Path: csiph.com!eternal-september.org!feeder.eternal-september.org!mx02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail From: Uncle Steve Newsgroups: alt.folklore.computers Subject: Re: I Feel Old Date: Sun, 03 Jan 2016 12:11:30 -0500 Organization: Friends of the Galactic Collective Lines: 41 Message-ID: <7db2ed440bca8c0-13432@gmail.com> References: <9dcde262-7129-4a8f-b034-105b67d61cf5@googlegroups.com> <20160101213359.c4fa91b81ade324004208803@eircom.net> <6080e724-4d4a-4f96-a0b6-06d6c86668d8@googlegroups.com> Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Injection-Info: mx02.eternal-september.org; posting-host="d937dfc22cef0e4be584b6a1fbc7f9e9"; logging-data="1723"; mail-complaints-to="abuse@eternal-september.org"; posting-account="U2FsdGVkX18+y7/kWGpr99v/v+2neSYq" User-Agent: nn 6.7.3 Content-Length: 1774 Cancel-Lock: sha1:Il+EC/UsRFlgbtcCcfEVUfbo6Fw= Xref: csiph.com alt.folklore.computers:155851 On Fri, Jan 01, 2016 at 03:57:43PM -0800, Quadibloc wrote: > On Friday, January 1, 2016 at 3:00:04 PM UTC-7, Ahem A Rivet's Shot wrote: > > > Yes we have come a very long way indeed. It makes you wonder what > > another 35 years will bring. > > Of course, the pace of progress is slowing a bit. Dennard scaling has already > gone by the boards, and Moore's Law has only a bit more life left in it. Well, we haven't hit the atomic wall yet. While we seem to be reaching the limits of bulk manufacturing processes, the atom-by-atom approach remains to be explored. This represents something of a discontinuity to the stately progression of Moore's law, but I am too ignorant of science to project its limitation in terms of processor clock speed, information density, heat dissipation, etc. > However, other areas of technological progress are about to start their sigmoid > curves. > > So maybe 35 years from now, computers will only be a "little" better than they > are today (that will still be a significant improvement, just not as much as > further exponential growth would indicate)... but that CISPR stuff might lead > to cures for nearly all genetic diseases, and basically eternal youth through > rebuilding telomeres... I came to the realization some time ago that the natural apotheosis of medicine was the eventual cure of disease and ageing. Looking back it seems a rather obvious projection of capability, and I wonder whether some of the ancients (in Rome, for instance) looked upon technological developments of their age and imagined in some dim way the potential we now see looming. > One way or another, the future will be exciting. That's one way of putting it. -- We all cannot be intelligent, but at least we can all be polite.