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Re: Living in a world of uncertainty

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On 8/3/2015 1:20 PM, Sam Wormley wrote:
> Living in a world of uncertainty

>
>> Have you ever experienced a small turn of events that resulted in a
>> completely unexpected, unplanned outcome? Unexpected events happen in
>> science too—more frequently than you might imagine.
>
>> Such was the case for mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz
>> of MIT. In the early 1960s he accidentally stumbled on one of the
>> most significant findings in atmospheric science. Lorenz was using a
>> simple computer model, which integrated a set of equations forward in
>> time to make a prediction based on the initial state of the
>> atmosphere. Curious about his model solutions, Lorenz decided to
>> change the mathematical precision of the initial state. To his
>> surprise, his minuscule changes resulted in a completely different
>> forecast—almost as if he had used a different model! The finding led
>> Lorenz to conclude that the atmosphere is a chaotic system, and that
>> even the smallest errors in the initial estimate of the atmospheric
>> conditions can limit our ability to predict weather phenomena.

which is why there is so much concern over the political use/mis-use of 
"global worming" computer models, which fail repeatedly

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Living in a world of uncertainty Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-08-03 13:20 -0500
  Re: Living in a world of uncertainty Fabian Russell <root@localhost.localdomain> - 2015-08-03 18:45 +0000
  Re: Living in a world of uncertainty "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2015-08-03 12:00 -0700
    Re: Living in a world of uncertainty benj <nobody@gmail.com> - 2015-08-04 02:29 -0400
    Re: Living in a world of uncertainty HVAC <Mr.HVAC@gmail.com> - 2015-08-04 06:24 -0400
    Re: Living in a world of uncertainty "reber g=emc^2" <herbertglazier0@gmail.com> - 2015-08-04 15:27 -0700
      Re: Living in a world of uncertainty Sam Wormley <swormley1@gmail.com> - 2015-08-04 18:00 -0500
      Re: Living in a world of uncertainty Double-A <double-a3@hush.com> - 2015-08-04 17:29 -0700
      Re: Living in a world of uncertainty "hanson" <hanson@quick.net> - 2015-08-04 18:51 -0700
      Re: Living in a world of uncertainty HVAC <Mr.HVAC@gmail.com> - 2015-08-05 06:43 -0400
  Re: Living in a world of uncertainty jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 2015-08-03 19:08 +0000
  Re: Living in a world of uncertainty gilber34 <invalid@invalid.com> - 2015-08-03 14:21 -0500
    OOps noTthaTguY <abu.kuanysh05@gmail.com> - 2015-08-03 14:22 -0700

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