Groups > comp.lang.java.programmer > #33539

Re: A good news

From	Martin Gregorie <martin@address-in-sig.invalid>
Newsgroups	comp.lang.java.programmer
Subject	Re: A good news
Date	2016-01-26 22:45 +0000
Organization	A noiseless patient Spider
Message-ID	<n88sv5$2u2$1@dont-email.me> (permalink)
References	<n7tuag$c7k$26@dont-email.me> <n7u3mo$6d6$1@dont-email.me> <ca45ffe5-c2f0-421e-bea6-a245880bf16e@googlegroups.com> <n7u9g8$q5m$1@dont-email.me> <04a8b563-3f7c-4b13-9f70-7ec86a519960@googlegroups.com>

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On Tue, 26 Jan 2016 06:22:39 -0800, Eric Douglas wrote:

> On Friday, January 22, 2016 at 5:15:21 PM UTC-5, Martin Gregorie wrote:
>> On Fri, 22 Jan 2016 13:59:10 -0800, Eric Douglas wrote:
>> 
>> > On Friday, January 22, 2016 at 3:36:36 PM UTC-5, Martin Gregorie
>> > wrote:
>> >> 1957. Well, that was 60 decades ago and fusion power is *still*
>> >> 30-40 years away.
>> > 
>> > There have been reports of recent breakthroughs, some which suggest
>> > viable fusion power as soon as 2020.
>> 
>> Is that ITER by any chance? Thats scheduled to be completed by 2019,
>> but seems to be an engineering iteration rather than new physics:
>> AFAICT is basically an embiggened JET, but its completion cost is
>> likely to be massive. Three years into construction, which started in
>> 2013 its already 3x its estimated cost, having burnt through $US14
>> billion so far.
>> 
>> I'll believe commercial fusion power[1] when I see it unless its a
>> major scientific, rather an engineering, breakthrough - which ITER is
>> not.
>>  
>> [1] commercial = cheaper power than current fission plants can produce
>> and preferably no more expensive than wind.
> 
> http://www.nbcnews.com/tech/innovation/fusion-power-could-be-here-2020-
u-k-company-says-n475676
> 
> Viable by 2020, feeding a power grid by 2030, implemented global by
> 2050..

Sorry, but no.

ITER, experimental, 10:1 gain (50MW in, 500Mw thermal out). This has NO 
power generation capability because it will never have turbines or 
generators fitted. Its thermal output will be measured and disposed of. 
It is expected to start Deuterium/Tritium operation in 2027.

Followed by DEMO, 2-4 GW thermal out, 25:1 power gain, intended to be a 
prototype commercial thermal generator. Its not clear if this will be 
capable of generating electricity, i.e. will probably not have steam 
generation capability or a generator set fitted, but in any case it is 
not expected to be running before 2033. 

That's to be followed by PROTO which has, at earliest a post-2050 
timeline, though it may have power generation capability and is intended 
to be a *prototype* commercial fusion generator, but project plans for it 
seem hazy at best: after all if ITER has bugs, that will push both DEMO 
and PROTO back by an unknown amount of time. On grid by 2080? Who knows. 
Global use of fusion power before 2100? In your dreams most likely.

-- 
martin@   | Martin Gregorie
gregorie. | Essex, UK
org       |

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Re: A good news Martin Gregorie <martin@address-in-sig.invalid> - 2016-01-22 20:33 +0000
  Re: A good news Eric Douglas <e.d.programmer@gmail.com> - 2016-01-22 13:59 -0800
    Re: A good news Martin Gregorie <martin@address-in-sig.invalid> - 2016-01-22 22:12 +0000
      Re: A good news Eric Douglas <e.d.programmer@gmail.com> - 2016-01-26 06:22 -0800
        Re: A good news Martin Gregorie <martin@address-in-sig.invalid> - 2016-01-26 22:45 +0000

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