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Modelling the dynamics of avalanche outbreaks

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  Modelling the dynamics of avalanche outbreaks Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-09-18 08:32 -0500
    Re: Modelling the dynamics of avalanche outbreaks jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2015-09-18 17:55 +0000

#521797 — Modelling the dynamics of avalanche outbreaks

Modelling the dynamics of avalanche outbreaks
> http://phys.org/news/2015-09-dynamics-avalanche-outbreaks.html


> The 1918 outbreak of Spanish flu was so unlike other pandemics that
> it is analogous to a massive natural disaster. The H1N1 virus
> infected an estimated 500 million people and killed 100 million by
> some estimates. And while ordinary flu outbreaks primarily endanger
> the infirm old or very young, Spanish flu was more likely to kill
> healthy young adults because it caused an overreaction of the immune
> system, known as a cytokine storm, which is stronger in healthy
> individuals. Weakened or compromised immune systems, unable to mount
> such strong overreactions, were likelier to result in survival.

> What separates avalanche outbreaks from the transitory prevalence of
> a contagious agent? One of the main reasons that Spanish flu was so
> contagious was its co-epidemic of bacterial pneumonia. While most
> single-agent contagion networks exhibit a continuous transition
> described as a "percolation transition," more violent spreading can
> occur when the participating agents are of more than one type. A
> modern example is the concurrence of HIV/AIDS with a host of
> pathogenic diseases including tuberculosis, syphilis and hepatitis.
> Recently, a group of researchers in Germany reported in Nature
> Physics a mechanistic model that attempts to explain contagion
> processes involving inter-agent cooperation.

> Because it's a network model, the authors note that their findings
> are applicable to catastrophic occurrences in other domains,
> including financial contagions or cascading power blackouts. They
> point to a pair of influences: Positive-feedback interactions can
> impose instability on large systems. And the underlying network
> medium (i.e., a networked group of people, or of power transformers)
> strengthen or impair the cooperation between the interacting agents.
> "The outbreak profile is thus shaped by both agent-agent and
> agent-network interactions," the authors write.




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#521826

Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> wrote:
> Modelling the dynamics of avalanche outbreaks
>> http://phys.org/news/2015-09-dynamics-avalanche-outbreaks.html
> 
> 
>> The 1918 outbreak of Spanish flu was so unlike other pandemics that

And of course the close quarters and massive troop movements of
World War I along with all the other havoc had nothing to do with it.

This is epidemiology and has little to nothing to do with physics,
spamming shit head.



-- 
Jim Pennino

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