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Groups > comp.os.linux.advocacy > #689779

Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe

From -hh <recscuba_google@huntzinger.com>
Newsgroups comp.os.linux.advocacy
Subject Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe
Date 2025-04-30 21:53 -0400
Organization A noiseless patient Spider
Message-ID <vuuk6h$1hbir$1@dont-email.me> (permalink)
References (5 earlier) <m6e8jbFilqmU1@mid.individual.net> <51b70kt9e59919l9k4j90n9o4cgisg1vnc@4ax.com> <363006266.766802581.768586.recscuba_google-huntzinger.com@news.eternal-september.org> <m6jdfiFe1h3U2@mid.individual.net> <vut8ue$795k$3@dont-email.me>

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On 4/30/25 09:35, -hh wrote:
> On 4/20/25 01:02, rbowman wrote:
>> On Sat, 19 Apr 2025 19:54:55 -0500, -hh wrote:
>>
>>> chrisv <chrisv@nospam.invalid> wrote:
>>>> rbowman wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> -hh wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>> First one was a pandemic itself, which killed 1.2 million Americans.
>>>>>> This generated far more submissions by health professionals than a
>>>>>> normal or bad flu season/year.
>>>>
>>>> Far less than the 2% that many (such as yourself, IIRC) predicted, and
>>>> nearly all of them where very old and sick already.
>>>
>>> I’ll check on if it was a prediction, or just the topical estimate of
>>> worst case.
>>
>> https://www.reuters...
>> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/...
> 
> I've not had COLA posts cited in major media...at least that I know of.
> 
>> A popular Monday morning quarterback ploy when you've fucked the dog
>> royally is 'Oh no, that wasn't a prediction, it was a worse case
>> scenario.'
> 
> Which is why I want to go read the archives to see precisely what I did 
> say back in 2020, including any/all caveats.
> 
> I've just gotten back to my desktop today, but you're free to go search 
> through Google Groups from back then too & provide URL cites to help me.

How's your search going?

I did find this, which seems to align with chrisv's "2%" bit above:

[quote]
Interactive timeline chart can be found here:

< 
https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid#how-did-confirmed-deaths-and-cases-change-over-time>

TL;DR: USA peaked at 6%; had since declined to 2%....

...concern is if it will peak again as medical facilities get 
overwhelmed again.
[/quote]

<https://groups.google.com/g/comp.os.linux.advocacy/c/qkwJwPssUuE/m/BnFquXMeBAAJ>

That's not a prediction, but was a report on actuals.

Similarly, much earlier (March 2020) thread:

[quote]
On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 1:14:33 PM UTC-4, chrisv wrote:
 > -hh wrote:
 >
 > 
 ><https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics=/>
 > >
 > >From it, the age-based death rates:
 > >
 > >80+ years old.. 14.8%
 > >70-79 years old 8.0%
 > >60-69 years old 3.6%
 > >50-59 years old 1.3%
 > >40-49 years old 0.4%
 > >10-39 years old 0.2%
 > >
 > >Using the above, consider how many older members of one's own
 > >family are in these higher risk Age groups: 50+, 60+, 70+ ...
 > >
 > >Ditto for the people you work with, know through church,
 > >friends, neighbors, etc. Its not all that hard for a
 > >parent to quickly count 200-300 folks that they know of
 > >comparable (and typically older) age. For example, if you
 > >know just 25-30 people in their 60s, because their mortality
 > >rate is 3.6%, that means one death for each ~27 you know.
 >
 > I'm in my 50's, but don't know many people who are significantly
 > older. One brother, in his 60's, and that's about it.

My siblings are all older and 60+; its probably why I've
generally related to older (music and) people. It does seem
that a good number of old classmates & friends are starting to
retire, or at least hit their 60th birthday milestone. Another
lump are some longtime friends from the BITNET era, many of
which (if they're still kicking) are 70+. Things like church
congregations can get modeled by using the applicable subgroups.


 > Of course, the mortality rates, above, are for those who
 > actually get the coronavirus, and not everyone will...

Sure, and estimates vary pretty widely; the rates I've seen
in print have been as high as 80%, although appear to more
often be in the "40% to 70% range" as per the below cite:

<https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/>

Keeping in mind that the strategy of interventions such
as social separation, while is predominantly to slow the
near-term rate (to prevent healthcare from being overwhelmed),
will probably reduce overall exposure rates as well.

But it should run generally higher in more connected societies,
so its hard to say just where it will finally shake out after
~2 years. Personally, I don't think that a 50%-66% rate is
at all unrealistic for the USA. That would suggest that the
rate for age 60-69 would go from "1 in 27" to "1 in 40".
[/quote]


<https://groups.google.com/g/comp.os.linux.advocacy/c/C40pel_Xg6o/m/hfyi2ccbAgAJ>

..which is also a report on actual case mortality rates.

And we can see the much longer longitudinal now here:, for Sept 2020 
through May 2023, when the US apparently stopped providing this data. 
I'm not sure if there's a grand total average, but the TL;DR is that 
there were many weeks above 1%, multiple weeks above 2%, and even a 3.5% 
peak which IMO might be a data reporting anomaly:

<https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid#how-did-confirmed-deaths-and-cases-change-over-time>

The only prediction from me in the above was for ages 60-69 and it was 
an expectation that the eventual mortality rate for this age group was 
likely to decline from current.

-hh

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Thread

(OT) They're not all crazy in Europe RonB <ronb02NOSPAM@gmail.com> - 2025-04-17 09:19 +0000
  Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-17 09:02 -0400
  Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe Stéphane CARPENTIER <sc@fiat-linux.fr> - 2025-04-17 19:41 +0000
    Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-17 17:48 -0400
      Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe RonB <ronb02NOSPAM@gmail.com> - 2025-04-17 23:09 +0000
        Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-17 20:46 -0400
        Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe -hh <recscuba_google@huntzinger.com> - 2025-04-17 21:36 -0500
          Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-04-18 06:08 +0000
            Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe RonB <ronb02NOSPAM@gmail.com> - 2025-04-18 06:14 +0000
            Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe -hh <recscuba_google@huntzinger.com> - 2025-04-18 14:46 -0500
            Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe chrisv <chrisv@nospam.invalid> - 2025-04-19 09:04 -0500
              Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe -hh <recscuba_google@huntzinger.com> - 2025-04-19 19:54 -0500
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-04-20 05:02 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe -hh <recscuba_google@huntzinger.com> - 2025-04-30 09:35 -0400
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe -hh <recscuba_google@huntzinger.com> - 2025-04-30 21:53 -0400
    Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe RonB <ronb02NOSPAM@gmail.com> - 2025-04-17 23:04 +0000
    Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe vallor <vallor@cultnix.org> - 2025-04-18 01:38 +0000
      Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe % <pursent100@gmail.com> - 2025-04-17 19:25 -0700
        Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe vallor <vallor@cultnix.org> - 2025-04-18 02:45 +0000
          Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe % <pursent100@gmail.com> - 2025-04-18 06:23 -0700
    Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe chrisv <chrisv@nospam.invalid> - 2025-04-18 07:00 -0500
      Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-18 10:09 -0400
      Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-04-18 18:15 +0000
        Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe % <pursent100@gmail.com> - 2025-04-18 12:33 -0700
        Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe RonB <ronb02NOSPAM@gmail.com> - 2025-04-18 20:39 +0000
      Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe RonB <ronb02NOSPAM@gmail.com> - 2025-04-18 20:34 +0000
        Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe % <pursent100@gmail.com> - 2025-04-18 13:35 -0700
        Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-04-19 00:30 +0000
        Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe -hh <recscuba_google@huntzinger.com> - 2025-04-19 20:02 -0500
  Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe chrisv <chrisv@nospam.invalid> - 2025-04-17 16:05 -0500
    Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-17 17:49 -0400
      Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe snipeco.2@gmail.com (Sn!pe) - 2025-04-18 14:55 +0100
        Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-18 10:19 -0400
          Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe chrisv <chrisv@nospam.invalid> - 2025-04-19 09:11 -0500
            Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe snipeco.2@gmail.com (Sn!pe) - 2025-04-19 15:39 +0100
              Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe % <pursent100@gmail.com> - 2025-04-19 07:48 -0700
            Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-19 13:46 -0400
        Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe % <pursent100@gmail.com> - 2025-04-18 12:29 -0700
    Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe RonB <ronb02NOSPAM@gmail.com> - 2025-04-17 23:10 +0000
      Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe snipeco.2@gmail.com (Sn!pe) - 2025-04-18 14:57 +0100
        Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe RonB <ronb02NOSPAM@gmail.com> - 2025-04-18 20:41 +0000
          Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe snipeco.2@gmail.com (Sn!pe) - 2025-04-18 22:01 +0100
            Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe RonB <ronb02NOSPAM@gmail.com> - 2025-04-18 21:10 +0000
              Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe % <pursent100@gmail.com> - 2025-04-18 14:18 -0700
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-19 07:56 -0400
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe snipeco.2@gmail.com (Sn!pe) - 2025-04-19 14:36 +0100
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-19 13:13 -0400
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe snipeco.2@gmail.com (Sn!pe) - 2025-04-19 18:21 +0100
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe % <pursent100@gmail.com> - 2025-04-19 12:25 -0700
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe RonB <ronb02NOSPAM@gmail.com> - 2025-04-21 04:40 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-21 07:50 -0400
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe RonB <ronb02NOSPAM@gmail.com> - 2025-04-21 21:52 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-21 21:04 -0400
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe RonB <ronb02NOSPAM@gmail.com> - 2025-04-22 06:05 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-22 08:51 -0400
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe RonB <ronb02NOSPAM@gmail.com> - 2025-04-23 05:12 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-04-23 07:45 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe Joel <joelcrump@gmail.com> - 2025-04-23 04:38 -0400
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe RonB <ronb02NOSPAM@gmail.com> - 2025-04-24 12:46 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-23 08:43 -0400
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe RonB <ronb02NOSPAM@gmail.com> - 2025-04-24 12:58 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-24 09:09 -0400
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe RonB <ronb02NOSPAM@gmail.com> - 2025-04-25 01:22 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-24 21:33 -0400
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-04-25 05:34 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-25 09:26 -0400
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe RonB <ronb02NOSPAM@gmail.com> - 2025-04-26 02:37 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-26 07:41 -0400
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe RonB <ronb02NOSPAM@gmail.com> - 2025-04-26 02:35 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-04-26 08:08 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe RonB <ronb02NOSPAM@gmail.com> - 2025-04-27 05:55 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-04-27 08:14 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-26 07:41 -0400
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe Stéphane CARPENTIER <sc@fiat-linux.fr> - 2025-04-26 12:40 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-26 08:58 -0400
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe RonB <ronb02NOSPAM@gmail.com> - 2025-04-27 06:30 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe RonB <ronb02NOSPAM@gmail.com> - 2025-04-27 06:29 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe Stéphane CARPENTIER <sc@fiat-linux.fr> - 2025-04-27 08:01 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-04-27 18:46 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-27 14:46 -0400
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe RonB <ronb02NOSPAM@gmail.com> - 2025-04-27 06:13 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-27 14:37 -0400
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-04-28 03:25 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-28 08:36 -0400
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe RonB <ronb02NOSPAM@gmail.com> - 2025-04-28 06:39 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-04-28 07:20 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe RonB <ronb02NOSPAM@gmail.com> - 2025-04-28 12:23 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-28 08:52 -0400
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe RonB <ronb02NOSPAM@gmail.com> - 2025-04-28 19:46 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-28 16:42 -0400
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-04-29 03:43 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-29 09:20 -0400
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe RonB <ronb02NOSPAM@gmail.com> - 2025-04-29 20:47 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-29 17:25 -0400
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe chrisv <chrisv@nospam.invalid> - 2025-04-29 18:44 -0500
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-29 20:14 -0400
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe RonB <ronb02NOSPAM@gmail.com> - 2025-04-29 06:04 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-29 09:22 -0400
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe RonB <ronb02NOSPAM@gmail.com> - 2025-04-29 20:49 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-29 17:26 -0400
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-04-29 03:38 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe RonB <ronb02NOSPAM@gmail.com> - 2025-04-29 06:08 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe Chris Ahlstrom <OFeem1987@teleworm.us> - 2025-04-28 08:24 -0400
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-04-28 18:33 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-28 08:43 -0400
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-04-28 18:40 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-28 16:37 -0400
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-04-29 03:20 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-29 09:18 -0400
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe RonB <ronb02NOSPAM@gmail.com> - 2025-04-29 20:46 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-29 17:23 -0400
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe % <pursent100@gmail.com> - 2025-04-24 20:00 -0700
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-25 09:25 -0400
              Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe snipeco.2@gmail.com (Sn!pe) - 2025-04-18 22:34 +0100
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe -hh <recscuba_google@huntzinger.com> - 2025-04-19 20:04 -0500
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe chrisv <chrisv@nospam.invalid> - 2025-04-30 18:28 -0500
            Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-19 07:53 -0400
              Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe snipeco.2@gmail.com (Sn!pe) - 2025-04-19 14:36 +0100
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-19 13:14 -0400
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe snipeco.2@gmail.com (Sn!pe) - 2025-04-19 18:26 +0100
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-19 13:47 -0400
              Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe Stéphane CARPENTIER <sc@fiat-linux.fr> - 2025-04-19 13:48 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe CrudeSausage <crude@sausa.ge> - 2025-04-19 13:15 -0400
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe Chris Ahlstrom <OFeem1987@teleworm.us> - 2025-04-20 10:39 -0400
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe vallor <vallor@cultnix.org> - 2025-04-20 15:26 +0000
                Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe % <pursent100@gmail.com> - 2025-04-20 09:06 -0700

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