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Mann Paper: Humans Drive Wildfires

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  Mann Paper: Humans Drive Wildfires Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2016-05-07 15:02 -0500
    Re: Mann Paper: Humans Drive Wildfires jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2016-05-07 20:43 +0000
    Re: Mann Paper: Humans Drive Wildfires Sergio <invalid@invalid.com> - 2016-05-07 17:30 -0500
    Re: Mann Paper: Humans Drive Wildfires Wally W. <ww84wa@aim.com> - 2016-05-07 18:42 -0400
    Re: Mann Paper: Humans Drive Wildfires James McGinn <jimmcginn9@gmail.com> - 2016-05-07 23:48 -0700

#576250 — Mann Paper: Humans Drive Wildfires

Mann Paper: Humans Drive Wildfires
> http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/2016/04/28/wildfires/


> Not just climate change: study finds human activity is a major factor
> driving wildfires. Study weighs human influence in wildfire forecast
> through 2050. The researchers systematically looked at human
> behaviors and climate change together, which is unique and rarely
> attempted on an area of land this large.

> Abstract
>
> The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout
> California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships
> between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and
> expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and
> process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous
> uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with
> previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to
> fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess
> the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state’s fire
> regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that
> integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant
> communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step.
> Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to
> fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that
> the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area
> expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic
> bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate
> models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in
> rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid
> inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of
> human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that
> comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both
> anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of
> substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for
> California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of
> human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our
> model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least
> 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many
> models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic
> change.
>
> Citation
>
> Michael L. Mann , Enric Batllori, Max A. Moritz, Eric K. Waller,
> Peter Berck, Alan L. Flint, Lorraine E. Flint, and Empale Dolfi;
> Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models:
> Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in
> California; Plus One Published: April 28, 2016 doi:
> 10.1371/journal.pone.0153589
>

-- 

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#576263

Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> wrote:
> Mann Paper: Humans Drive Wildfires

Wildfires have been occuring for millions or years.


-- 
Jim Pennino

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#576308

On 5/7/2016 3:02 PM, Sam Wormley wrote:
> Mann Paper: Humans Drive Wildfires

>
>
>> Not just climate change: study finds human activity is a major factor
>> driving wildfires.


wind drives wildfires.

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#576323

On Sat, 7 May 2016 15:02:36 -0500, Sam Wormley wrote:

>Mann Paper: Humans Drive Wildfires

<yawn>

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#576387

On Saturday, May 7, 2016 at 1:02:39 PM UTC-7, Sam Wormley wrote:
> Mann Paper: Humans Drive Wildfires
> > http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/2016/04/28/wildfires/
> 
> 
> > Not just climate change: study finds human activity is a major factor
> > driving wildfires. Study weighs human influence in wildfire forecast
> > through 2050. The researchers systematically looked at human
> > behaviors and climate change together, which is unique and rarely
> > attempted on an area of land this large.
> 
> > Abstract
> >
> > The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout
> > California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships
> > between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and
> > expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and
> > process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous
> > uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with
> > previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to
> > fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess
> > the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire
> > regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that
> > integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant
> > communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step.
> > Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to
> > fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that
> > the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area
> > expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic
> > bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate
> > models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in
> > rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid
> > inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of
> > human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that
> > comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both
> > anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of
> > substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for
> > California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of
> > human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our
> > model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least
> > 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many
> > models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic
> > change.
> >
> > Citation
> >
> > Michael L. Mann , Enric Batllori, Max A. Moritz, Eric K. Waller,
> > Peter Berck, Alan L. Flint, Lorraine E. Flint, and Empale Dolfi;
> > Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models:
> > Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in
> > California; Plus One Published: April 28, 2016 doi:
> > 10.1371/journal.pone.0153589
> >
> 
> -- 
> 
> sci.physics is an unmoderated newsgroup dedicated
> to the discussion of physics, news from the physics
> community, and physics-related social issues.

More inane, speculative, BS from phoneys pretending to be scientists.

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