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Ten-Only Counting and the Insurance Bet

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On Tuesday, April 19, 2016 at 12:59:04 PM UTC-4, ions...@gmail.com wrote:
> * The new reversed card counting strategy considers the minus (negative) count, as opposed to the "traditional" plus-c(o)unt systems. The negative counts are far more favorable to DOUBLE DOWN hands, the most advantageous situations for blackjack players. There is a high percentage of double down sequences: 4+6, 5+5, 5+6, even 3+6, 4+5. Or, 9+2, 8+2/3, 7+2/3/4/A.
> 
> * We simply count the Ten-valued cards as 1, 2, 3,.., as they are dealt. We don't have to remember the previous rounds. We don't even count the Aces, as they become also 1-values (serving the purpose of doubling down).
> 
> What you gonna do, casinos? Hire new "consultants" to chase the 'reversed counters'?
> 
> http://saliu.com/bbs/messages/274.html
> (Blackjack Reversed Card Counting System)
> 
> Ion Saliu,
> Founder of Blackjack Mathematics
> "A good man is an axiomatic man; an axiomatic man is a happy man. Be axiomatic!"


Now, keeping track of the Tens-only serves a good purpose as regards INSURANCE BETTING.

• In the ‘Counting System In-Reverse’: The larger the amount of Tens OUT (removed), the higher degree of certainty DC to get a DOUBLE-DOWN hand in the next round.
• Inversely, for the ‘Insurance Bet’: The larger the amount of Tens LEFT (REMAINING) in THIS round, the higher degree of certainty to win the ‘Insurance Bet’. 
• We consider the cutoff value to be ONE THIRD of Tens removed from the deck. There are 2 cards per hand for each player and the dealer. Total cards dealt: 16.
• For example, if there are 7 players plus the dealer, the cutoff value is 16/3 = 5 Tens OUT in the first two cards.
• A ‘positive’ (favorable!) count is everything UNDER the cutoff value. In the example above, if the ‘10-count’ is (5 – 2), it is recommended to take insurance.	
• A ‘10-count’ figure of 5 or above: Do not take insurance (house advantage is 12% on average).

Read more detailed instructions:

http://forums.saliu.com/blackjack-natural-odds-probability.html#insurance
(Formulas to calculate all blackjack odds, probabilities of blackjack natural 21, insurance, double down hands, pairs to split, house edge, favorable bets.)

http://forums.saliu.com/card-counting-blackjack.html#reversedcounting
(Mathematics of Reversed Card-Counting Blackjack Strategy, Systems)

If you haven’t grasped blackjack basic strategy (BBS) yet, this free resource is guaranteed to teach you BBC in a week:

http://saliu.com/bbs/messages/399.html
(Learn the best blackjack basic strategy with color-coded charts for all black jack decisions: Double down, split pairs, hit or draw, stand, stay.)


Ion Saliu,
Blackjackologist At-Large

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