Path: csiph.com!au2pb.net!usenet.blueworldhosting.com!feeder01.blueworldhosting.com!border2.nntp.dca1.giganews.com!Xl.tags.giganews.com!border1.nntp.dca1.giganews.com!nntp.giganews.com!local2.nntp.dca.giganews.com!nntp.earthlink.com!news.earthlink.com.POSTED!not-for-mail NNTP-Posting-Date: Mon, 23 Nov 2015 13:38:01 -0600 Message-ID: <56536B19.791D@ix.netcom.com> Date: Mon, 23 Nov 2015 11:38:01 -0800 From: The Starmaker Reply-To: starmaker@ix.netcom.com X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.04Gold (WinNT; U) MIME-Version: 1.0 Newsgroups: alt.astronomy,rec.arts.sf.written,sci.physics,sci.physics.relativity Subject: Re: 'Based On Nonsense' References: <564F6B1C.6890@ix.netcom.com> <564F6DC6.127E@ix.netcom.com> <56511756.777C@ix.netcom.com> <3f7ed398-e182-49b5-a563-1099f741f854@googlegroups.com> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Lines: 26 X-Usenet-Provider: http://www.giganews.com NNTP-Posting-Host: 45.49.183.72 X-Trace: sv3-gU3q49wbZFgVHjlKUTi4QxUcweG9HkUgFjcQd0/LAEo3y5cRbOJW8c14CS8EMO+baqTTvvGadovIzYj!zuM96x/Kc4b042vULUgDj2Ab5MbMIzFkjvzSXBmp9ipKuKz3OUBZW9H7Clg5pReAvJ6FddeS4Doi!cWOaINDw X-Abuse-and-DMCA-Info: Please be sure to forward a copy of ALL headers X-Abuse-and-DMCA-Info: Otherwise we will be unable to process your complaint properly X-Postfilter: 1.3.40 X-Original-Bytes: 2473 Xref: csiph.com alt.astronomy:279363 rec.arts.sf.written:427578 sci.physics:534875 sci.physics.relativity:370728 Gary Harnagel wrote: > > On Monday, November 23, 2015 at 10:02:43 AM UTC-7, tjrob137 wrote: > > > > I believe that the consensus among physicists who have thought about > > this is that the existence of alien life is not only possible, but > > reasonably probable (but none of us quantify that). > > Fred Hoyle DID present his quantification: > > "Life cannot have had a random beginning ... The trouble is that there are > about two thousand enzymes, and the chance of obtaining them all in a > random trial is only one part in 1040,000, an outrageously small > probability that could not be faced even if the whole universe consisted > of organic soup." - Fred Hoyle > > I think that he was just a bit pessimistic, and so does everyone at SETI > or they wouldn't be there :-) Frank Drake tried it a different way and > came up with a few civilizations at our stage of development in our > galaxy right now. Maybe we'll get a better read on the probability by > studying Tabby's star ... Frank Drake calculations is WRONG. It is based on Mars having life on it's surface, and it does not...so that means you need to throw Frank Drake's calculations into the garbage where it belongs.