math teacher came to the door with a box containing sweets,
>> and handed it to the children. "Wait there a moment" he said.
>>
>> A moment later he reappeared at the door carrying a second box.
>> "Now you must choose which box you want." he says "I can tell you
>> that there is a 50% chance that this box has twice as many sweets,
>> but there is a 50% chance that it only has half as many sweets as
>> that first box, so which box do you want, the first box, or the
>> second box ?".
>>
>> Witch box should
>>   the children choose ?
> 
> It may be that the best strategy is to swap once, and only once,
> as recommended by Rotchm:
> 
>      "The expectation is higher for the switch."rotchm
> 
> This would indeed be the case if he had prepared a box with 'n' sweets
> to hand initially to the children. He had also prepared a second box 
> with '2n' sweets,and a third box with 'n/2' sweets, which he shuffles
> so that he himself does not know which has '2n' and which has 'n/2'.
> 
> 
> However it could also be true that:
> 
>   "It doesn't matter if you (randomly) take the first box or not;
>    it all evens out in the end, after 100 visits." Jeff Relf
> 
> This would indeed be the case is he had prepared just two boxes,
> one with 'n' sweets, and one with '2n' sweets, which again he
> shuffles, so that he doesn't know witch is witch, and this would
> be easier eh!


I should add,
that in the way the teacher did actually did set it up,
both Rotchm and Jeff were BOTH    WRONG            eh!

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#710727 — Re: Only the teacher knows the answer eh!

Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> wrote:
> On 30/10/2018 17:24, Keith Stein wrote:
>>                " TRICK or TREAT ? "
>> 
>> The math teacher came to the door with a box containing sweets,
>> and handed it to the children. "Wait there a moment" he said.
>> 
>> A moment later he reappeared at the door carrying a second box.
>> "Now you must choose which box you want." he says "I can tell you
>> that there is a 50% chance that this box has twice as many sweets,
>> but there is a 50% chance that it only has half as many sweets as
>> that first box, so which box do you want, the first box, or the
>> second box ?".
>> 
>> Witch box should
>>  the children choose ?
> 
> It may be that the best strategy is to swap once, and only once,
> as recommended by Rotchm:
> 
>     "The expectation is higher for the switch."rotchm
> 
> This would indeed be the case if he had prepared a box with 'n' sweets
> to hand initially to the children. He had also prepared a second box 
> with '2n' sweets,and a third box with 'n/2' sweets, which he shuffles
> so that he himself does not know which has '2n' and which has 'n/2'.
> 
> 
> However it could also be true that:
> 
>  "It doesn't matter if you (randomly) take the first box or not;
>   it all evens out in the end, after 100 visits." Jeff Relf
> 
> This would indeed be the case is he had prepared just two boxes,
> one with 'n' sweets, and one with '2n' sweets, which again he
> shuffles, so that he doesn't know witch is witch, and this would
> be easier eh!
> 
> 
> 

Not the only understanding of the problem, though. There could be just two
boxes, one with N treats and one with 2N treats. The boxes are scrambled by
the math teacher so he doesn’t know which one was offered first. 

-- 
Odd Bodkin — Maker of fine toys, tools, tables

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