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| From | Ian Kelly <ian.g.kelly@gmail.com> |
| Date | Wed, 10 Jun 2015 12:02:48 -0600 |
| Subject | Re: Testing random |
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On Wed, Jun 10, 2015 at 11:03 AM, Thomas 'PointedEars' Lahn <PointedEars@web.de> wrote: > Jussi Piitulainen wrote: > >> Thomas 'PointedEars' Lahn writes: >>> Jussi Piitulainen wrote: >>>> Thomas 'PointedEars' Lahn writes: >>>>> 8 3 6 3 1 2 6 8 2 1 6. >>>> >>>> There are more than four hundred thousand ways to get those numbers >>>> in some order. >>>> >>>> (11! / 2! / 2! / 2! / 3! / 2! = 415800) >>> >>> Fallacy. Order is irrelevant here. >> >> You need to consider every sequence that leads to the observed counts. > > No, you need _not_, because – I repeat – the probability of getting a > sequence of length n from a set of 9 numbers whereas the probability of > picking a number is evenly distributed, is (1∕9)ⁿ [(1/9)^n, or 1/9 to the > nth, for those who do to see it because of lack of Unicode support at their > system]. *Always.* *No matter* which numbers are in it. *No matter* in > which order they are. AISB, order is *irrelevant* here. *Completely.* Order is relevant because, for instance, there are n differently ordered sequences that contain n-1 1s and one 2, while there is only one sequence that contains n 1s. While each of those individual sequences are indeed equiprobable, the overall probability of getting a sequence that contains n-1 1s and one 2 is n times the probability of getting a sequence that contains n 1s. The context of this whole thread is about the probability of getting a sequence where every number occurs at least once. The order that they occur in doesn't matter, but the number of possible permutations does, because every one of those permutations is a distinct sequence contributing an equal amount to the total overall probability. The probability of 123456789 and 111111111 are equal. The probability of a sequence containing all nine numbers and a sequence containing only 1s are *not* equal.
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Testing random Cecil Westerhof <Cecil@decebal.nl> - 2015-06-07 08:27 +0200
Re: Testing random Thomas 'PointedEars' Lahn <PointedEars@web.de> - 2015-06-07 12:40 +0200
Re: Testing random Chris Angelico <rosuav@gmail.com> - 2015-06-07 21:51 +1000
Re: Testing random Thomas 'PointedEars' Lahn <PointedEars@web.de> - 2015-06-07 17:51 +0200
Re: Testing random Chris Angelico <rosuav@gmail.com> - 2015-06-08 02:25 +1000
Re: Testing random Thomas 'PointedEars' Lahn <PointedEars@web.de> - 2015-06-07 18:36 +0200
Re: Testing random Chris Angelico <rosuav@gmail.com> - 2015-06-08 02:44 +1000
Re: Testing random Thomas 'PointedEars' Lahn <PointedEars@web.de> - 2015-06-07 20:23 +0200
Re: Testing random Chris Angelico <rosuav@gmail.com> - 2015-06-08 04:52 +1000
Re: Testing random Thomas 'PointedEars' Lahn <PointedEars@web.de> - 2015-06-07 21:41 +0200
Re: Testing random Jussi Piitulainen <jpiitula@ling.helsinki.fi> - 2015-06-07 22:08 +0300
Re: Testing random Thomas 'PointedEars' Lahn <PointedEars@web.de> - 2015-06-07 21:29 +0200
Re: Testing random random832@fastmail.us - 2015-06-07 15:44 -0400
Re: Testing random Thomas 'PointedEars' Lahn <PointedEars@web.de> - 2015-06-07 22:09 +0200
Re: Testing random random832@fastmail.us - 2015-06-07 16:41 -0400
Re: Testing random Thomas 'PointedEars' Lahn <PointedEars@web.de> - 2015-06-07 22:59 +0200
Re: Testing random Steven D'Aprano <steve@pearwood.info> - 2015-06-08 11:26 +1000
Re: Testing random random832@fastmail.us - 2015-06-07 21:34 -0400
Re: Testing random Chris Angelico <rosuav@gmail.com> - 2015-06-08 11:42 +1000
Re: Testing random MRAB <python@mrabarnett.plus.com> - 2015-06-08 02:49 +0100
Re: Testing random random832@fastmail.us - 2015-06-07 21:57 -0400
Re: Testing random Jussi Piitulainen <jpiitula@ling.helsinki.fi> - 2015-06-08 10:40 +0300
Re: Testing random Thomas 'PointedEars' Lahn <PointedEars@web.de> - 2015-06-10 19:03 +0200
Re: Testing random sohcahtoa82@gmail.com - 2015-06-10 10:52 -0700
Re: Testing random Jussi Piitulainen <jpiitula@ling.helsinki.fi> - 2015-06-10 23:00 +0300
Re: Testing random Ian Kelly <ian.g.kelly@gmail.com> - 2015-06-10 12:02 -0600
Re: Testing random Thomas 'PointedEars' Lahn <PointedEars@web.de> - 2015-06-12 23:32 +0200
Re: Testing random alister <alister.nospam.ware@ntlworld.com> - 2015-06-12 21:46 +0000
Re: Testing random random832@fastmail.us - 2015-06-12 17:52 -0400
Re: Testing random Ian Kelly <ian.g.kelly@gmail.com> - 2015-06-12 16:00 -0600
Re: Testing random Thomas 'PointedEars' Lahn <PointedEars@web.de> - 2015-06-13 00:09 +0200
Re: Testing random sohcahtoa82@gmail.com - 2015-06-12 15:55 -0700
Re: Testing random random832@fastmail.us - 2015-06-12 18:57 -0400
Re: Testing random Mark Lawrence <breamoreboy@yahoo.co.uk> - 2015-06-13 08:53 +0100
Re: Testing random random832@fastmail.us - 2015-06-10 14:26 -0400
Re: Testing random Ned Batchelder <ned@nedbatchelder.com> - 2015-06-07 14:21 -0700
Re: Testing random Thomas 'PointedEars' Lahn <PointedEars@web.de> - 2015-06-16 21:18 +0200
Re: Testing random random832@fastmail.us - 2015-06-16 16:23 -0400
Re: Testing random Ned Batchelder <ned@nedbatchelder.com> - 2015-06-16 13:48 -0700
Re: Testing random Thomas 'PointedEars' Lahn <PointedEars@web.de> - 2015-06-16 23:57 +0200
Re: Testing random sohcahtoa82@gmail.com - 2015-06-16 15:30 -0700
Re: Testing random Ian Kelly <ian.g.kelly@gmail.com> - 2015-06-16 16:58 -0600
Re: Testing random Laura Creighton <lac@openend.se> - 2015-06-17 11:28 +0200
Re: Testing random Ned Batchelder <ned@nedbatchelder.com> - 2015-06-16 16:26 -0700
Re: Testing random Thomas 'PointedEars' Lahn <PointedEars@web.de> - 2015-06-17 01:45 +0200
Re: Testing random sohcahtoa82@gmail.com - 2015-06-16 17:36 -0700
Re: Testing random Chris Angelico <rosuav@gmail.com> - 2015-06-17 11:01 +1000
Re: Testing random Ethan Furman <ethan@stoneleaf.us> - 2015-06-16 18:32 -0700
Re: Testing random Mark Lawrence <breamoreboy@yahoo.co.uk> - 2015-06-17 09:41 +0100
Re: Testing random Grant Edwards <invalid@invalid.invalid> - 2015-06-17 14:04 +0000
Re: Testing random Ian Kelly <ian.g.kelly@gmail.com> - 2015-06-17 09:01 -0600
Re: Testing random MRAB <python@mrabarnett.plus.com> - 2015-06-17 01:42 +0100
Re: Testing random Thomas 'PointedEars' Lahn <PointedEars@web.de> - 2015-06-17 08:53 +0200
Re: Testing random Christian Gollwitzer <auriocus@gmx.de> - 2015-06-17 09:22 +0200
Re: Testing random Chris Angelico <rosuav@gmail.com> - 2015-06-17 17:28 +1000
Re: Testing random Tim Golden <mail@timgolden.me.uk> - 2015-06-17 08:30 +0100
Re: Testing random Cecil Westerhof <Cecil@decebal.nl> - 2015-06-17 11:57 +0200
Re: Testing random Steven D'Aprano <steve+comp.lang.python@pearwood.info> - 2015-06-17 01:36 +0000
Re: Testing random Laura Creighton <lac@openend.se> - 2015-06-17 12:33 +0200
Re: Testing random Steven D'Aprano <steve@pearwood.info> - 2015-06-17 22:47 +1000
Re: Testing random Laura Creighton <lac@openend.se> - 2015-06-17 15:50 +0200
Re: Testing random Steven D'Aprano <steve+comp.lang.python@pearwood.info> - 2015-06-17 01:35 +0000
Re: Testing random Jussi Piitulainen <jpiitula@ling.helsinki.fi> - 2015-06-17 07:41 +0300
Re: Testing random Steven D'Aprano <steve@pearwood.info> - 2015-06-08 11:11 +1000
Re: Testing random Ian Kelly <ian.g.kelly@gmail.com> - 2015-06-07 11:07 -0600
Re: Testing random Chris Angelico <rosuav@gmail.com> - 2015-06-08 03:20 +1000
Re: Testing random "C.D. Reimer" <chris@cdreimer.com> - 2015-06-07 10:36 -0700
Re: Testing random Steven D'Aprano <steve@pearwood.info> - 2015-06-08 04:28 +1000
Re: Testing random Chris Angelico <rosuav@gmail.com> - 2015-06-08 04:40 +1000
Re: Testing random Steven D'Aprano <steve@pearwood.info> - 2015-06-08 04:24 +1000
Re: Testing random Jonas Wielicki <jonas@wielicki.name> - 2015-06-07 12:41 +0200
Re: Testing random Steven D'Aprano <steve@pearwood.info> - 2015-06-07 22:52 +1000
Re: Testing random Steven D'Aprano <steve@pearwood.info> - 2015-06-07 23:06 +1000
Re: Testing random Peter Otten <__peter__@web.de> - 2015-06-07 15:35 +0200
Re: Testing random Thomas 'PointedEars' Lahn <PointedEars@web.de> - 2015-06-07 18:36 +0200
Re: Testing random Peter Otten <__peter__@web.de> - 2015-06-07 18:48 +0200
Re: Testing random Thomas 'PointedEars' Lahn <PointedEars@web.de> - 2015-06-07 22:15 +0200
Re: Testing random Steven D'Aprano <steve@pearwood.info> - 2015-06-08 11:35 +1000
Re: Testing random Christian Gollwitzer <auriocus@gmx.de> - 2015-06-07 14:53 +0200
Re: Testing random Dennis Lee Bieber <wlfraed@ix.netcom.com> - 2015-06-07 11:04 -0400
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