Groups | Search | Server Info | Keyboard shortcuts | Login | Register [http] [https] [nntp] [nntps]

Groups > comp.os.linux.misc > #68467 > unrolled thread

More on Chinas population.

Back to article view | Back to comp.os.linux.misc

Contents

  More on Chinas population. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-06-06 22:35 +0100
    Re: More on Chinas population. rbowman <bowman@montana.com> - 2025-06-07 01:09 +0000
    Re: More on Chinas population. CtrlAltDel <Altie@BHam.com> - 2025-06-07 05:07 +0000
      Re: More on Chinas population. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-06-07 11:03 +0100
        Re: More on Chinas population. CtrlAltDel <Altie@BHam.com> - 2025-06-07 22:12 +0000
          Re: More on Chinas population. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-06-08 10:17 +0100
    Re: More on Chinas population. Stéphane CARPENTIER <sc@fiat-linux.fr> - 2025-06-07 10:42 +0000
    Re: More on Chinas population. "Carlos E.R." <robin_listas@es.invalid> - 2025-06-07 13:27 +0200
      Re: More on Chinas population. The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> - 2025-06-07 13:24 +0100

#68467 — More on Chinas population.

This is a reddit post which summarised the situation as far as it can be:



The only source for China’s population being 1.4-1.5 billion is China 
itself. No other source has ever verified this claim. Literally no one 
knows what China's real population is except for China's leaders who may 
well be overstating the population for countless reasons such as to look 
stronger than they are. Data that comes out of China has always been 
considered unreliable because democracy, transparency, and freedom of 
the press do not exist in China. Demographers such as Yi Fuxian stated 
that China's population was closer to 1.2 billion than the official 1.4 
billion. China has had a 1 child policy for almost 40 years from 
1979-2015. A fertility rate of 2.1 is needed just to keep the population 
the same - so how could China gain 300 million from 1990-2020 when its 
overall fertility rate was only about 1.5? And that figure is based off 
official statistics - the real fertility rate could be as low as 1.0 as 
noted by experts like Yi Fuxian.

Western countries kept gaining population despite low fertility rates 
because of immigration - China does not get any immigrants - so how 
could its population rise from 1.1 billion in 1990 to 1.4 billion in 
2020? How could China have gained 300 million with a low fertility rate 
and no massive scale immigration? Some will say that China's population 
growth still had momentum but other countries like India had 860 million 
in 1990 and had 1.4 billion by 2020 despite a far higher fertility rate 
of 3.0 and more momentum. How is it possible that China's population 
grew similarly to India despite a far lower fertility rate and less 
momentum? Even taking into account life expectancy does not explain 
things as the life expectancy in China only rose by 10 years from 
1990-2020 while it rose higher in India by 12 years in the same time 
period. The death rate in China is also a lot higher than in India due 
to high corruption, pollution, and suicides. China also lost at least 
millions if not tens of millions if not hundreds of millions to the 
coronavirus and suffered more from Covid than other countries.

I will present some videos that you do not have to or even need to watch 
- but I recommend the videos by Lei’s Real Talk as she presents 
substantial evidence and reasoning for her claims.

This video titled "How I used AI to calculate China’s real population" 
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftcLM3502_8&t=31s) by Lei's Real Talk 
states that when the official fertility rate of 1.7 from 1990-2020 was 
used for ChatGPT's population calculator - China's population should 
have dropped from 1.14 billion in 1990 to 890 million in 2020 instead of 
increasing to 1.41 billion like in the official statistics. The same 
method was applied to India and it found that the population should have 
increased from 870 million to 1.43 billion which was almost the same as 
India's official population of 1.38 billion. So it seems like India's 
population statistics are more accurate. It is suspicious that China 
still has a larger population than India in 2020 despite a way lower 
fertility rate, greater emigration to other countries, and higher death 
rate.

That same video decided to use the likely lower than officially reported 
fertility rate for China between 2000-2010 of 1.1 and the population 
calculator calculated that China's real population for 2020 was only 695 
million as opposed to the official 1.41 billion. All of that is not 
taking into account Covid deaths.

This video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rankZJu3K1g - estimates 
that China lost between 200-600 million to Covid. China had experienced 
the disappearance of more than 21 million cell phone accounts all the 
way back in early 2020 when Covid started to spread which might indicate 
a high death toll from Covid and this was only the start of Covid about 
5 years ago - since then, hundreds of millions of weak and vulnerable 
old people could have died due to Covid.

It is believed that China's economy might only be 40% of the official 
statistics due to the fact that economic growth is correlated with 
increased electricity consumption and yet - the amount of night lights 
from China seen by satellites does not correlate with economic growth, 
this video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5A5Eu0ra3I - goes into 
detail. If China's population is only 40% of the official figures - that 
would explain why China's economy is only 40% the size of the official 
economic data.

The Russians even conducted their own study in which they added up all 
the officially stated population of cities in China and got 280 million 
inhabitants and assuming that the ratio of urban-rural inhabitants in 
China is about 1-1 - they concluded that China's real population is 
between 500-800 million. This video by Lei's Real Talk explains it - 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3zhCCCYVeA&t=76s - the Japanese also 
came to the same conclusion as the Russians after realizing that salt 
consumption in China halved which could indicate a significant decline 
in the population due to demographic crisis and Covid deaths.

This other video by Lei’s Real Talk titled "China’s vanishing population 
and the lie of 1.4 billion people" 
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gsIg-_5Yl_8) states that 200-500 
million died from Covid and shows video evidence of depopulated cities 
and sparsely populated rural areas.

This video by Rei's Real Talk titled "The Vanishing Billion: Exposing 
China’s Population Myth" (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFbMWq-xvXU) 
summarizes the previous videos she made about China's population and 
states that China might only have 300 million people remaining.

So, if the fertility rate of 1.7 between 1990-2020 is used - than 
China's real population is not 1.5 billion but 900 million. If the 
fertility rate is further adjusted to be 1.1 between 2000-2010 than the 
population is 700 million. If the 200-500 million death toll from Covid 
is taken into account - than the population is only 200-500 million - 
one can take the median number of that range which is 350 million. All 
of this means that the United States could have more people than China.

What are the counter-arguments in favor of trusting the official 
population statistics? So far, I heard none. Some say that the official 
statistics must be correct but these same people present no logical 
reason as to why. Of course, the fertility rate could have been higher 
than reported. Not everyone abided by the one child policy and that 
policy only applied to crowded urban areas and not rural areas or to 
ethnic minorities. And a fertility rate of 2.1 is not necessary as the 
population can still rise if the number of births exceeds the number of 
deaths - but could China's real population still be a few hundred 
million less than 1.4 billion - like 1-1.2 billion? Most likely.

So how likely is the idea that China has less than 400 million people? 
It is possible but unlikely. Know that China was not being transparent 
with its Covid death toll. In 2020, they claimed that only 3,000 died 
from Covid in all of China when many crematoriums reported that they 
alone - were each burning 2,000 bodies each day. China has been setting 
up more crematoriums while the average city and village reported far 
more deaths than births despite China claiming that the overall 
population rose past 1.4 billion.

You could argue that it is IMPOSSIBLE to fake a country's population on 
such a scale for so long without anyone noticing - but remember - only 
China counts its own population, literally no one else is allowed to. I 
personally believe that China's population is between 1-1.2 billion. 
What do you think? Please present facts and logical reasoning if you 
want to strengthen your argument.


-- 
"An intellectual is a person knowledgeable in one field who speaks out 
only in others...”

Tom Wolfe

[toc] | [next] | [standalone]

#68470

On Fri, 6 Jun 2025 22:35:41 +0100, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

> <snip>
</snip>

iow, who the fuck knows but let's use AI to create some answers because AI 
is so dependable.

[toc] | [prev] | [next] | [standalone]

#68485

On Fri, 6 Jun 2025 22:35:41 +0100, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

> This is a reddit post which summarised the situation as far as it can
> be:
> 
> 
> 
> The only source for China’s population being 1.4-1.5 billion is China
> itself. No other source has ever verified this claim. Literally no one
> knows what China's real population is except for China's leaders who may
> well be overstating the population for countless reasons such as to look
> stronger than they are. Data that comes out of China has always been
> considered unreliable because democracy, transparency, and freedom of
> the press do not exist in China. 

First of all, this outlandish statement about democracy, transparency, and 
freedom of the press not existing in China reeks of the patriarchy, is 
heavily influenced by toxic masculinity, and is lacking any substantive 
equality while leaning heavily into outright misogyny and bigotry.

Overall, Chinese society is based on patrilineal descent, yet there are 
pockets of matrilineal sub-groups within China, such as the Mosuo people, 
who defy the overall trend and hint at an ancient structure of society 
different than the one viewed in present times in China.

Using language influenced by internalized sexism, such as this ridiculous 
Reddit post you quoted does, can only harm, insult, degrade, and 
physically endanger women in China and further promote complementarianism 
and highlights your narrow and hollow view of other cultures and peoples.

[toc] | [prev] | [next] | [standalone]

#68489

On 07/06/2025 06:07, CtrlAltDel wrote:
> On Fri, 6 Jun 2025 22:35:41 +0100, The Natural Philosopher wrote:
> 
>> This is a reddit post which summarised the situation as far as it can
>> be:
>>
>>
>>
>> The only source for China’s population being 1.4-1.5 billion is China
>> itself. No other source has ever verified this claim. Literally no one
>> knows what China's real population is except for China's leaders who may
>> well be overstating the population for countless reasons such as to look
>> stronger than they are. Data that comes out of China has always been
>> considered unreliable because democracy, transparency, and freedom of
>> the press do not exist in China.
> 
> First of all, this outlandish statement about democracy, transparency, and
> freedom of the press not existing in China reeks of the patriarchy, is
> heavily influenced by toxic masculinity, and is lacking any substantive
> equality while leaning heavily into outright misogyny and bigotry.
> 
> Overall, Chinese society is based on patrilineal descent, yet there are
> pockets of matrilineal sub-groups within China, such as the Mosuo people,
> who defy the overall trend and hint at an ancient structure of society
> different than the one viewed in present times in China.
> 
> Using language influenced by internalized sexism, such as this ridiculous
> Reddit post you quoted does, can only harm, insult, degrade, and
> physically endanger women in China and further promote complementarianism
> and highlights your narrow and hollow view of other cultures and peoples.

Golly,. I did hit a nerve.

Well after having made it abundantly clear you know less about china 
than you do about my pet dog, I can only rely with a giant

WOW!

at your ignorance and sheer bigotry.


-- 
You can get much farther with a kind word and a gun than you can with a 
kind word alone.

Al Capone

[toc] | [prev] | [next] | [standalone]

#68514

On Sat, 7 Jun 2025 11:03:41 +0100, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

> On 07/06/2025 06:07, CtrlAltDel wrote:
>> On Fri, 6 Jun 2025 22:35:41 +0100, The Natural Philosopher wrote:
>> 
>>> This is a reddit post which summarised the situation as far as it can
>>> be:
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> The only source for China’s population being 1.4-1.5 billion is China
>>> itself. No other source has ever verified this claim. Literally no one
>>> knows what China's real population is except for China's leaders who
>>> may well be overstating the population for countless reasons such as
>>> to look stronger than they are. Data that comes out of China has
>>> always been considered unreliable because democracy, transparency, and
>>> freedom of the press do not exist in China.
>> 
>> First of all, this outlandish statement about democracy, transparency,
>> and freedom of the press not existing in China reeks of the patriarchy,
>> is heavily influenced by toxic masculinity, and is lacking any
>> substantive equality while leaning heavily into outright misogyny and
>> bigotry.
>> 
>> Overall, Chinese society is based on patrilineal descent, yet there are
>> pockets of matrilineal sub-groups within China, such as the Mosuo
>> people, who defy the overall trend and hint at an ancient structure of
>> society different than the one viewed in present times in China.
>> 
>> Using language influenced by internalized sexism, such as this
>> ridiculous Reddit post you quoted does, can only harm, insult, degrade,
>> and physically endanger women in China and further promote
>> complementarianism and highlights your narrow and hollow view of other
>> cultures and peoples.
> 
> Golly,. I did hit a nerve.
> 
> Well after having made it abundantly clear you know less about china
> than you do about my pet dog, I can only rely with a giant
> 
> WOW!
> 
> at your ignorance and sheer bigotry.


You are spreading ignorance and misunderstanding of a culture, by quoting 
this Reddit post, that has no resemblance to yours, while using democracy, 
freedom of the press, and transparency as a bludgeoning tool.

An imperious "Western" mindset beset by overbearing and intrusive ideas 
about social and political hegemony over those not like your group is what 
led the English to cruelly and inhumanely and uncivilly attack, enslave, 
and subjugate nation after nation after nation isn't it?

Your type of illiterate blabbering is obscene and nasty and I would 
imagine you are a rather boorish and uncouth while simultaneously being 
not far removed from a common street urchin.    

-- 
All of Usenet is in a psychological, emotional, and antisocial free fall
into an abyss and fully immersed in a drowning pool of mental illness.

[toc] | [prev] | [next] | [standalone]

#68535

On 07/06/2025 23:12, CtrlAltDel wrote:
> On Sat, 7 Jun 2025 11:03:41 +0100, The Natural Philosopher wrote:
> 
>> On 07/06/2025 06:07, CtrlAltDel wrote:
>>> On Fri, 6 Jun 2025 22:35:41 +0100, The Natural Philosopher wrote:
>>>
>>>> This is a reddit post which summarised the situation as far as it can
>>>> be:
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> The only source for China’s population being 1.4-1.5 billion is China
>>>> itself. No other source has ever verified this claim. Literally no one
>>>> knows what China's real population is except for China's leaders who
>>>> may well be overstating the population for countless reasons such as
>>>> to look stronger than they are. Data that comes out of China has
>>>> always been considered unreliable because democracy, transparency, and
>>>> freedom of the press do not exist in China.
>>>
>>> First of all, this outlandish statement about democracy, transparency,
>>> and freedom of the press not existing in China reeks of the patriarchy,
>>> is heavily influenced by toxic masculinity, and is lacking any
>>> substantive equality while leaning heavily into outright misogyny and
>>> bigotry.
>>>
>>> Overall, Chinese society is based on patrilineal descent, yet there are
>>> pockets of matrilineal sub-groups within China, such as the Mosuo
>>> people, who defy the overall trend and hint at an ancient structure of
>>> society different than the one viewed in present times in China.
>>>
>>> Using language influenced by internalized sexism, such as this
>>> ridiculous Reddit post you quoted does, can only harm, insult, degrade,
>>> and physically endanger women in China and further promote
>>> complementarianism and highlights your narrow and hollow view of other
>>> cultures and peoples.
>>
>> Golly,. I did hit a nerve.
>>
>> Well after having made it abundantly clear you know less about china
>> than you do about my pet dog, I can only rely with a giant
>>
>> WOW!
>>
>> at your ignorance and sheer bigotry.
> 
> 
> You are spreading ignorance and misunderstanding of a culture, by quoting
> this Reddit post, that has no resemblance to yours, while using democracy,
> freedom of the press, and transparency as a bludgeoning tool.
> 
Look. The reddit post was there purelk to assemble a set of links to 
other media sources that highlight the issue

> An imperious "Western" mindset beset by overbearing and intrusive ideas
> about social and political hegemony over those not like your group is what
> led the English to cruelly and inhumanely and uncivilly attack, enslave,
> and subjugate nation after nation after nation isn't it?
> 
just Wow!

> Your type of illiterate blabbering is obscene and nasty and I would
> imagine you are a rather boorish and uncouth while simultaneously being
> not far removed from a common street urchin.
> 

just wow!

You really are revealing your true colors today.

Not one word about the message, just vitriol against the messenger


-- 
Climate Change: Socialism wearing a lab coat.

[toc] | [prev] | [next] | [standalone]

#68493

Le 06-06-2025, The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> a écrit :
> This is a reddit post which summarised the situation as far as it can be:

There are far better sources of information.

For French readers, there is Le Gorafi:
<https://www.legorafi.fr/>
For English readers, there is The Onion:
<https://theonion.com/>

-- 
Si vous avez du temps à perdre :
https://scarpet42.gitlab.io

[toc] | [prev] | [next] | [standalone]

#68498

On 2025-06-06 23:35, The Natural Philosopher wrote:
> This is a reddit post which summarised the situation as far as it can be:
> 
> 
> 
> The only source for China’s population being 1.4-1.5 billion is China 
> itself. No other source has ever verified this claim. Literally no one

I am not interested, unless you use Linux to do the calculation and 
describe how Linux is used.

This is offtopic here.


-- 
Cheers, Carlos.

[toc] | [prev] | [next] | [standalone]

#68500

On 07/06/2025 12:27, Carlos E.R. wrote:
> On 2025-06-06 23:35, The Natural Philosopher wrote:
>> This is a reddit post which summarised the situation as far as it can be:
>>
>>
>>
>> The only source for China’s population being 1.4-1.5 billion is China 
>> itself. No other source has ever verified this claim. Literally no one
> 
> I am not interested, unless you use Linux to do the calculation and 
> describe how Linux is used.
> 
> This is offtopic here.
> 
> 
I think it started with a discussion on Chinas use of satellites. It is 
relevant to how they are developing their IT to cope with a massive 
population crash
.


-- 
Renewable energy: Expensive solutions that don't work to a problem that 
doesn't exist instituted by self legalising protection rackets that 
don't protect,  masquerading as public servants who don't serve the public.

[toc] | [prev] | [standalone]

Back to top | Article view | comp.os.linux.misc

csiph-web