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Statistical technique that puts the fine details back into computer climate model simulations

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  Statistical technique that puts the fine details back into computer climate model simulations Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2016-06-07 11:31 -0500
    Re: Statistical technique that puts the fine details back into computer climate model simulations Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com> - 2016-06-07 13:44 -0400
      Re: Statistical technique that puts the fine details back into computer climate model simulations Poutnik <poutnik4nntp@gmail.com> - 2016-06-08 08:05 +0200
    Re: Statistical technique that puts the fine details back into computer climate model simulations Sergio <invalid@invalid.com> - 2016-06-07 13:12 -0500
      Re: Statistical technique that puts the fine details back into computer climate model simulations Poutnik <poutnik4nntp@gmail.com> - 2016-06-08 08:11 +0200
    Re: Statistical technique that puts the fine details back into computer climate model simulations jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-06-07 18:12 +0000
    Re: Statistical technique that puts the fine details back into computer climate model simulations "Ross A. Finlayson" <ross.finlayson@gmail.com> - 2016-06-07 23:32 -0700

#583581 — Statistical technique that puts the fine details back into computer climate model simulations

Statistical technique that puts the fine details back into computer 
climate model simulations
> http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/2016/06/07/climate-model/


> Abstract
>
> Quasilinear theory is often utilized to approximate the dynamics of
> fluids exhibiting significant interactions between mean flows and
> eddies. We present a generalization of quasilinear theory to include
> dynamic mode interactions on the large scales. This generalized
> quasilinear (GQL) approximation is achieved by separating the state
> variables into large and small zonal scales via a spectral filter
> rather than by a decomposition into a formal mean and fluctuations.
> Nonlinear interactions involving only small zonal scales are then
> removed. The approximation is conservative and allows for scattering
> of energy between small-scale modes via the large scale (through
> nonlocal spectral interactions). We evaluate GQL for the paradigmatic
> problems of the driving of large-scale jets on a spherical surface
> and on the beta plane and show that it is accurate even for a small
> number of large-scale modes. As GQL is formally linear in the small
> zonal scales, it allows for the closure of the system and can be
> utilized in direct statistical simulation schemes that have proved an
> attractive alternative to direct numerical simulation for many
> geophysical and astrophysical problems.
>
> Citation
>
> J. B. Marston, G. P. Chini, and S. M. Tobias; Generalized Quasilinear
> Approximation: Application to Zonal Jets; Physical Review Letters,
> 116, 214501, doi 10.1103/PhysRevLett.116.214501.
>


-- 

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#583604

On Tue, 7 Jun 2016 11:31:32 -0500, Sam Wormley wrote:

>Statistical technique that puts the fine details back into computer 
>climate model simulations

Put *back* into computer climate model simulations?

Was that an ad lib by you, Sam?

When were the fine details there before.

Is this yet another example of why you so seldom post things you
composed yourself?

It seems you want to be seen on this group, but not heard.

An ad lib like this could be reason for the latter.

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#583767

Dne 07/06/2016 v 19:44 Wally W. napsal(a):
> On Tue, 7 Jun 2016 11:31:32 -0500, Sam Wormley wrote:
> 
>> Statistical technique that puts the fine details back into computer 
>> climate model simulations
> 
> Put *back* into computer climate model simulations?
> 
> Was that an ad lib by you, Sam?
> 
> When were the fine details there before.

If you have objections, raise them at the source.

> Is this yet another example of why you so seldom post things you
> composed yourself?
> 
J. B. Marston, G. P. Chini, and S. M. Tobias; Generalized Quasilinear
Approximation: Application to Zonal Jets; Physical Review Letters,
116, 214501, doi 10.1103/PhysRevLett.116.214501.


-- 
Poutnik ( The Pilgrim, Der Wanderer )
Knowledge makes great men humble, but small men arrogant.

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#583617

On 6/7/2016 11:31 AM, Sam Wormley wrote:
> Statistical technique that puts the fine details back into computer
> climate model simulations
>> http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/2016/06/07/climate-model/
>
>

from the paper;

“Cloud formation is seen as the largest source of uncertainty in climate
models right now,” Marston said. “There are famous examples where
different climate models that have different ways of dealing with the
clouds give you qualitatively different results. In a warming world, one
model might produce more clouds and another might produce fewer.”

(so the *science is unsettled*!)

"By averaging those cloud dynamics and then simulating them in the
models, it might be possible to reduce some of that uncertainty, Marston
said."

=>> no, no, no!  you want *an answer* so you "average" one out.

          AVERAGING DOES NOT REDUCE UNCERTAINTY.

  Averaging is a mathematical process done on a "post measured" data set 
to arrive at a single number. It is a poor descriptor, especially with 
large varances, ie uncertianty.

SO they are proposing to AVERAGE OUT the FINE DETAILS of computer 
climate change global worming models to get the answer paid for.

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#583768

Dne 07/06/2016 v 20:12 Sergio napsal(a):

> 
> "By averaging those cloud dynamics and then simulating them in the
> models, it might be possible to reduce some of that uncertainty, Marston
> said."
> 
> =>> no, no, no!  you want *an answer* so you "average" one out.

The same approach is used to average different runs
of numeric weather forecast predictions.



>           AVERAGING DOES NOT REDUCE UNCERTAINTY.
> 
>   Averaging is a mathematical process done on a "post measured" data set 
> to arrive at a single number. It is a poor descriptor, especially with 
> large varances, ie uncertianty.

Furtunately, NMR specialists does not know it, averaging their spectra.



-- 
Poutnik ( The Pilgrim, Der Wanderer )
Knowledge makes great men humble, but small men arrogant.

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#583620

Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> wrote:
> Statistical technique that puts the fine details back into computer 
> climate model simulations

Yet another attempt to get the models to match reality; one day it
may even be successful.


-- 
Jim Pennino

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#583770

On Tuesday, June 7, 2016 at 9:31:36 AM UTC-7, Sam Wormley wrote:
> Statistical technique that puts the fine details back into computer 
> climate model simulations
> > http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/2016/06/07/climate-model/
> 
> 
> > Abstract
> >
> > Quasilinear theory is often utilized to approximate the dynamics of
> > fluids exhibiting significant interactions between mean flows and
> > eddies. We present a generalization of quasilinear theory to include
> > dynamic mode interactions on the large scales. This generalized
> > quasilinear (GQL) approximation is achieved by separating the state
> > variables into large and small zonal scales via a spectral filter
> > rather than by a decomposition into a formal mean and fluctuations.
> > Nonlinear interactions involving only small zonal scales are then
> > removed. The approximation is conservative and allows for scattering
> > of energy between small-scale modes via the large scale (through
> > nonlocal spectral interactions). We evaluate GQL for the paradigmatic
> > problems of the driving of large-scale jets on a spherical surface
> > and on the beta plane and show that it is accurate even for a small
> > number of large-scale modes. As GQL is formally linear in the small
> > zonal scales, it allows for the closure of the system and can be
> > utilized in direct statistical simulation schemes that have proved an
> > attractive alternative to direct numerical simulation for many
> > geophysical and astrophysical problems.
> >
> > Citation
> >
> > J. B. Marston, G. P. Chini, and S. M. Tobias; Generalized Quasilinear
> > Approximation: Application to Zonal Jets; Physical Review Letters,
> > 116, 214501, doi 10.1103/PhysRevLett.116.214501.
> >
> 
> 

Flow models with eddies and vortices still have flow.  One idea to 
model the flow is with magic squares, because the values differ in 
a lattice grid, but they still add up to the same given value from 
any direction.

So, there are numerical properties of various constant rate systems, 
with the complexity they can have while remaining constant rate, that 
could be developed to illustrate these as usual properties of natural 
systems.

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