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Witch box ?

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  Witch box ? Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> - 2018-10-30 17:24 +0000
    Re: Witch box ? Odd Bodkin <bodkinodd@gmail.com> - 2018-10-30 18:13 +0000
      Re: Witch box ? moroney@world.std.spaamtrap.com (Michael Moroney) - 2018-10-30 19:19 +0000
        Re: Witch box ? RichD <r_delaney2001@yahoo.com> - 2018-11-04 19:39 -0800
          Re: Witch box ? Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> - 2018-11-05 09:23 +0000
      Re: Witch box ? moroney@world.std.spaamtrap.com (Michael Moroney) - 2018-10-30 19:21 +0000
        Re: Witch box ? Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> - 2018-11-05 09:49 +0000
    Re: Witch box ? rotchm <rotchm@gmail.com> - 2018-10-30 13:34 -0700
      Re: Witch box ? Buck Dehner <uktaa@yswdooz.ca> - 2018-10-30 21:31 +0000
      Re: Witch box ? Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> - 2018-10-31 00:48 +0000
        Go to the door 100 times. Jeff-Relf.Me  @. - 2018-10-30 18:32 -0700
          Re: Go to the door 100 times. Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> - 2018-10-31 05:35 +0000
          Re: Go to the door 100 times. The Starmaker <starmaker@ix.netcom.com> - 2018-10-30 23:33 -0700
            Re: Go to the door 100 times. "Chris M. Thomasson" <invalid_chris_thomasson@invalid.invalid> - 2018-10-31 23:43 -0700
        Re: Witch box ? rotchm <rotchm@gmail.com> - 2018-10-30 20:20 -0700
          Re: Witch box ? Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> - 2018-11-01 14:21 +0000
            Re: Witch box ? rotchm <rotchm@gmail.com> - 2018-11-01 07:23 -0700
              Re: Witch box ? Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> - 2018-11-01 14:54 +0000
                Re: Witch box ? rotchm <rotchm@gmail.com> - 2018-11-01 08:19 -0700
                Re: Witch box ? Odd Bodkin <bodkinodd@gmail.com> - 2018-11-01 16:19 +0000
                  Re: Witch box ? rotchm <rotchm@gmail.com> - 2018-11-01 09:48 -0700
                  Re: Witch box ? Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> - 2018-11-06 20:40 +0000
                    Re: Witch box ? rotchm <rotchm@gmail.com> - 2018-11-06 13:09 -0800
                      Re: Witch box ? Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> - 2018-11-06 21:31 +0000
                        Re: Witch box ? Odd Bodkin <bodkinodd@gmail.com> - 2018-11-06 22:03 +0000
                          Re: Witch box ? rotchm <rotchm@gmail.com> - 2018-11-06 14:39 -0800
                            Re: Witch box ? Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> - 2018-11-07 00:12 +0000
                              Re: Witch box ? rotchm <rotchm@gmail.com> - 2018-11-06 17:18 -0800
                                Re: Witch box ? Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> - 2018-11-07 04:58 +0000
                Re: Witch box ? Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> - 2018-11-01 17:37 +0000
            Re: Witch box ? Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> - 2018-11-01 19:46 +0000
    Re: Witch box ? "Chris M. Thomasson" <invalid_chris_thomasson@invalid.invalid> - 2018-10-30 14:47 -0700
      Re: Witch box ? Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> - 2018-11-01 14:35 +0000
        Re: Witch box ? "Chris M. Thomasson" <invalid_chris_thomasson@invalid.invalid> - 2018-11-05 23:22 -0800
    [OT] Which box? (was: Witch box ?) Thomas 'PointedEars' Lahn <PointedEars@web.de> - 2018-10-31 02:31 +0100
      Re: [OT] Which box? (was: Witch box ?) moroney@world.std.spaamtrap.com (Michael Moroney) - 2018-10-31 03:19 +0000
    Only the teacher knows the answer eh! Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> - 2018-11-01 07:59 +0000
      Re: Only the teacher knows the answer eh! Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> - 2018-11-01 13:34 +0000
        Re: Only the teacher knows the answer eh! rotchm <rotchm@gmail.com> - 2018-11-01 07:27 -0700
          Re: Only the teacher knows the answer eh! Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> - 2018-11-01 15:11 +0000
      Re: Only the teacher knows the answer eh! Odd Bodkin <bodkinodd@gmail.com> - 2018-11-01 14:29 +0000
    Re: Witch box ? "Chris M. Thomasson" <invalid_chris_thomasson@invalid.invalid> - 2018-11-06 15:24 -0800
      Re: Witch box ? Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> - 2018-11-08 09:30 +0000
        Re: Witch box ? Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> - 2018-11-08 21:03 +0000
        Re: Witch box ? "Chris M. Thomasson" <invalid_chris_thomasson@invalid.invalid> - 2018-11-08 22:38 -0800
          Re: Witch box ? Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> - 2018-11-09 07:40 +0000
            Re: Witch box ? "Chris M. Thomasson" <invalid_chris_thomasson@invalid.invalid> - 2018-11-08 23:42 -0800
    Re: Witch box ? Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> - 2018-11-12 17:01 +0000

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#475896 — Witch box ?

                " TRICK or TREAT ? "

The math teacher came to the door with a box containing sweets,
and handed it to the children. "Wait there a moment" he said.

A moment later he reappeared at the door carrying a second box.
"Now you must choose which box you want." he says "I can tell you
that there is a 50% chance that this box has twice as many sweets,
but there is a 50% chance that it only has half as many sweets as
that first box, so which box do you want, the first box, or the
second box ?".

Witch box should
  the children choose ?
(Assuming they wish to maximize their sweet collection eh!)

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#475899

Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> wrote:
>                 " TRICK or TREAT ? "
> 
> The math teacher came to the door with a box containing sweets,
> and handed it to the children. "Wait there a moment" he said.
> 
> A moment later he reappeared at the door carrying a second box.
> "Now you must choose which box you want." he says "I can tell you
> that there is a 50% chance that this box has twice as many sweets,
> but there is a 50% chance that it only has half as many sweets as
> that first box, so which box do you want, the first box, or the
> second box ?".
> 
> Witch box should
>  the children choose ?
> (Assuming they wish to maximize their sweet collection eh!)
> 

AKA the Monty Hall problem. Marilyn vos Savant has a nice write-up. 

-- 
Odd Bodkin — Maker of fine toys, tools, tables

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#475910

Odd Bodkin <bodkinodd@gmail.com> writes:

>Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> wrote:
>>                 " TRICK or TREAT ? "
>> 
>> The math teacher came to the door with a box containing sweets,
>> and handed it to the children. "Wait there a moment" he said.
>> 
>> A moment later he reappeared at the door carrying a second box.
>> "Now you must choose which box you want." he says "I can tell you
>> that there is a 50% chance that this box has twice as many sweets,
>> but there is a 50% chance that it only has half as many sweets as
>> that first box, so which box do you want, the first box, or the
>> second box ?".
>> 
>> Witch box should
>>  the children choose ?
>> (Assuming they wish to maximize their sweet collection eh!)
>> 

>AKA the Monty Hall problem. Marilyn vos Savant has a nice write-up. 

The Monty Hall problem was different. In it there were 3 doors (boxes),
one had a car (candy) and two had a goat (empty).  The contestant would
choose one door, then Monty would open a second door and reveal a goat,
then ask the contestant whether they want to keep the original door or
switch for the third door. 

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#476271

On October 30, Michael Moroney wrote:
> The Monty Hall problem was different. In it there were 3 doors,
> one had a car and two had a goat.  The contestant would
> choose one door, then Monty would open a second door and reveal 
> a goat,then ask the contestant whether they want to keep the 
> original door or switch for the third door.

The program was revived, located in Houston, unfortunately 
proceeding during Hurricane Harvey.  

The contestant chose Door #1, then a gust blew through, 
accidentally opening Door #2, revealing a goat. 

Should he switch to Door #3, or stick with #1?

--
Rich

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#476294

On 05/11/2018 03:39, RichD wrote:
> On October 30, Michael Moroney wrote:
>> The Monty Hall problem was different. In it there were 3 doors,
>> one had a car and two had a goat.  The contestant would
>> choose one door, then Monty would open a second door and reveal
>> a goat,then ask the contestant whether they want to keep the
>> original door or switch for the third door.

In this case, when Monty opens the door revealing a goat,
this gives you no additional information about what lies
behind the door you chose, (because Monty who knows what
lies behind the doors can always open one with a goat behind).
So the probability of you winning the car if you STICK remains
as it was at the start i.e. 1/3. The only other possibility
is to SWITCH, and this must therefore give you a 2/3 chance of
winning the car so you should SWITCH eh!

> The program was revived, located in Houston, unfortunately
> proceeding during Hurricane Harvey.
> 
> The contestant chose Door #1, then a gust blew through,
> accidentally opening Door #2, revealing a goat.
> 
> Should he switch to Door #3, or stick with #1?

In this case, when a gust of wind accidentally opened a door,
and failed to reveal the car, then this has increased the
chance that the car lies behind the door you first chose,
(from 1/3 to 1/2), so it will not matter whether you STICK
or SWITCH, you have a 50 - 50 chance either way eh!

keith stein

> --
> Rich
> 
> 

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#475911

Odd Bodkin <bodkinodd@gmail.com> writes:

>AKA the Monty Hall problem. Marilyn vos Savant has a nice write-up. 

how weird. While typing in my last message the guy in the next cube starts 
talking about the Monty Hall problem!  After not thinking of it for maybe
10 years...

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#476295

On 30/10/2018 19:21, Michael Moroney wrote:
> Odd Bodkin <bodkinodd@gmail.com> writes:
> 
>> AKA the Monty Hall problem. Marilyn vos Savant has a nice write-up.
> 
> how weird. While typing in my last message the guy in the next cube starts
> talking about the Monty Hall problem!  After not thinking of it for maybe
> 10 years...
> 

Spooky eh!

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#475914

On Tuesday, October 30, 2018 at 1:24:11 PM UTC-4, Keith Stein wrote:
> " TRICK or TREAT ? "
> 
> The math teacher came to the door with a box containing sweets,
> and handed it to the children. "Wait there a moment" he said.
> 
> A moment later he reappeared at the door carrying a second box.
> "Now you must choose which box you want." he says "I can tell you
> that there is a 50% chance that this box has twice as many sweets,
> but there is a 50% chance that it only has half as many sweets as
> that first box, so which box do you want, the first box, or the
> second box ?".
> 
> Witch box should the children choose?


A simple & direct problem. No 'catches' in there. 
The expectation is higher for the switch. 

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#475916

rotchm wrote:

> On Tuesday, October 30, 2018 at 1:24:11 PM UTC-4, Keith Stein wrote:
>> " TRICK or TREAT ? "
>> The math teacher came to the door with a box containing sweets, and
>> handed it to the children. "Wait there a moment" he said.
>> A moment later he reappeared at the door carrying a second box. "Now
>> you must choose which box you want." he says "I can tell you that there
>> is a 50% chance that this box has twice as many sweets,
>> but there is a 50% chance that it only has half as many sweets as that
>> first box, so which box do you want, the first box, or the second box
>> ?". Witch box should the children choose?
> 
> A simple & direct problem. No 'catches' in there.
> The expectation is higher for the switch.

Let's see the math then, with proper expectation symbols. Your friend 
thomas pointedhead has no idea what we are talking about, using symbols 
not understanding what it is. Let's see how good you people are in math 
expectations.

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#475921

On 30/10/2018 20:34, rotchm wrote:
> On Tuesday, October 30, 2018 at 1:24:11 PM UTC-4, Keith Stein wrote:
>>                  " TRICK or TREAT ?"
>>
>> The math teacher came to the door with a box containing sweets,
>> and handed it to the children. "Wait there a moment" he said.
>>
>> A moment later he reappeared at the door carrying a second box.
>> "Now you must choose which box you want." he says "I can tell you
>> that there is a 50% chance that this box has twice as many sweets,
>> but there is a 50% chance that it only has half as many sweets as
>> that first box, so which box do you want, the first box, or the
>> second box ?".
>>
>> Witch box should the children choose?

> A simple & direct problem. No 'catches' in there.
> The expectation is higher for the switch. 

   "Oh thank you Clever Rotchm" said the children,
   "We thought maybe there WAS a 'catch' in there eh!"

   So the children swapped their box for the second box.
   Then the math teacher, holding up the first box said

    "There is a 50% chance that this box has twice as many sweets,
     but there is a 50% chance that it only has half as many sweets as
     that second box, so which box do you want, the first box, or the
     second box ?".

"OH WHAT SHOULD WE DO NOW, CLEVER ROTCHM ????" said the children.

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#475925 — Go to the door 100 times.

The solution is to go to the door 100 times.

It doesn't matter if you (randomly) take the first box or not;
it all evens out in the end, after 100 visits.

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#475929 — Re: Go to the door 100 times.

On 31/10/2018 01:32, Jeff-Relf.Me@. wrote:
> The solution is to go to the door 100 times.
> 
> It doesn't matter if you (randomly) take the first box or not;
> it all evens out in the end, after 100 visits.


Be careful Jeff. This is Halloween,
  and this is a 'tricky problem.............

Maybe it DOES matter, and maybe it does NOT.
Only the math teacher would know, for sure,
and he ain't tellin'. At least NOT YET eh!

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#475933 — Re: Go to the door 100 times.

Jeff-Relf.Me, @. wrote:
> 
> The solution is to go to the door 100 times.
> 
> It doesn't matter if you (randomly) take the first box or not;
> it all evens out in the end, after 100 visits.


you can throw a dice a 100 times or
you can throw 100 dice once.

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#475977 — Re: Go to the door 100 times.

On 10/30/2018 11:33 PM, The Starmaker wrote:
> Jeff-Relf.Me, @. wrote:
>>
>> The solution is to go to the door 100 times.
>>
>> It doesn't matter if you (randomly) take the first box or not;
>> it all evens out in the end, after 100 visits.
> 
> 
> you can throw a dice a 100 times or
> you can throw 100 dice once.
> 

;^)

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#475928

On Tuesday, October 30, 2018 at 8:48:13 PM UTC-4, Keith Stein wrote:

>    So the children swapped their box for the second box.
>    Then the math teacher, holding up the first box said
> 
>     "There is a 50% chance that this box has twice as many sweets,
>      but there is a 50% chance that it only has half as many sweets as
>      that second box, so which box do you want, the first box, or the
>      second box ?".
> 
> "OH WHAT SHOULD WE DO NOW, CLEVER ROTCHM ????" said the children.

No matter what the teacher says after the initial swap, the expectation in keeping it remains as is. Swapping a second time will just reduce the expectation back to the initial value. So, no, the children are not to swap a second time. 

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#475991

On 31/10/2018 03:20, rotchm wrote:
> On Tuesday, October 30, 2018 at 8:48:13 PM UTC-4, Keith Stein wrote:
> 
>>     So the children swapped their box for the second box.
>>     Then the math teacher, holding up the first box said
>>
>>      "There is a 50% chance that this box has twice as many sweets,
>>       but there is a 50% chance that it only has half as many sweets as
>>       that second box, so which box do you want, the first box, or the
>>       second box ?".
>>
>> "OH WHAT SHOULD WE DO NOW, CLEVER ROTCHM ????" said the children.
> 
> No matter what the teacher says after the initial swap,
> the expectation in keeping it remains as is. Swapping
> a second time will just reduce the expectation back to
> the initial value. So, no, the children are not to 
> swap a second time.


As usual Rotchm gives the children THE WORST POSSIBLE ADVICE eh!

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#475992

On Thursday, November 1, 2018 at 10:21:01 AM UTC-4, Keith Stein wrote:

> As usual Rotchm gives the children THE WORST POSSIBLE ADVICE eh!

Again you are wrong. This is not the first time that I argue that u r wrong and where you eventually concede. 

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#476001

On 01/11/2018 14:23, rotchm wrote:
> On Thursday, November 1, 2018 at 10:21:01 AM UTC-4, Keith Stein wrote:
> 
>> As usual Rotchm gives the children THE WORST POSSIBLE ADVICE eh!
> 
> Again you are wrong.

No Rotchm, again you are wrong,

and before you proceed to make an even bigger fool of yourself let me
explain to you just how the teacher did set it up. He used a 3 BOX
set up, but rather than giving the children at the door,the average box 
with n sweets, he gives them either of the 2n or n/2 box at random   eh!


> This is not the first time that I argue that u r wrong and where you eventually concede.

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#476003

On Thursday, November 1, 2018 at 10:55:01 AM UTC-4, Keith Stein wrote:
> On 01/11/2018 14:23, rotchm wrote:
 
> > Again you are wrong.
> 
> No Rotchm, again you are wrong,

Nope, you are wrong.


> and before you proceed to make an even bigger fool of yourself let me
> explain to you just how the teacher did set it up.

Ok, lets see where you erred...

> He used a 3 BOX set up, 

FALSE. That already a first error on your part. 
In your riddle there was two and only two boxes. You Are now changing the problem as a way to squirm out of your errors. 

> but rather than giving the children at the door,the average box 
> with n sweets, he gives them either of the 2n or n/2 box at random   eh!

Nope. This is NOT at all what you initially posed. So you are changing AGAIN
the problem as you are going along. Either you are a complete idiot, or a liar/frandster = troll. And we dont feed troll, so this ends the conversation.

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#476007

Keith Stein <keithstein111@gmail.com> wrote:
> On 01/11/2018 14:23, rotchm wrote:
>> On Thursday, November 1, 2018 at 10:21:01 AM UTC-4, Keith Stein wrote:
>> 
>>> As usual Rotchm gives the children THE WORST POSSIBLE ADVICE eh!
>> 
>> Again you are wrong.
> 
> No Rotchm, again you are wrong,
> 
> and before you proceed to make an even bigger fool of yourself let me
> explain to you just how the teacher did set it up. He used a 3 BOX
> set up, but rather than giving the children at the door,the average box 
> with n sweets, he gives them either of the 2n or n/2 box at random   eh!

If this were true, then the math teacher would have been lying to the kids.
Let’s suppose that the box he initially gave the kids was the n/2 box. Then
if he offers a second box, there’s a 50% chance that the second box has
twice as many treats and 50% chance that the second box has four times as
many treats. 

You don’t understand your own problem. 

> 
> 
>> This is not the first time that I argue that u r wrong and where you eventually concede.
> 
> 
> 



-- 
Odd Bodkin — Maker of fine toys, tools, tables

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