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Re: Colorado hands-free driving law taking effect in the new year

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badgolferman wrote on Wed, 11 Dec 2024 21:13:38 -0000 (UTC) :

> I don't believe statistics that tell me distracted driving caused by using
> cell phones hasn't led to more accidents. I can see with my own eyes how
> people are extremely dangerous to be around with their erratic driving,
> excessively large gaps between themselves and the car in front of them, and
> their eyes pointing down rather than ahead. I don't care what the
> statistics say because as a motorcycle rider I watch like a hawk what
> drivers around me are doing and I make it a point to look inside their cars
> to ensure their attention is on the road. And then there are the people
> around them who are affected by the distracted and erratic driving,
> sometimes leading to accidents on their part as they try to avoid or pass
> the distracted driver. 
> 
> Then there is the epidemic of people driving with their high beams on in
> town and blinding the rest of us. Unfortunately I can't see if they're
> looking at their phones because I can't see anything from the glare they're
> producing. 
> 
> We will have to agree to disagree on this issue.

Hi badgolferman,

This is an interesting topic which I hzve researched deeply over the years.
Most people don't research anything; they just guess at everything.

But not me. 
I don't trust my own intuition; so I check the data. 

Only after I check the data do I form a conclusion based on the evidence.
That's what I was taught as an engineer and as a scientist.

You should also.

Hence, I converse with you as a normal adult, where I don't need to dumb
down the message, nor repeat it with you since you own normal comprehensive
skills - so you can handle a topic that is complex and nuanced.

Usenet isn't really the best medium to discuss topics of import which are
actually far more complex than most people think - especially since only
one out of a million people checks their data before assuming a conclusion.

So I want to start by saying I UNDERSTAND why you think the way you do.

In fact, many years ago (more than a decade or so), I had long ago already
fully and completely understood your point of view, because not only have 
I studied this topic extensively, but yours is the exact same point of view
of most people. So how could I not be aware of your point of view, right?

I know what 999,999 out of a million people think.
And I know why they think it.

And that's fine.
But there's a problem with "assuming" things.

It's just a guess when people "assume" things.
Just as much a guess as the earth is flat is people "assuming" things.

Most people guess that gravity is a force.
But when you check the data, you find out gravity is NOT a force.

My point is I know and you know and everyone knows what everyone assumes.
But that assumption is merely a guess.

Nobody has ever *checked* their assumptions against the reliable data.
Everyone assumes their guess is 100% right all the time. 

In other words, they feel their intuition is 100% perfect all the time.
And yet, it's not. 

For thousands of years people assumed the sun revolves around the earth.
it's a great guess. Most people guessed the same thing.

But when smart people checked the data, they found out the guess was wrong.
So rest assured I'm aware that 999,999 out of a million people just guess.

They assume that (a) cellphones are a distraction, and (b) distractions 
cause accidents, so (c) cellphone distractions must cause accidents to the 
point that (d) the accident rate should skyrocket when cellphones appeared.

I have the same intuition as you do, and I have the same intuition that 
everyone has, so I would have assumed the same thing as you and everyone 
else did had I not had a specific trait which makes me a great scientist.

Had I not checked the data.

Guess what I found when I checked the data?
Yup. The accident rate remained unchanged between the three critical 
periods of (1) before cellphones from 1920 onward, to (2) the meteoric rise 
of cellphone ownership rates, and then (3) the plateau since then.

Huh?
WTF?

What happened?

Note I never once said that cellphone use doesn't cause accidents.
Nor have I ever said that cellphones aren't a distraction while driving.

Nobody disputes that. Least of all me.

But give me credit for being intelligent. Please. In giving me that credit, 
you need to know I've *researched* this and I found out what appears to be 
happening which is keeping the well-documented accident rate from rising. 

There are three fundamental reasons, I believe, why there is no evidence 
whatsoever in the reliable accident rate statistics of the US Census Bureau 
(which has been keeping reliable accident-rate statistics for a hundred 
years!) of the cellphone accident rate skyrocketing during the period of 
cellphone ownership percentages skyrocketing.

Three reasons.

But nobody here is ready for those reasons since they already assumed that 
gravity is a force and that the earth is flat and that the sun revolves 
around the earth - simply because they assumed all those things without 
doublechecking the facts.

It's only when you doublecheck the facts that you find out there are very 
interesting reasons (three of them) which explain why the cellphone 
accident rate is essentially unchanged between the three critical periods:
a. Accident rate in each state *before* cellphones existed
b. Accident rate during the meteoric rise of cellphone ownership 
c. Accident rate after we reached almost 100% cellphone ownership

Science isn't intuitive.
People are often wrong when they assume things sans any reliable data.

Without data, all assumptions are simply guesses.
Rest assured, had I not checked my assum;ptions, I too would have thought
a. Cellphones are a huge distraction
b. Distractions must be causing accieents
c. So, I would have "assumed" that the accident rate skyrocketed

And yet it did not.
It didn't even change.

It has been trending downward before, during & after.

Why is that?
I (think I) know why.

But you have to understand the fundamentals before we can talk about why.
Do you want to discuss those fundamentals first?

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Colorado hands-free driving law taking effect in the new year David Yurman <spamming@your.tv> - 2024-12-11 07:51 +0100
  Re: Colorado hands-free driving law taking effect in the new year Andrew <andys@nospam.com> - 2024-12-11 17:13 +0000
    Re: Colorado hands-free driving law taking effect in the new year D <noreply@mixmin.net> - 2024-12-11 18:17 +0000
    Re: Colorado hands-free driving law taking effect in the new year Alan <nuh-uh@nope.com> - 2024-12-11 10:55 -0800
      Re: Colorado hands-free driving law taking effect in the new year Allodoxaphobia <trepidation@example.net> - 2024-12-12 20:00 +0000
        Re: Colorado hands-free driving law taking effect in the new year Alan <nuh-uh@nope.com> - 2024-12-12 15:09 -0800
          Re: Colorado hands-free driving law taking effect in the new year Allodoxaphobia <trepidation@example.net> - 2024-12-13 19:42 +0000
    Re: Colorado hands-free driving law taking effect in the new year super70s <super70s@super70s.invalid> - 2024-12-11 13:38 -0600
      Re: Colorado hands-free driving law taking effect in the new year Andrew <andys@nospam.com> - 2024-12-11 20:52 +0000
        Re: Colorado hands-free driving law taking effect in the new year bad sector <forgetski@_INVALID.net> - 2024-12-11 16:11 -0500
          Re: Colorado hands-free driving law taking effect in the new year Andrew <andys@nospam.com> - 2024-12-12 04:11 +0000
            Re: Colorado hands-free driving law taking effect in the new year bad sector <forgetski@_INVALID.net> - 2024-12-12 07:28 -0500
              Re: Colorado hands-free driving law taking effect in the new year Andrew <andys@nospam.com> - 2024-12-12 21:14 +0000
          Re: Colorado hands-free driving law taking effect in the new year "Scout" <me4guns@verizon.removeme.this2.nospam.net> - 2024-12-12 09:09 -0600
            Re: Colorado hands-free driving law taking effect in the new year bad sector <forgetski@_INVALID.net> - 2024-12-12 12:05 -0500
              Re: Colorado hands-free driving law taking effect in the new year "Scout" <me4guns@verizon.removeme.this2.nospam.net> - 2024-12-12 11:09 -0600
                Re: Colorado hands-free driving law taking effect in the new year Andrew <andys@nospam.com> - 2024-12-12 21:14 +0000
                Re: Colorado hands-free driving law taking effect in the new year "Scout" <me4guns@verizon.removeme.this2.nospam.net> - 2024-12-13 11:00 -0600
                Re: Colorado hands-free driving law taking effect in the new year Andrew <andys@nospam.com> - 2024-12-13 18:34 +0000
            Re: Colorado hands-free driving law taking effect in the new year MGMT 1B <mgmt1b@ucl.a> - 2024-12-18 01:59 -0800
            Re: Colorado hands-free driving law taking effect in the new year Rudy Canoza <r�.@hendrie.con> - 2024-12-18 08:08 -0800
        Re: Colorado hands-free driving law taking effect in the new year super70s <super70s@super70s.invalid> - 2024-12-11 17:17 -0600
          Re: Colorado hands-free driving law taking effect in the new year Andrew <andys@nospam.com> - 2024-12-12 04:09 +0000
            Re: Colorado hands-free driving law taking effect in the new year Alan <nuh-uh@nope.com> - 2024-12-11 20:11 -0800
        Re: Colorado hands-free driving law taking effect in the new year D <noreply@mixmin.net> - 2024-12-12 00:32 +0000
    Re: Colorado hands-free driving law taking effect in the new year Andrew <andys@nospam.com> - 2024-12-12 05:38 +0000
      Re: Colorado hands-free driving law taking effect in the new year Alan <nuh-uh@nope.com> - 2024-12-11 21:59 -0800
      Re: Colorado hands-free driving law taking effect in the new year "badgolferman" <REMOVETHISbadgolferman@gmail.com> - 2024-12-12 11:46 +0000
        Re: Colorado hands-free driving law taking effect in the new year Chris <ithinkiam@gmail.com> - 2024-12-12 22:00 +0000

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