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Re: A Rip Van Winkle President Sleeps as Proof of Man’s Hand in Climate Change Multiplies and Disasters Strike

Cross-posted to 3 groups.

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On Sat, 18 Aug 2018 05:37:40 -0400, kensi wrote:

> Those who are not climate scientists can only interpret research done by
> others for the general public and form opinions colored by their work.
> That sum of work as it develops becomes more frightening by the day,
> with a strong fear the predictions will come true earlier than
> anticipated.
> 
> Now there is new climate research on the troposphere, a region extending
> from the surface of the earth to 16 km (10 miles) at the tropics and 13
> km at the poles.  Researchers have studied the amplitudes of the annual
> cycle of tropospheric temperatures, the highs and the lows, and how
> these have changed over time.  Above all, they have examined human
> agency.
> 
> The news, as they say, is not good:
> 
> https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/08/15/a-rip-van-winkle-president-
sleeps-as-proof-of-mans-hand-in-climate-change-multiplies-and-disasters-
strike/

How about you start posting links to articles closer to the research, so 
we don't have to bird-dog that stuff?

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/361/6399/eaas8806

Structured Abstract
INTRODUCTION
Fingerprint studies use pattern information to separate human and natural 
influences on climate. Most fingerprint research relies on patterns of 
climate change that are averaged over years or decades. Few studies probe 
shorter time scales. We consider here whether human influences are 
identifiable in the changing seasonal cycle. We focus on Earth’s 
troposphere, which extends from the surface to roughly 16 km at the 
tropics and 13 km at the poles. Our interest is in TAC, the geographical 
pattern of the amplitude of the annual cycle of tropospheric temperature. 
Information on how TAC has changed over time is available from satellite 
retrievals and from large multimodel ensembles of simulations.

RATIONALE
At least three lines of evidence suggest that human activities have 
affected the seasonal cycle. First, there are seasonal signals in certain 
human-caused external forcings, such as stratospheric ozone depletion and 
particulate pollution. Second, there is seasonality in some of the 
climate feedbacks triggered by external forcings. Third, there are 
widespread signals of seasonal changes in the distributions and 
abundances of plant and animal species. These biological signals are in 
part mediated by seasonal climate changes arising from global warming. 
All three lines of evidence provide scientific justification for 
performing fingerprint studies with the seasonal cycle.

RESULTS
The simulated response of the seasonal cycle to historical changes in 
human and natural factors has prominent mid-latitude increases in the 
amplitude of TAC. These features arise from larger mid-latitude warming 
in the summer hemisphere, which appears to be partly attributable to 
continental drying. Because of land-ocean differences in heat capacity 
and hemispheric asymmetry in land fraction, mid-latitude increases in TAC 
are greater in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. 
Qualitatively similar large-scale patterns of annual cycle change occur 
in satellite tropospheric temperature data.

We applied a standard fingerprint method to determine (i) whether the 
pattern similarity between the model “human influence” fingerprint and 
satellite temperature data increases with time, and (ii) whether such an 
increase is significant relative to random changes in similarity between 
the fingerprint and patterns of natural internal variability. This method 
yields signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios as a function of increasing satellite 
record length. Fingerprint detection occurs when S/N exceeds and remains 
above the 1% significance threshold.

We find that the model fingerprint of externally forced seasonal cycle 
changes is identifiable with high statistical confidence in five out of 
six satellite temperature datasets. In these five datasets, S/N ratios 
for the 38-year satellite record vary from 2.7 to 5.8. Our positive 
fingerprint detection results are unaffected by the removal of all global 
mean information and by the exclusion of sea ice regions. On time scales 
for which meaningful tests are possible (one to two decades), there is no 
evidence that S/N ratios are spuriously inflated by a systematic model 
underestimate of the amplitude of observed tropospheric temperature 
variability.

CONCLUSION
Our results suggest that attribution studies with the seasonal cycle of 
tropospheric temperature provide powerful and novel evidence for a 
statistically significant human effect on Earth’s climate. We hope that 
this finding will stimulate more detailed exploration of the seasonal 
signals caused by anthropogenic forcing.



-- 
-v

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A Rip Van Winkle President Sleeps as Proof of Man’s Hand in Climate Change Multiplies and Disasters Strike kensi <kkensington01@gmail.nospam.invalid> - 2018-08-18 05:37 -0400
  Re: A Rip Van Winkle President Sleeps as Proof of Man’s Hand in Climate Change Multiplies and Disasters Strike benj <benj.fake@gmail.com> - 2018-08-18 09:06 -0400
    Re: Re: A Rip Van Winkle President Sleeps as Proof of Man’s Hand in Climate Change Multiplies and Disasters Strike Avenging Angel <Not.fucking.likely@NoWay.com> - 2018-08-19 13:35 +0000
      Re: A Rip Van Winkle President Sleeps as Proof of Man’s Hand in Climate Change Multiplies and Disasters Strike Klaus  Schadenfreude <klausschadenfreude@null.net> - 2018-08-19 06:39 -0700
  Re: A Rip Van Winkle President Sleeps as Proof of Man’s Hand in Climate Change Multiplies and Disasters Strike vallor <vallor@cultnix.org> - 2018-08-19 22:13 +0000
    Re: A Rip Van Winkle President Sleeps as Proof of Man’s Hand in Climate Change Multiplies and Disasters Strike Sergio <invalid@invalid.com> - 2018-08-19 17:48 -0500
      Re: A Rip Van Winkle President Sleeps as Proof of Man’s Hand in Climate Change Multiplies and Disasters Strike vallor <vallor@cultnix.org> - 2018-08-20 03:20 +0000
        Re: A Rip Van Winkle President Sleeps as Proof of Man’s Hand in Climate Change Multiplies and Disasters Strike Sergio <invalid@invalid.com> - 2018-08-20 10:38 -0500
    Re: A Rip Van Winkle President Sleeps as Proof of Man’s Hand in Climate Change Multiplies and Disasters Strike kensi <kkensington01@gmail.nospam.invalid> - 2018-08-20 07:16 -0400
      Re: Re: A Rip Van Winkle President Sleeps as Proof of Man’s Hand in Climate Change Multiplies and Disasters Strike Tommy <tom@outlook.com> - 2018-08-20 13:38 +0000
      Re: A Rip Van Winkle President Sleeps as Proof of Man?s Hand in Climate Change Multiplies and Disasters Strike Checkmate <ricksabian1@gmail.com> - 2018-08-20 12:07 -0700
        Re: A Rip Van Winkle President Sleeps as Proof of Man?s Hand in Climate Change Multiplies and Disasters Strike Nadegda <nad318b404@gmail.invalid> - 2018-08-21 03:52 +0000
          Re: A Rip Van Winkle President Sleeps as Proof of Man?s Hand in Climate Change Multiplies and Disasters Strike Tommy <tom@outlook.com> - 2018-08-21 13:35 +0000
            Re: A Rip Van Winkle President Sleeps as Proof of Man?s Hand in Climate Change Multiplies and Disasters Strike Checkmate <ricksabian1@gmail.com> - 2018-08-21 06:53 -0700

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