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ipad sales level off: due to PC tasks or phone capabilities?

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  ipad sales level off: due to PC tasks or phone capabilities? RS Wood  <rsw@therandymon.com> - 2014-04-22 11:51 +0000
    Re: ipad sales level off: due to PC tasks or phone capabilities? Oregonian Haruspex <bob_davis_retired@yahoo.com> - 2014-04-22 16:23 -0700
      Re: ipad sales level off: due to PC tasks or phone capabilities? RS Wood <rsw@therandymon.com> - 2014-04-23 15:22 +0000

#2436 — ipad sales level off: due to PC tasks or phone capabilities?

From the «look like a moron while taking photos» department:
Title: On the Leveling-Off of iPad Sales
Author: John Gruber
Date: Mon, 21 Apr 2014 17:04:05 -0400
Link: http://www.mondaynote.com/2014/04/20/the-ipad-is-a-tease/

Jean-Louis Gassée, on the widespread expectation that year-over-year iPad
sales have leveled off:

Despite the inspiring ads, Apple’s hopes for the iPad overshot what the
product can actually deliver. Although there’s a large numbers of iPad-only
users, there’s also a substantial population of dual-use customers for whom
both tablets and conventional PCs are now part of daily life.

I see the lull in iPad sales as a coming down to reality after unrealistic
expectations, a realization that iPads aren’t as ready to replace PCs as
many initially hoped.

In short, Gassée is arguing that tablet sales have hit a wall, and that the
iPad needs to grow more Mac-like capabilities for advanced tasks.

Gassée’s piece spawned an interesting thread on Twitter[1], in which Benedict
Evans argued[2]:

Posit: slow iPad sales are worse news for the PC market: implies phones can
take the greater share of PC use cases.

I find that compelling. We might have overestimated the eventual role of
tablets and underestimated the role of phones — and the whole argument is
further muddled by the industry-wide move toward 5-inch-ish phone displays.
★ [3]

Links:
[1]: https://twitter.com/gassee/status/457953543349993475 (link)
[2]: https://twitter.com/BenedictEvans/status/458091975627907073 (link)
[3]: http://daringfireball.net/linked/2014/04/21/gassee-ipad (link)

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#2443

On 2014-04-22 11:51:54 +0000, RS Wood said:

> From the «look like a moron while taking photos» department:
> Title: On the Leveling-Off of iPad Sales
> Author: John Gruber
> Date: Mon, 21 Apr 2014 17:04:05 -0400
> Link: http://www.mondaynote.com/2014/04/20/the-ipad-is-a-tease/
> 
> Jean-Louis Gassée, on the widespread expectation that year-over-year iPad
> sales have leveled off:
> 
> Despite the inspiring ads, Apple’s hopes for the iPad overshot what the
> product can actually deliver. Although there’s a large numbers of iPad-only
> users, there’s also a substantial population of dual-use customers for whom
> both tablets and conventional PCs are now part of daily life.
> 
> I see the lull in iPad sales as a coming down to reality after unrealistic
> expectations, a realization that iPads aren’t as ready to replace PCs as
> many initially hoped.
> 
> In short, Gassée is arguing that tablet sales have hit a wall, and that the
> iPad needs to grow more Mac-like capabilities for advanced tasks.
> 
> Gassée’s piece spawned an interesting thread on Twitter[1], in which Benedict
> Evans argued[2]:
> 
> Posit: slow iPad sales are worse news for the PC market: implies phones can
> take the greater share of PC use cases.
> 
> I find that compelling. We might have overestimated the eventual role of
> tablets and underestimated the role of phones — and the whole argument is
> further muddled by the industry-wide move toward 5-inch-ish phone displays.
> ★ [3]
> 
> Links:
> [1]: https://twitter.com/gassee/status/457953543349993475 (link)
> [2]: https://twitter.com/BenedictEvans/status/458091975627907073 (link)
> [3]: http://daringfireball.net/linked/2014/04/21/gassee-ipad (link)

I would think that it's because many of the people who want an iPad 
already have one.  HDTV companies are also puzzled as to the reason why 
they are not selling as swiftly as they were a few years back.  Most 
people don't upgrade a gadget simply because theirs is old, they wait 
until there is a significant functional upgrade, or their old gadget 
breaks.  Many analysts don't want to admit this because they would, in 
essence, be admitting that there is a plateau for every market and 
that's not good for the companies they stump for.

To me the functional difference between a phone and a tablet is quite 
minimal, though the user experience is vastly different.

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#2446

On 2014-04-22, Oregonian Haruspex <bob_davis_retired@yahoo.com> wrote:
> On 2014-04-22 11:51:54 +0000, RS Wood said:
> I would think that it's because many of the people who want an iPad
> already have one.  HDTV companies are also puzzled as to the reason
> why they are not selling as swiftly as they were a few years back.
> Most people don't upgrade a gadget simply because theirs is old, they
> wait until there is a significant functional upgrade, or their old
> gadget breaks.  Many analysts don't want to admit this because they
> would, in essence, be admitting that there is a plateau for every
> market and that's not good for the companies they stump for.
>
> To me the functional difference between a phone and a tablet is quite
> minimal, though the user experience is vastly different.
>

You're probably right.  But just to play the devil's advocate, it's
tempting to try to conclude that consumers have reached and now
understand the limits of these devices the promotors are trying to
herald as the beginning of a new, post-PC era.  Sure, tablets can do
lots of useful things, but people prefer the pocket portability of their
smart phones and we've reached peak tablet.

I could be totally wrong though, and probably am.  I'm planning on
fitting out a new office soon and for staff I'm thinking seriously about
tablets first.  My first choice? That fatty new 12" Samsung Galaxy Tab
for which I posted a link earlier.  That plus a bluetooth keyboard can
do about everything I need from a half-dozen office bees.

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