Groups | Search | Server Info | Keyboard shortcuts | Login | Register [http] [https] [nntp] [nntps]

Groups > comp.os.linux.advocacy > #627192 > unrolled thread

RecessionOnDemand.

Back to article view | Back to comp.os.linux.advocacy

Contents

  RecessionOnDemand. "Relf"  <Usenet@Jeff-Relf.Me> - 2022-11-03 19:31 -0700
    Re: RecessionOnDemand. rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2022-11-04 04:59 +0000
      "PID loop for sour owl shit" ?! "Relf"  <Usenet@Jeff-Relf.Me> - 2022-11-03 23:12 -0700
        Re: "PID loop for sour owl shit" ?! rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2022-11-04 16:10 +0000
          Democrats demand more bodyguards for them, less for the slums. "Relf"  <Usenet@Jeff-Relf.Me> - 2022-11-04 16:19 -0700
            Re: Democrats demand more bodyguards for them, less for the slums. RonB <ronb02NOSPAM@gmail.com> - 2022-11-06 11:59 +0000
              Mitt Romney is a deep blue Democrat. "Relf"  <Usenet@Jeff-Relf.Me> - 2022-11-06 04:46 -0800
                Re: Mitt Romney is a deep blue Democrat. RonB <ronb02NOSPAM@gmail.com> - 2022-11-07 11:56 +0000
          Re: "PID loop for sour owl shit" ?! chrisv <chrisv@nospam.invalid> - 2022-11-05 12:01 -0500
            Re: "PID loop for sour owl shit" ?! rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2022-11-05 19:02 +0000
              Re: "PID loop for sour owl shit" ?! chrisv <chrisv@nospam.invalid> - 2022-11-05 15:02 -0500
                Re: "PID loop for sour owl shit" ?! -hh <recscuba_google@huntzinger.com> - 2022-11-05 18:03 -0700
                  Re: "PID loop for sour owl shit" ?! rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2022-11-06 03:05 +0000
                    Re: "PID loop for sour owl shit" ?! -hh <recscuba_google@huntzinger.com> - 2022-11-05 21:07 -0700
                Re: "PID loop for sour owl shit" ?! rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2022-11-06 01:09 +0000
                  Re: "PID loop for sour owl shit" ?! -hh <recscuba_google@huntzinger.com> - 2022-11-05 18:26 -0700
                    Re: "PID loop for sour owl shit" ?! rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2022-11-06 02:52 +0000
                      Re: "PID loop for sour owl shit" ?! -hh <recscuba_google@huntzinger.com> - 2022-11-05 20:27 -0700
                        Re: "PID loop for sour owl shit" ?! rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2022-11-06 18:48 +0000
                          Re: "PID loop for sour owl shit" ?! chrisv <chrisv@nospam.invalid> - 2022-11-06 14:10 -0600
                            For ~70 years now, we've been losing proxy wars against China & Russia. "Relf"  <Usenet@Jeff-Relf.Me> - 2022-11-06 20:12 -0800
                          Re: "PID loop for sour owl shit" ?! -hh <recscuba_google@huntzinger.com> - 2022-11-07 00:39 -0800

Page 1 of 2  [1] 2  Next page →

#627192 — RecessionOnDemand.

RecessionOnDemand: when the Fed inverts the yield curve ( to fight inflation ).

[toc] | [next] | [standalone]

#627195

On Thu, 03 Nov 2022 19:31:18 -0700 (Seattle), Relf wrote:

> RecessionOnDemand: when the Fed inverts the yield curve ( to fight
> inflation ).

After a century the Fed can't do a PID loop for sour owl shit. Helicopter 
Ben and his protege Yellen spent a decade trying to get inflation up to 2% 
and they finally succeeded -- as the elevator briefly passed the 2nd 
floor. Of course they were helped by the government dishing out a few 
trillion. 

[toc] | [prev] | [next] | [standalone]

#627196 — "PID loop for sour owl shit" ?!

You (rBowman) replied ( to me ):
> > RecessionOnDemand: when the Fed inverts the yield curve ( to fight inflation ).
> 
> After a century the Fed can't do a PID loop for sour owl shit.

"PID loop for sour owl shit" ?!

> Helicopter Ben and his protege Yellen 
> spent a decade trying to get inflation up to 2%

For me, last 18 years, inflation has been 9.4 %/year
(1000/200)^(1/(2023-2005)).

Early 2005, near the University of Washington, Seattle,
where I still live to this day, rent&utilities cost me 200 $/month.
Early 2023, rent&utilities will cost me ~1000 $/month.

Although my living conditions have improved, I cam't pay less.
Two can live as cheaply as one, provided they don't kill each other.

Globally, central bankers print their way out of debt;
there's a 0.000 % chance that anything else will happen.

[toc] | [prev] | [next] | [standalone]

#627207 — Re: "PID loop for sour owl shit" ?!

On Thu, 03 Nov 2022 23:12:14 -0700 (Seattle), Relf wrote:

> ou (rBowman) replied ( to me ):
>> > RecessionOnDemand: when the Fed inverts the yield curve ( to fight
>> > inflation ).
>> 
>> After a century the Fed can't do a PID loop for sour owl shit.
> 
> "PID loop" ?!

https://www.ni.com/en-us/innovations/white-papers/06/pid-theory-
explained.html


> "for sour owl shit" ?!

A woodsy expansion on 'they don't know shit'.

Their slow response summed up by Yellen's 'Gee, who would have thunk there 
would be inflation?' means the error between their preferred 2% number and 
the actual inflation rate means they'll do 75 point increases well into 
next year.

Personally, a deflationary recession is just fine. I bought a 6 month CD 
this week that pays more than 0.10%. That's nice and all but the reason 
behind it isn't. The same goes for my SS 'raise' that the dumb doddering 
fool 'running' the country thinks was his doing. 

[toc] | [prev] | [next] | [standalone]

#627226 — Democrats demand more bodyguards for them, less for the slums.

Re: The SS 'raise' that Biden says was his doing.

It ain't sour owl shit, it wouldn't pay my rent.

Democrats demand more bodyguards for them, less for the slums;
they've become the party of the (clueless) rich.

[toc] | [prev] | [next] | [standalone]

#627288 — Re: Democrats demand more bodyguards for them, less for the slums.

On 2022-11-04, Relf <Usenet@Jeff-Relf.Me> wrote:
> Re: The SS 'raise' that Biden says was his doing.
>
> It ain't sour owl shit, it wouldn't pay my rent.
>
> Democrats demand more bodyguards for them, less for the slums;
> they've become the party of the (clueless) rich.

Both parties are the parties of the clueless rich. I remember when Mitt 
Romney's wife claimed they were "not rich."

-- 
Freedom. Use it or lose it.

[toc] | [prev] | [next] | [standalone]

#627289 — Mitt Romney is a deep blue Democrat.

You (RonB) replied ( to me ):
> > Democrats demand more bodyguards for them, less for the slums;
> > they've become the party of the (clueless) rich.
> 
> Both parties are the parties of the clueless rich. 
> I remember when Mitt Romney's wife claimed they were "not rich."

Mitt Romney is a deep blue Democrat pretending to be Republican.

Republicans are the least worst, which isn't saying much.

Being rich is _one_ way to live; it's not the _only_ way.

In an ideal world (HaHa), we'd celebrate our differences, 
instead of killing each other.

[toc] | [prev] | [next] | [standalone]

#627339 — Re: Mitt Romney is a deep blue Democrat.

On 2022-11-06, Relf <Usenet@Jeff-Relf.Me> wrote:
> You (RonB) replied ( to me ):
>> > Democrats demand more bodyguards for them, less for the slums;
>> > they've become the party of the (clueless) rich.
>> 
>> Both parties are the parties of the clueless rich. 
>> I remember when Mitt Romney's wife claimed they were "not rich."
>
> Mitt Romney is a deep blue Democrat pretending to be Republican.
>
> Republicans are the least worst, which isn't saying much.
>
> Being rich is _one_ way to live; it's not the _only_ way.
>
> In an ideal world (HaHa), we'd celebrate our differences, 
> instead of killing each other.

There are a lot of "Mitt Romney's" in the Republican Party (and Democrat 
Party). I don't care if someone is rich so long as they don't use their 
money to destroy businesses and cause massive layoffs, as Romney (the 
corporate raider) did. A super sleaze.

-- 
Freedom. Use it or lose it.

[toc] | [prev] | [next] | [standalone]

#627256 — Re: "PID loop for sour owl shit" ?!

rbowman wrote:

>Their slow response summed up by Yellen's 'Gee, who would have thunk there 
>would be inflation?' means the error between their preferred 2% number and 
>the actual inflation rate means they'll do 75 point increases well into 
>next year.
>
>Personally, a deflationary recession is just fine. I bought a 6 month CD 
>this week that pays more than 0.10%. 

10%  really?  I recently bought some I bonds.  They are getting 9.62%,
a fsck of a lot better than any of my other investments.  There's a
$10,000 yearly limit on them, though.

>That's nice and all but the reason 
>behind it isn't. The same goes for my SS 'raise' that the dumb doddering 
>fool 'running' the country thinks was his doing. 

I hate Brandon like I've never hated a president.  These "Democracy is
at stake in the election" lies are as shitty as they get.

[toc] | [prev] | [next] | [standalone]

#627262 — Re: "PID loop for sour owl shit" ?!

On Sat, 05 Nov 2022 12:01:59 -0500, chrisv wrote:

> rbowman wrote:
> 
>>Their slow response summed up by Yellen's 'Gee, who would have thunk
>>there would be inflation?' means the error between their preferred 2%
>>number and the actual inflation rate means they'll do 75 point increases
>>well into next year.
>>
>>Personally, a deflationary recession is just fine. I bought a 6 month CD
>>this week that pays more than 0.10%.
> 
> 10%  really?  I recently bought some I bonds.  They are getting 9.62%,
> a fsck of a lot better than any of my other investments.  There's a
> $10,000 yearly limit on them, though.

There is a decimal point in there... My bank's money market accounts pay a 
princely one tenth of one percent. The CD is 2.25 and the best rate in 
town. I'm old fashioned and don't really trust those online offers. I like 
to be able to walk over to a building and talk to a human.

I bought some I bonds before that went to electronic purchase only. After 
doing nothing for years they've finally come into their own. I never did 
understand the 10k cap. The old mantra was 'invest in America; buy US 
savings bonds'.  The new one must be 'We'd rather sell debt to China.'

[toc] | [prev] | [next] | [standalone]

#627264 — Re: "PID loop for sour owl shit" ?!

rbowman wrote:

> chrisv wrote:
>>
>> rbowman wrote:
>>>
>>>Personally, a deflationary recession is just fine. I bought a 6 month CD
>>>this week that pays more than 0.10%.
>> 
>> 10%  really?  I recently bought some I bonds.  They are getting 9.62%,
>> a fsck of a lot better than any of my other investments.  There's a
>> $10,000 yearly limit on them, though.
>
>There is a decimal point in there... My bank's money market accounts pay a 
>princely one tenth of one percent. The CD is 2.25 and the best rate in 
>town. I'm old fashioned and don't really trust those online offers. I like 
>to be able to walk over to a building and talk to a human.

Most of my cash is in an online savings account, currently paying 2.27
percent.  It sure is "nice", to watch my life savings lose about 10% a
year in buying power, without spending a dime.  It ain't gonna last
long, at this rate.

I can't understand why there is no investment that, at a minimum,
tracks inflation.  It's gotta be possible, they just don't offer it to
us.

-- 
"The Linux/OSS community is totally AGAINST freedom of choice - unless
it's the choices they deem acceptable."  -  DumFSck, lying shamelessly

[toc] | [prev] | [next] | [standalone]

#627273 — Re: "PID loop for sour owl shit" ?!

On Saturday, November 5, 2022 at 4:02:39 PM UTC-4, chrisv wrote:
> rbowman wrote: 
> > chrisv wrote:
> >> rbowman wrote: 
> >>> 
> >>>Personally, a deflationary recession is just fine. I bought a 6 month CD 
> >>>this week that pays more than 0.10%. 
> >> 
> >> 10% really? I recently bought some I bonds. They are getting 9.62%, 
> >> a fsck of a lot better than any of my other investments. There's a 
> >> $10,000 yearly limit on them, though. 
> > 
> >There is a decimal point in there... My bank's money market accounts pay a 
> >princely one tenth of one percent. The CD is 2.25 and the best rate in 
> >town. I'm old fashioned and don't really trust those online offers. I like 
> >to be able to walk over to a building and talk to a human.

Which often is handy for non-standard requests.  I just cashed a check written
to me in a foreign currency and this was a lot better to do in person to explain.
Overall, I was kind of surprised at how much “hoop-jumping” it required, as 
well as the fee structures.

> Most of my cash is in an online savings account, currently paying 2.27 
> percent. 

Looks like Discover Bank (part of the credit card company) is at 2.5%.
It can be a pain to go chasing after rates .. found that my parents finances
were a complex rat maze of accounts because of doing this for years.

> It sure is "nice", to watch my life savings lose about 10% a 
> year in buying power, without spending a dime. It ain't gonna last 
> long, at this rate. 

Which is why one only holds a portion of one’s total in literal cash.
Challenge is that higher returns require longer time commitments.

> I can't understand why there is no investment that, at a minimum, 
> tracks inflation. It's gotta be possible, they just don't offer it to 
> us. 

The old Stock Market (self-promotional) adage is +8%/yr; what people
don’t say is that a third of the time (37 years of last ~100 years), the
corrections put you in the hole, for which one might need 18+ years
to break even after inflation (eg 1929-1952, etc), which is very tough if
you have the bad luck for the downturn to align with your retirement.
OTOH, if you’ve done really well with one’s planning & cash planning,
one can confidently retire even in just such a market downturn.

-hh

[toc] | [prev] | [next] | [standalone]

#627279 — Re: "PID loop for sour owl shit" ?!

On Sat, 5 Nov 2022 18:03:58 -0700 (PDT), -hh wrote:


> Which often is handy for non-standard requests.  I just cashed a check
> written to me in a foreign currency and this was a lot better to do in
> person to explain.
> Overall, I was kind of surprised at how much “hoop-jumping” it required,
> as well as the fee structures.

The NNTP server I use is individual.net at the University of Berlin. It 
had been free but then they started charging 10 Euros a year. No big deal 
but making the payment was painful. There was a European sort of Paypal 
called Click'n'Buy that always raised the red flags at MasterCard. They 
finally went to PayPal which saves all the fuss and bother but there is a 
transaction fee. On 10 Euros it's insignificant but it could be painful on 
larger transactions. 

It keeps me in tune with the European economy. It used to be around 15 USD 
but the last renewal was almost par. Soon it will be like when the Loonie 
was about 75 cents and you got a big wad of colorful Canadian money for 
$100, almost like free money. I always figured if I did the math for CDN / 
liter for gasoline I wouldn't be too happy. 

[toc] | [prev] | [next] | [standalone]

#627281 — Re: "PID loop for sour owl shit" ?!

On Saturday, November 5, 2022 at 11:05:12 PM UTC-4, rbowman wrote:
> On Sat, 5 Nov 2022 18:03:58 -0700 (PDT), -hh wrote: 
> 
> 
> > Which often is handy for non-standard requests. I just cashed a check 
> > written to me in a foreign currency and this was a lot better to do in 
> > person to explain. 
> > Overall, I was kind of surprised at how much “hoop-jumping” it required, 
> > as well as the fee structures.
>
> The NNTP server I use is individual.net at the University of Berlin. It 
> had been free but then they started charging 10 Euros a year. No big deal 
> but making the payment was painful. There was a European sort of Paypal 
> called Click'n'Buy that always raised the red flags at MasterCard. They 
> finally went to PayPal which saves all the fuss and bother but there is a 
> transaction fee. On 10 Euros it's insignificant but it could be painful on 
> larger transactions. 

Got a transaction confirmation call recently on a € charge; would dislike 
having to do that for a small monthly recurring.

I had recently received a £110 paper check (worth ~US$125ish) which was 
what I was referring to on benefits of in-person explaining… ended up finding 
that it was below the minimum transaction ($250) at one of our banks, who 
would have also charged a $25 handling fee.  Our other bank is no minimum, 
but charges a $17.50 fee if less than $1500…so ~10% on this one-off.

> It keeps me in tune with the European economy. It used to be around 15 USD 
> but the last renewal was almost par. Soon it will be like when the Loonie 
> was about 75 cents and you got a big wad of colorful Canadian money for 
> $100, almost like free money. I always figured if I did the math for CDN / 
> liter for gasoline I wouldn't be too happy.

Depends on which Country within EU, due to different tax levels, but I’d figure 
US$8/gal wouldn’t be surprising.

For keeping general tabs on currency rates, whenever I have leftover unusual 
currency from a trip, I usually exchange it to € because I’ll use that on a trip
to EU; doing this results in lower exchange fee losses because of fewer 
transactions (eg, vs it going back to US$ for a few months, and then later 
over to €) and gives me a snapshot on exchange rates…or I just use XE.COM

-hh

[toc] | [prev] | [next] | [standalone]

#627274 — Re: "PID loop for sour owl shit" ?!

On Sat, 05 Nov 2022 15:02:35 -0500, chrisv wrote:


> Most of my cash is in an online savings account, currently paying 2.27
> percent.  It sure is "nice", to watch my life savings lose about 10% a
> year in buying power, without spending a dime.  It ain't gonna last
> long,
> at this rate.

The credit union has a 1 year CD at 2.5% but given the volatility of the 
economy the extra 0.25% isn't worth locking in for a year. I doubt that 
the rate will be lower than 2.25 in six months, possibly higher.

I used to go over to the bank every year to make an IRA contribution. We'd 
joke about moving money from one interest free account to another. 

Oh for those simple times when a passbook savings account paid 3.5%, you 
got an electric carving knife for opening it, and the entire damn economy 
wasn't based on the Wall Street casino. 

[toc] | [prev] | [next] | [standalone]

#627276 — Re: "PID loop for sour owl shit" ?!

On Saturday, November 5, 2022 at 9:09:09 PM UTC-4, rbowman wrote:
>
> The credit union has a 1 year CD at 2.5% but given the volatility of the 
> economy the extra 0.25% isn't worth locking in for a year. I doubt that 
> the rate will be lower than 2.25 in six months, possibly higher. 

If you’re reasonably sure you won’t need the money for a year, especially 
if the early withdrawal penalty is low, it’s a “free money” opportunity 
to not ignore.  Thats why I’m considering adding a short rate ladder for
after the I-Bond cap.

-hh

[toc] | [prev] | [next] | [standalone]

#627278 — Re: "PID loop for sour owl shit" ?!

On Sat, 5 Nov 2022 18:26:43 -0700 (PDT), -hh wrote:

> If you’re reasonably sure you won’t need the money for a year,
> especially if the early withdrawal penalty is low, it’s a “free money”
> opportunity to not ignore.  Thats why I’m considering adding a short
> rate ladder for after the I-Bond cap.


It's not free money if the 6 month CD renews a 3% while your money spends 
6 months of the year at 2.5%. I lived through the '70s. That is the toxic 
part of inflation. Nobody wants to look at a long term investment. It's a 
bitch selling a ROI on capital improvements when the money can be parked 
in a bank at 12% or more. 

Carter bought the pig in a poke on that one but it really was Nixon's wage 
and price controls unwinding that were the root cause. When I read about a 
'cap' on oil prices I have a vague memory of seeing that movie before. 

[toc] | [prev] | [next] | [standalone]

#627280 — Re: "PID loop for sour owl shit" ?!

On Saturday, November 5, 2022 at 10:52:37 PM UTC-4, rbowman wrote:
> On Sat, 5 Nov 2022 18:26:43 -0700 (PDT), -hh wrote: 
> 
> > If you’re reasonably sure you won’t need the money for a year, 
> > especially if the early withdrawal penalty is low, it’s a “free money” 
> > opportunity to not ignore. Thats why I’m considering adding a short 
> > rate ladder for after the I-Bond cap.
>
> It's not free money if the 6 month CD renews a 3% while your money spends 
> 6 months of the year at 2.5%.

Didn’t think that was the comparison being made; I saw it as passbook
savings at ~0.1% vs a CD at 2%/etc, not a “CD today” vs “CD later.”

Even with the CD timing question, it depends on how much interest is lost if
one cashes out before the term. If the newer CD rate is good enough (and 
passbook savings is lousy enough), the surrender charges may be worth it.

>  I lived through the '70s. That is the toxic part of inflation. 

Not quite comparable, as that period went into stagflation.

> Nobody wants to look at a long term investment. It's a bitch 
> selling a ROI on capital improvements when the money can be 
> parked in a bank at 12% or more. 

Sure, but considering that the theory of high Fed rates is to slow down 
the economy, then only the most compelling ROI investments merit funding.

> Carter bought the pig in a poke on that one but it really was Nixon's wage 
> and price controls unwinding that were the root cause. When I read about 
> a 'cap' on oil prices I have a vague memory of seeing that movie before.

The cap is on Russian sales, to wage economic war on them for Ukraine.  
There’s also a plan for an oil price floor ($75/bbl?) vis SPR purchasing, 
intended to provide market stability for oil infrastructure investments for 
corporations.

-hh

[toc] | [prev] | [next] | [standalone]

#627297 — Re: "PID loop for sour owl shit" ?!

On Sat, 5 Nov 2022 20:27:42 -0700 (PDT), -hh wrote:

>  Nobody wants to look at a long term investment. It's a bitch selling a
>> ROI on capital improvements when the money can be parked in a bank at
>> 12% or more.
> 
> Sure, but considering that the theory of high Fed rates is to slow down
> the economy, then only the most compelling ROI investments merit
> funding.

I see that era as a watershed moment. In the US much of the capital 
equipment had been acquired during WWII. It was at the end of life and new 
technologies like CNC and robotics were coming available.  

https://www.automate.org/a3-content/joseph-engelberger-unimate

The Unimate was just the start. We were setting up an automated system for 
molding watt-hour meter bases at a GE plant, and I would go to watch the 
Unimates in the diecast area. That was the future.

Then the oil embargo and subsequent disruption came. Suddenly capital 
investment in the future was dropped in favor of cutting operational 
costs, the payroll being the prime target. The migration started, first to 
the southern US states, then Mexico, and ultimately Asia. The US machine 
tool business dried up and blew away. 

The grand new scheme of a service economy was introduced. We could do away 
with the grimy process of making stuff in smokestack plants and make a 
living taking in each others laundry. 

So here we are now...  

[toc] | [prev] | [next] | [standalone]

#627299 — Re: "PID loop for sour owl shit" ?!

rbowman wrote:

>The grand new scheme of a service economy was introduced. We could do away 
>with the grimy process of making stuff in smokestack plants and make a 
>living taking in each others laundry. 
>
>So here we are now...  

Indeed, dependant upon our greatest rival and threat to make damn-near
everything for us.  It was our industrial capacity that won WWII.  

Maybe our wokeness will win WWIII.  The Chinese will "misgender"
someone, and we'll cancel them.

-- 
"For some reason the mindless droids here equate anything open source
with somehow being technically superior."  -  trolling fsckwit
"Ezekiel", lying shamelessly

[toc] | [prev] | [next] | [standalone]

Page 1 of 2  [1] 2  Next page →

Back to top | Article view | comp.os.linux.advocacy

csiph-web