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Why Monte Carlo simulations of project networks can mislead

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  Why Monte Carlo simulations of project networks can mislead rami18 <coco@coco.com> - 2017-07-06 08:41 -0400

#3828 — Why Monte Carlo simulations of project networks can mislead

Hello....


I think PERT++ is powerful, because read about Monte Carlo simulation
weakness:

Why Monte Carlo simulations of project networks can mislead

"Simulations rarely consider management actions, running through each 
iteration in a “dumb” fashion. This gives rise to results indicating 
that projects might underrun or very considerably overrun, whereas, in 
reality, management actions would often bring those overruns forward 
even at significant cost. Indeed, many of the actions management carry 
out to catch up a late-running project cannot be modelled in a naïve 
network simulation, because they involve changing the network (e.g., by 
bringing an activity forward to start it earlier than would otherwise be 
sensible, thereby breaking a dependency; or taking serial activities and 
making them parallel). Since a Monte Carlo network simulation assumes 
that the network is fixed and unchangeable (except in some simulations 
by branch points that allow different paths to be taken), such actions 
cannot easily be modelled."

https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/monte-carlo-simulations-project-networks-mislead-2537


So PERT++ is much easier to model this.

You can download PERT++ from:

https://sites.google.com/site/aminer68/pert-the-program-evaluation-and-review-technique-for-delphi-and-freepascal


Thank you,
Amine Moulay Ramdane.

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